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Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL

    Cheeky upgrade at T78 with the Scandy high slightly further North and stronger, and the Easterly flow also stronger which may aid some shower activity!! 850s as a result are lower.

    IMG_4213.PNG

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    1 minute ago, winterof79 said:

    Take a few seconds to look at this and when our next m-ld spell comes you will appreciate what a special chart this is

    graphe3_1000_262.0400085449219_32.459999

    We will not be out of the freezer too long, if at all, looking at the trend

    And it just illustrates my point further wrt the blip while retrogression occurs.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
    1 minute ago, winterof79 said:

    Take a few seconds to look at this and when our next m-ld spell comes you will appreciate what a special chart this is

    graphe3_1000_262.0400085449219_32.459999

    We will not be out of the freezer too long, if at all, looking at the trend

    Yeah that's very good, and I imagine the mild less cold) blip won't be so mild this run!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.

    Worst case scenario continental cold SElys and the atlantic goes for a long holiday until the autumn.

    Recm2161.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    50 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

    In my opinion ensembles are a complete waste of time in this type of setup, if we can't nail down details on the ops within 3 days, lower resolution ensemble suites certainly won't have a good handle on it.

    Both the GFS and ECM suites have been flopping about like floundering fish, hardly inspires confidence.

    I don't think so,W...If nothing else they illustrate the point at which the 'reliable' becomes FI?

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    Posted
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL

    Perfect!

    gfs-1-102.png?18

    Even as far west as Ireland now into coldest uppers which makes me happy! :)

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

    Critically tonight the position of the low to our SW is slightly further west - that helps the easterly flow make it further west and prevents the azores high ridging too far east. More amplitude to the north west towards Iceland with the extending Azores high

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    Posted
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL

    gfs-0-108.png?18

    GFS continues to push everything further west and a much better angle of heights pushing north!

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

    snow certainly possible Saturday! for west midlands, E areas favoured of course

    gfs-1-108.png?18

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    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)

    Gfs 18z illustrating the mass importance of that hp cell format. 

    Placement the difference between both' spread progression of 850's and depth of minima. 

    Continues to improve on each run....a good sign.

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    Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.

    Strictly not model related, as I am not quoting any particular NWP or any particular run, but overall, this has the feeling of a rather special term of weather from a cold lover's perspective, and I feel that we are on the cusp and precipice of something remarkable. My reasoning? I've seen the various models display predictions like this before and with supportive shows by the MJO too... It's all just too good. It just has too strong of a likelihood. 

    I'm beginning to switch my attention to lamp post watching at the weekend.... I'll enjoy this for what it is... The beginning of a cold spell! Have fun all. Hope you squirreled your nuts away!

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    Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
    8 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

    Critically tonight the position of the low to our SW is slightly further west - that helps the easterly flow make it further west and prevents the azores high ridging too far east. More amplitude to the north west towards Iceland with the extending Azores high

    This has the effect of introducing warmer uppers further north into Europe towards the south east but I look at this as being a short term loss for a long term gain.

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    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)

    Now thats at 120 a perfectly placed arm of waa into Iceland. .and height limpit at Scandinavia. .

    Can we get the link....

    Then cutting of heights into Greenland. ..its feasible. !?

    gfs-0-120.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
    2 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

    Well, if the price for some weekend snowfall is a blob of relative mildness, next week...isn't that price worth paying?:D

    Wasnt it only yday that the Meto were talkibg about a cold and blocked February? These updates have chopped and changed on a fairly regular basis this Winter

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    Posted
  • Location: Wellington, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms/Snow/Hail & Strong Winds
  • Location: Wellington, Somerset
    3 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

    Now thats at 120 a perfectly placed arm of waa into Iceland. .and height limpit at Scandinavia. .

    Can we get the link....

    The cutting of heights into Greenland. ..its feasible. !?

    gfs-0-120.png

    Its getting close! Lovely WAA

    GH.PNG

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    Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

    Edged toward GEM with the Atlantic profile so that sets the mind wondering.

    Further west instead of east Euro low is a different path forward though - as Chiono has hinted.

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    Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
    5 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

    This has the effect of introducing warmer uppers further north into Europe towards the south east but I look at this as being a short term loss for a long term gain.

    Looking less and less likely that we will get the stress free option of a straight forward direct scandi to Greenie link up.

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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey 105 m (top floor 120m)
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey 105 m (top floor 120m)

    Terribly exciting to see the computer models at the moment.

    Wonder if things will varify this time round?

    Always the risk of downgrades in such a volatile set-up

    Tempting to jump to conclusions but caution is the key for the next few days

    So let's see how this plays out, at least initially.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    2 minutes ago, inghams85 said:

    Notice how things are quieter because the South East isn't getting as low uppers or isn't within the cold pool lol excellent run for Central/North East England though! Snow fest fri/sat/Sunday here!

    Uppers are low enough down here for snow!

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    Posted
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL

    Even though uppers are higher dew points will certainly be low enough for wintry showers in that flow!

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    2 minutes ago, inghams85 said:

    Notice how things are quieter because the South East isn't getting as low uppers or isn't within the cold pool lol excellent run for Central/North East England though! Snow fest fri/sat/Sunday here!

    1) At 108, theres a swathe of -10 uppers across the SE,  2) you've gone and jinxed it for us now - lol,  3) Theres unlikely to be a snow FEST anywhere this weekend, 4) I like to see the SE get a dumping as well anyway and love to see snow fans everywhere get tonked!.

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    Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (Central)
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (Central)
    4 minutes ago, inghams85 said:

    Notice how things are quieter because the South East isn't getting as low uppers or isn't within the cold pool lol excellent run for Central/North East England though! Snow fest fri/sat/Sunday here!

    Erm, there's plenty of people in the SE posting on here thank you very much. 

    Things are looking great for most of the UK which is great. The more parts of the UK involved in any cold spell, the better. 

     

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