Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..


Paul

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
    Just now, blizzard81 said:

    Looking less and less likely that we will get the stress free option of a straight forward direct scandi to Greenie link up.

    Only if you take the Op as gospel rather than the trend.

    Generally without looking at the 850 temps most of us would be rubbing our hands at the thought of this chart at T+165. Longer term great. Better than a sinking Scandi.

    GFSOPEU18_165_1.thumb.png.8d53c825366eb02d22f02a77cec9c9fb.png

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
    • Replies 3.8k
    • Created
    • Last Reply
    Posted
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)

    Agreement between the big 2 now of winds turning southeasterly and dragging up milder air by Monday.

    Hopefully upgrades for the longer term tomorrow as it's starting to look like another 2 day event

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
    2 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

    Agreement between the big 2 now of winds turning southeasterly and dragging up milder air by Monday.

    Hopefully upgrades for the longer term tomorrow as it's starting to look like another 2 day event

    Thursday to Sunday.... 2 day event?

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Rotherham
  • Location: Rotherham
    4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    1) At 108, theres a swathe of -10 uppers across the SE,  2) you've gone and jinxed it for us now - lol,  3) Theres unlikely to be a snow FEST anywhere this weekend, 4) I like to see the SE get a dumping as well anyway and love to see snow fans everywhere get tonked!.

    Lol love sending out the fishing rod mate for the southerners! Looking at the heights and flow id suggest there will be more snow for us than you think, slow moving wintry showers springs to mind. Will be interesting if them charts get within Euro4 range

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT

    T180- mild?

    IMG_2382.thumb.PNG.7b5ba2fa020c11ff3aa8d7b2cc51adc0.PNG

    no chance

    - theta chart

    IMG_2383.thumb.PNG.4250778306e964699fca59a496587a96.PNG

    dewpoints subzero- - maxima around 3c, sub zero windchill....

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    On 05/02/2017 at 22:09, Steve Murr said:

    @sebastiaan1973

    hiya - any plans in the near future of getting the following on Meteociel -

    UKMO 168

    UKMO 120/144/168 850's

    best

    steve

    Hello, sorry for the late answer : unfortunately we don't have access to this data freely (and it costs > 100000€ yearly) . Whenever it is available, it will be available on the site the day after :)

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)

    Certainly some cutting into Greenland. .which needs eyeing from here on through raw-output. ..

    And oddly short waving could aid us for once ' in regards to backdoor. .or perhaps front door Greenland heights establishment. ...

    gfsnh-0-174.png

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Wombwell, South Yorkshire (75m / 246ft ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Summer Sunshine / Winter Snow
  • Location: Wombwell, South Yorkshire (75m / 246ft ASL)
    9 minutes ago, inghams85 said:

    Notice how things are quieter because the South East isn't getting as low uppers or isn't within the cold pool lol excellent run for Central/North East England though! Snow fest fri/sat/Sunday here!

    Now now let's not get IMBY!  I am a Southerner living oop North so why can't we all share the cold and snow (if it arrives?!)

    2 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

    Agreement between the big 2 now of winds turning southeasterly and dragging up milder air by Monday.

    Hopefully upgrades for the longer term tomorrow as it's starting to look like another 2 day event

    Well it will be at least five days between Wednesday and Sunday and anything after is FI so not really a two day event no!

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: west yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: extreme weather
  • Location: west yorkshire
    2 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

    Agreement between the big 2 now of winds turning southeasterly and dragging up milder air by Monday.

    Hopefully upgrades for the longer term tomorrow as it's starting to look like another 2 day event

    2 day event really. Sorry but that's not correct. Starting to turn colder Wednesday onwards lasting at least till Sunday on latest gfs output. And even if we do get southerly sourced air trust me it will still be cold at the surface. And as some of the experts on here are saying short term pain for long term gain. 

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    2 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

    Agreement between the big 2 now of winds turning southeasterly and dragging up milder air by Monday.

