Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..

[Weathizard]

144 shows some serious WAA heading north as well should pump the high up and make it even stronger if possible, the Atlantic is truly dead.

 

[Summer Sun]

1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

The GFS 6z had quite a strong wind  chill also any showers will get well inland. 

Same on the 12z

Colder still overnight

[Mucka]

Shows just how dire its performance has been of late.

Today/yesterday comparison.

Not saying today's 144 will verify as such but it will be a lot closer than yesterday's efforts.

 

Edit.

168 cold pool gone but very cold at surface and looking primed for retrogression to me.

Edited February 6, 2017 by Mucka

[Matty M]

1 minute ago, Mucka said:

Shows just how dire its performance has been of late.

Today/yesterday comparison.

Not saying today's 144 will verify as such but it will be a lot closer than yesterday's efforts.

I know that the inter day consistency looks dire from the perspective of the UK.... but if an alien came down and examined those two charts I am fairly certain they would say 'good job'. As they are really very similar. Obviously though the difference is huge for the UK.

[tight isobar]

The mass icelandic' high needs to hold and back heights at Scandinavia. 

Then things can progress further and allow' devloping pooling of cold/continental' and aid the draw of perhaps a more defined/sharper/even colder easterly later on.

[Long haul to mild]

30 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Nonsense. GEM far closer than other longer range models for critical calls this winter. Was the first model to go with any sort of easterly this time. It's called this cold pool spot on, just not with the depth of uppers.

OK, I will have to respectfully disagree on that. Not nonsense it my view, It followed up one of its cobra runs last week with a westerly dominated fast breakdown; I also followed it during last summer and found it to be generally poor.

Edited February 6, 2017 by Long haul to mild

[Weathizard]

We'd give anything for this chart most of winter let's be honest. 

Shame about the uppers!

[Summer Sun]

Still cold at ground level but look how far away those real cold 850's have gone

[Buzz]

2 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Shows just how dire its performance has been of late.

Today/yesterday comparison.

Not saying today's 144 will verify as such but it will be a lot closer than yesterday's efforts.

It's also further proof that people should stop taking as gospel any model output that is more than 72 hours out.

I guess that this evening most people will be saying how great the ECM is because it's showing what many want to in the short to medium term. I do though anticipate some moaning that 168 onwards isn't cold enough, but in the current situation that's looking much too far ahead (it's a week away for crying out loud).

[January Snowstorm]

The uppers do seem to dilute into next week. You would think for early Feb uppers would be colder

[chris pawsey]

9 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Nonsense. GEM far closer than other longer range models for critical calls this winter. Was the first model to go with any sort of easterly this time. It's called this cold pool spot on, just not with the depth of uppers.

Completely agree with this, the GEM has been a trend setter, agreed the depth of the cold pool has now watered down but one of the 1st models to call the easterly. I check the GEM regularly with regards to FI possibilities. 

[Summer Sun]

Certainly becoming less cold next week on this run from ECM looking at the 850's wind chill could well keep it feeling colder at ground level

Edited February 6, 2017 by Summer Sun

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

The uppers do seem to dilute into next week. You would think for early Feb uppers would be colder

not really, as air coming from the med, just hope it's dry, if so will still be cold!

[Frost HoIIow]

1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

Certainly becoming less cold next week on this run from ECM

If it wasn't over a week away I would take it more seriously, before then some interesting weather to come, us coldies deserve it we have been patient.

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

Certainly becoming less cold next week on this run from ECM

You would hardly notice though as it would still be cold / crisp at the surface with widespread sharp night frosts..win win

[Djdazzle]

On 05/02/2017 at 16:40, chicken soup said:

The most annoying phrase and cliché out of all the annoying phrases and clichés on this forum..countless times we have had the cold in and countless times the snow hasn't come.

Great run in the short term, but not great long term with the Scandy high sinking. But that's well into FI, so not that bothered - yet.

[booferking]

1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

You would hardly notice though as it would still be cold / crisp at the surface with widespread sharp night frosts..win win

Would it not be cloudy in some locations?

[Long haul to mild]

1 minute ago, chris pawsey said:

Completely agree with this, the GEM has been a trend setter, agreed the depth of the cold pool has now watered down but one of the 1st models to call the easterly. I check the GEM regularly with regards to FI possibilities. 

If it called this Easterly first then fair enough, but I am still not convinced. The reason I am rather anti GEM is that, following some people saying how good it was, I tried to use it for trends over the summer and found it very inaccurate. It seemed to succumb to the same Atlantic based bias that the GFS suffers from. ECM was generally better but to be honest I have learned not to trust any FI output and tend to just use the UKMO nowadays, winter or summer.

 

[Summer Sun]

Bit more of a southerly by D9

[Paceyboy]

FI still at 144hrs. I feel we are coming out of that mist at day 7-8 where retrogression will now feature more on the models due to MJO etc.

I am still very encouraged. I reckon someone (South UK included) will see decent snow this weekend!

[Cheshire Freeze]

4 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Great run in the short term, but not great long term with the Scandy high sinking. But that's well into FI, so not that bothered - yet.

Yes, the Scandi high sinking rather than retrogressing was a cluster in the GEFS. I'd say a minority but a significant one at that. 

This run wants to try and raise N Atlantic heights regardless. Looks caught in two minds...two conflicting signals?

Edited February 6, 2017 by CreweCold

[tight isobar]

Snap- highlights that atm' anythings possible after the weekend. 

Stunning Scandinavian heights just aligned completely wrong.

And this will be pivotal on stagnation of cold or quick mixing out....still lots to be modeled regarding cell placement. .

But before then cold-v-cold..and even snow likely. .for some. 

[Mucka]

ECM slowly getting there but still not convinced by the output after day 6.

At least it now still shows a E/SE flow out to 192 if a little underwhelming and I think sinking the high SE instead of it being pulled W/NW is incorrect still.

 

It is still playing catchup IMO.

 

 

 

[Gowon]

Shortwave drama..

[bluearmy]

As has been said time and time again, its as much about the troughing to our south as the ridging to our north. whilst the models faff around with that they will generate various ops around a broadly agreed route.  chasing the cold pool - see, told you its fun!

plenty of snowfall across the country on that ec op though deepest on hills further north and by day 7 its damp rather than white