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Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
    2 minutes ago, booferking said:

    Would it not be cloudy in some locations?

    you could be right, plus it's quite a brisk SEly but it's hypothetical at this range..enjoy the deep cold first as that could last a while. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

    ECM Op has been among the mildest runs at day 10 of any output every run for the last 3 runs hasn't it?

    It will be again tonight - broken. :wink:

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    Posted
  • Location: Carmarthenshire
  • Location: Carmarthenshire
    6 minutes ago, Paceyboy said:

    FI still at 144hrs. I feel we are coming out of that mist at day 7-8 where retrogression will now feature more on the models due to MJO etc.

    I am still very encouraged. I reckon someone (South UK included) will see decent snow this weekend!

    The way things are at the moment FI is at about 72 hours ...

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    1 minute ago, Mucka said:

    ECM Op has been among the mildest runs at day 10 of any output every run for the last 3 runs hasn't it?

    It will be again tonight - broken. :wink:

    you would think so, but the eps were keen to bring the less cold upper way north into c Europe and the gefs mean lifts uppers above zero across the south uk by day 8 so I wouldn't be quite so dismissive. short term upgrades to snow potential and uncertain mid range continues to be the mantra

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    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)

    That's one seriously blocked outlook. 

    With ample chance' N/E...OR N/W.

    the zonal train has hit the buffers...big time..

     

    ECH1-216-1.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

    So which route do you want to take ECM??

    Euro high or Greenland high...

    Choice is yours

    ECH1-240.GIF?06-0

    And no, you can't choose both.

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
    2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    you would think so, but the eps were keen to bring the less cold upper way north into c Europe and the gefs mean lifts uppers above zero across the south uk by day 8 so I wouldn't be quite so dismissive. short term upgrades to snow potential and uncertain mid range continues to be the mantra

    It has been all over the place at 120/144, I give it 1% out at 240.

    (probably the kiss of death)

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    Posted
  • Location: Norway
  • Location: Norway
    1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

    So which route do you want to take ECM??

    Euro high or Greenland high...

    Choice is yours

    ECH1-240.GIF?06-0

    If there is an PV split ahead we see Greenland --- there are a few early signs

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    Posted
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level
    1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

    So which route do you want to take ECM??

    Euro high or Greenland high...

    Choice is yours

    ECH1-240.GIF?06-0

     

    "Who needs choices, I'm just gonna do both"

    Great ECM but like the last couple of days just seems to implode out in FI. Great GFS and UKMO though. Still not the widespread snow we're looking for but I feel like we've perhaps moved a step closer towards something a little more interesting.

    Beyond the retrogression signal is still there but I think that'll take at least a few more days before the models get to grips with it.

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    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl

    Damn the ECM. Sticks to its guns...more of a Euroslug than a Scandi high by day 10.:angry:

    ECM1-240-1.GIF

    ECM0-240-1.GIF

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    Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL

    ECM finishes worse than Devon Loch, with a nascent Greenland High and African plume combination.

    Really need to see it start showing some retrogression soon, otherwise this could be a cold snap rather than a spell. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    1 minute ago, snowray said:

    Damn the ECM. Sticks to its guns...more of a Euroslug than a Scandi high by day 10.:angry:

    ECM1-240-1.GIF

    ECM0-240-1.GIF

    From the hemispheric view it's a chart that would lead to people thinking spring had sprung...only to be plunged back into ice and snow a few days later. Trop vortex draining completely draining to Siberian side.

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    Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 286 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, Ice days, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 286 ft asl
    8 minutes ago, snowray said:

    Damn the ECM. Sticks to its guns...more of a Euroslug than a Scandi high by day 10.:angry:

    ECM1-240-1.GIF

    ECM0-240-1.GIF

    It's that trough hanging back SE of Greenland otherwise the two highs would link up..

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    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
    1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

    From the hemispheric view it's a chart that would lead to people thinking spring had sprung...only to be plunged back into ice and snow a few days later. Trop vortex draining completely draining to Siberian side.