    Hopefully upgrades for the longer term tomorrow as it's starting to look like another 2 day event

    Not sure what charts you're looking at to be honest,

    And next Monday is a week away, Total speculation at that range with the current set up.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Rayleigh, Essex. 68m asl
  • Location: Rayleigh, Essex. 68m asl
    2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    1) At 108, theres a swathe of -10 uppers across the SE,  2) you've gone and jinxed it for us now - lol,  3) Theres unlikely to be a snow FEST anywhere this weekend, 4) I like to see the SE get a dumping as well anyway and love to see snow fans everywhere get tonked!.

    Fantastic response. There really is something for everyone with this impending cold spell.  All models agree on a cold spell and that in itself is odd as we spend 80% of winter debating which model is wrong. Sure they all have different endings but some of us here, hopefully all of us, are going to get some of the white stuff. And enough to enjoy with out families and friends.

    And folks, if and when it arrives, don't be on here looking at when it ends, but ENJOY

     

     

     

     

     

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: OSLO, Norway
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Storms, Heat, Thunderstorms
  • Location: OSLO, Norway

    As wonderful as it is seeing precipitation charts for next weekend and the prospect of a few snow showers or even a trough, a quick reminder of what was showing for today, this time last week should be noted, to what is actually verifying. Take a look, given the fantastic inputs from the more knowledgable on here of the background signals, we stand our best shot at something to salvage this tease of a winter within the next few weeks... I look forward to comparing next Mondays output to what is currently progged by the models :)

     

     

     

    Screen Shot 2017-02-06 at 22.28.52.png

     

    Screen Shot 2017-02-06 at 22.33.31.png

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT

    186 flow allignment- look at the angle of isolines - as posted earlier lets put the greenland high theory to the test

    IMG_2384.thumb.PNG.9bfcfa697a940c5429563c834b0e2773.PNG

     

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire

    Liking the look of the updated fax chart - that front over southern scandi has our name on it for snow Saturday :)

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
    2 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

    Thursday to Sunday.... 2 day event?

    Yes it's clear from all models it 4*days at present. You know the saying you can bring a horse to water but you can't make him drink it:)

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

    So is everyone now looking west at T+201?

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Barrow-upon-Soar, Nth Leics, 50mASL
  • Weather Preferences: Deep snow, biting winds, frigid temperatures and thunderstorms
  • Location: Barrow-upon-Soar, Nth Leics, 50mASL
    38 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

    Take a few seconds to look at this and when our next m-ld spell comes you will appreciate what a special chart this is

    graphe3_1000_262.0400085449219_32.459999

    We will not be out of the freezer too long, if at all, looking at the trend

    Wow! That's the best graph I've ever seen

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: near dalmellington E ayrshire 302m asl
  • Weather Preferences: mediterranean summer
  • Location: near dalmellington E ayrshire 302m asl

    cant see us getting a better chance than this with a super block to our east and a dead atlantic if we get nothing from this we may as well just give up well its snowing already here for the past few hours and im confident many others will get the same in the next week:D

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
    1 minute ago, chionomaniac said:

    So is everyone now looking west at T+201?

    Too busy waiting for the blasted 120hr fax chart to update lol

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL

    Just look at the state of the Atlantic, for what its worth it won't be turning milder even in a SE'rly flow with heights trying to build towards Greenland.

    gfs-0-216.png?18

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL

    DP for next Wed, colder than 850s.  Might look warm but it won't feel it!!

    IMG_4219.PNG

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT

    For those old romantics after their meal in the eve - no moonlight strolls-

    windchill !

    IMG_2385.thumb.PNG.3a50768f700e3dc6529632c092029042.PNG

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    6 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

    186 flow allignment- look at the angle of isolines - as posted earlier lets put the greenland high theory to the test

    IMG_2384.thumb.PNG.9bfcfa697a940c5429563c834b0e2773.PNG

     

    Hi Steve, sorry to be a nuisance. But what is an 'isoline'? I understand isobars, isotherms and isoclines...But isolines have me completely baffled.:cc_confused:

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL

    If we can get a direct Northerly from this it'll have some serious bite to it !!IMG_4221.thumb.PNG.0d444ecfe6cc50192756049c5d33c73e.PNG

    IMG_4222.PNG

    Link to post
    Share on other sites

    Archived

    This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

    Guest
    This topic is now closed to further replies.
    ×
    ×
    • Create New...