Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..

[Seasonality]

45 minutes ago, Anon90 said:

Can't help but get a sense of deja vu here, I'm pretty sure the ECM was the first to suggest a warm up/the strat not really playing ball back February 2012 and it was proven correct.

You can say that in reverse though too though can't you where ECM was not correct can't you? You could be falling into the trap of confirmation bias due to expecting the worse outcome and thinking of a situation that validates your expectation. And @Alekos I see you constantly liking posts that suggest UK coldies will be disappointed, what are you up to you sly so and so? 

Anyway, here comes ECM!

[MattTarrant]

8 minutes ago, Frostbite1980 said:

I would also like to put a positive slant on things. When we were looking at the SSW all the comments were based on even if it does have an effect on the trop it could be the last 3rd of February that sees any cold response.......well it's only the 6th today and look at what we are facing.

Im not even saying this is to do with the SSW it may be just a bit of luck for a change but this is out of the blue and with the MJO plus a forecasted negative AO and the warming as well as very low sunspot activity (to name a few) this could just be the start of a long and at times very cold spell.

Even if it is a slow burner in terms of snow at least the ground will be nice and cold ready for any decent snow that may fall over the next few weeks :-)

All of this plus the Meto on side that this cold spell could last most of February is all very positive in my eyes.

I was having a tour of the Met Office on Saturday and asked one of the qualified Meteorologists if this Scandinavian High is the result of the SSW. He said it is highly likely, though I wouldn't trust him as much as the operational team meteorologists though.

Edited February 6, 2017 by MattTarrant

[Matty M]

A solid start to the EC. Nothing spectacular but looks probably better for cold prospects at this point (72hrs) than the other 2 major models.

 

[Frosty.]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

Huh? 6z had temps sub zero at night all through the weekend, how is that milsleading? Its a fact.

 

Eh? 6z had temps sub zero all through the weekend at night 12z has temps above, how is that misleading, its a fact!

Actually the Gfs 12z shows some places have temps below freezing where skies are clearer whilst others around +1c with snow..not bad really!

[Matty M]

Very cold by Friday, with some light snow grain/flurries likely to begin to edge into east of Ireland from Irish Sea....more intense showers likely along east coast of UK.

 

 

[NorthYorksWeather]

Brrrrr looking a tad chilly at 96hrs on tonight's ECM. 

Frosty bin lids throughout the UK!

[Banbury]

ECM @ 96 looking ok .............early days of course

[Stozzy]

I'll take this at 96hrs 

[Troubleatmill]

18 minutes ago, TEITS said:

Sorry but this post is so misleading I simply had to reply. Have you considered that the 12Z temps on Saturday night might be due to cloud cover rather than a downgrade in the overall pattern and upper temps?

 

Yep very true, looking at latest sat24 image the high pressure is a fairly cloudy one so not expecting many clear frosty nights as it stands.

http://en.sat24.com/en/it/infraPolair 

Edited February 6, 2017 by Nicholas B

[Frostbite1980]

ECM is showing a stronger high over Scandinavia and looks like better orientation to me?

also slightly lower heights in Southern Europe 

Edited February 6, 2017 by Frostbite1980

[tight isobar]

A nice oval hp cell at Scandinavia' allowing a more defined easterly flow to our shores.

Also a worthy point of note overcoming days is' moving across to the continental/german snaps via meteocial' when looking for air source/cold pooling and isobar infer. ..for more penatrative westward corrections.

Edited February 6, 2017 by tight isobar

[Frosty.]

9 minutes ago, Banbury said:

ECM @ 96 looking ok .............early days of course

Only ok? We need a new definition for ok I think

Edited February 6, 2017 by Frosty.

[SMU]

Big up the ECM 120 Greenhithe cold pool !! Yeah !

@chionomaniac

[tight isobar]

Oh go on then..

-8 850s widely. ...

And features in the flow...

Penatrative snow showers full on 'perhaps' !!!

[Summer Sun]

Bitterly cold ECM at t120

[Long haul to mild]

1 hour ago, Ali1977 said:

The GEM isn't bad with the cold pool hanging around to the East most of the run and in FI the high orientates itself well enough to bring in another large cold pool from Siberia - all way way out in FI of course.

Of all the things I've learned on here (and there are a great many) , up there with the most important is to take no notice of the GEM at all. It has more flip flops than Benidorm beach.

If we had believed the GEM at the end of last week, most of the Eastern half of the country would have been iced over and snow bound by this Wednesday!

[snowice]

6 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Big up the ECM 120 Greenhithe cold pool !! Yeah !

@chionomaniac

Don't forget the whole of the UK And Ireland.   - 8 uppers

Edited February 6, 2017 by snowice

[frosty ground]

1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

Bitterly cold ECM at t120

South East looks very cold.... 

[Lampostwatcher]

ecm = snow

[northwestsnow]

Ecm looks good! Esp the SE  i would have thought, surely some convection posibilities!

[Summer Sun]

Going to be a significant wind chill developing later this week too

[chicken soup]

1 minute ago, Lamposangel delightcher said:

ecm = snow

Not everywhere 

[Weathizard]

Decent agreement of sorts from the big 3. Cold pool draining away by 144 though, would still feel bitter mind you.

[Man With Beard]

2 minutes ago, Long haul to mild said:

Of all the things I've learned on here (and there are a great many) , up there with the most important is to take no notice of the GEM at all. It has more flip flops than Benidorm beach.

If we had believed the GEM at the end of last week, most of the Eastern half of the country would have been iced over and snow bound by this Wednesday!

Nonsense. GEM far closer than other longer range models for critical calls this winter. Was the first model to go with any sort of easterly this time. It's called this cold pool spot on, just not with the depth of uppers.

[frosty ground]

1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

Going to be a significant wind chill developing later this week too

The GFS 6z had quite a strong wind  chill also any showers will get well inland.