    Big question, can the Greenland high start to dominate events from D10 onwards?

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    Just now, snowray said:

    Big question, can the Greenland high start to dominate events from D10 onwards?

    To me it's a no brainer. It has been a fairly well mapped out progression for a while. My only doubts have been over timing, I initially thought back end of Feb into March...but as ever we'll see.

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
    23 minutes ago, Long haul to mild said:

    If it called this Easterly first then fair enough, but I am still not convinced. The reason I am rather anti GEM is that, following some people saying how good it was, I tried to use it for trends over the summer and found it very inaccurate. It seemed to succumb to the same Atlantic based bias that the GFS suffers from. ECM was generally better but to be honest I have learned not to trust any FI output and tend to just use the UKMO nowadays, winter or summer.

     

    To be fair LHTM I had little time for it until about December - I found it offered very little of the false hope given by other models. But 2 in 3 of its runs this time last week were easterlies - another good call

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    The ECM looks chaotic past day 7. A series of shortwave interactions unlikely to be replicated.The ECM goes into the SD category, synoptic drivel!

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    Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk
    19 minutes ago, Mucka said:

    ECM Op has been among the mildest runs at day 10 of any output every run for the last 3 runs hasn't it?

    It will be again tonight - broken. :wink:

    Absolutely correct and I'd bin it retrogression is a strong possibility and plenty of lower heights slipping under the Scandi super block it's not going nowhere fast 

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    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
    1 hour ago, Tim Bland said:

    A nice kink in the flow in the south East on UKMO for Sunday would provide some light snow I would have thought ? 

    IMG_6129.thumb.JPG.bed02ae2e0736019b025000065499983.JPG

    In any other past winter, yes 100% snow, but with recent winters being such a let down and GFS showing sleet for SE and E Anglia....well who can say. We have to get them cold uppers over the whole country not just the borders and Scotland!

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    Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
    13 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

    To me it's a no brainer. It has been a fairly well mapped out progression for a while. My only doubts have been over timing, I initially thought back end of Feb into March...but as ever we'll see.

    If retrogression is to materialise in the 12 to 15 day timeframe, there must surely be signs in the extended ecm ensembles later on.

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    Posted
  • Location: Kesgrave, just East of Ipswich
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy winters, warm dry summers
  • Location: Kesgrave, just East of Ipswich
    5 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

    To be fair LHTM I had little time for it until about December - I found it offered very little of the false hope given by other models. But 2 in 3 of its runs this time last week were easterlies - another good call

    Easterlies are usually hard to predict so maybe it's a bit better than I've credited it with. I see it keeps with the Easterly theme next week too with more cold pools lurking, interesting times!

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    Posted
  • Location: West Kingsdown Kent
  • Location: West Kingsdown Kent
    2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    The ECM looks chaotic past day 7. A series of shortwave interactions unlikely to be replicated.The ECM goes into the SD category, synoptic drivel!

    They need to take it offline for a bit as they seem to have a few algorithms to rewrite. I wonder if the programmers (mathematicians) have metrology experience ? or the people with metrology experience are doing the programming... Or do they have some of both as it seems there is a bit lost in translation maybe?

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

    JMA also goes down the subsiding high route so it is some form of trend this evening. I think it's because rather than a tendency to split, the trop PV is shown to displace instead...at least initially. Upstream developments will become even more critical than usual in instances like these

    JN192-21.GIF?06-12

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    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL

    I'm just wondering if something is missing at the minute, sometimes in decent easterlies the pattern retrogression is so that an Easterly turns to a Northerly as heights build in Greenland, but the Ops seem to show Easterly to Southerly then potential Northerly!! If someone could upload P4 on the GEFS that plays the whole sequence that would be great, and that's what would be good to see and it's a pretty quick transition - P4 does have a fair bit of similarities to other ENS too.

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