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Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

Today's set of 12z runs will be of particular interest to me since we are now going out to the 14th of February, halfway through the last month proper of Winter, no leap year this year.

 It would be nice to see a continuation of these more positive charts and a firming up of maybe a trend of a Scandi high, or even a split in the PV, something along the lines of this chart which is from Autumn 2015 would be really nice for a bit of late Winter fun. I'm not saying this is going to happen, just something to look out for out around the 2nd week of February should the SSW play ball and favour our snow starved Isles. :)

gfsnh-0-120-5.png

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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

Some trough disruption at day 7 on the GFS 12z,

GFSOPEU12_144_1.png

 

it seems to me we are now tentatively trying to pick out the next phase of the pattern from the ops, this mornings ECM and the GFS 06z both hinting at a pressure rise to the north east as the jet digs south east in the mid range.

00z ECM

ECMOPEU00_144_1.png

ECMOPEU00_168_1.png

 

Though UKMO quite progressive on the 12z

UKMOPEU12_144_1.png

 

Certainly some interest to be watched, but very early stages. Some favourable background signals though. Lets hope the ECM 12z continues its theme from the 00z.

Edited by chris55
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Posted
  • Location: Norway
  • Location: Norway
4 minutes ago, chris55 said:

Some trough disruption at day 7 on the GFS 12z,

GFSOPEU12_144_1.png

 

it seems to me we are now tentatively trying to pick out the next phase of the pattern from the ops, this mornings ECM and the GFS 06z both hinting at a pressure rise to the north east as the jet digs south east in the mid range.

00z ECM

ECMOPEU00_144_1.png

ECMOPEU00_168_1.png

 

Though UKMO quite progressive on the 12z

UKMOPEU12_144_1.png

 

Certainly some interest to be watched, but very early stages. Some favourable background signals though. Lets hope the ECM 12z continues its theme from the 00z.

true the JS should be given more south.....

76.png

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Posted
  • Location: Newton Aycliffe, County Durham... 90m asl
  • Weather Preferences: snow and thunderstorms :)
  • Location: Newton Aycliffe, County Durham... 90m asl

So some small but deep lows developing to the south of the main trough in the atlantic as we head into next weekend running across the uk which could bring some very unpleasant weather with warnings likely to be issued, wind a key feature of the weather with everything but the kitchen sink mixed in dependent on location.

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

Its trying to get there, but all the deep cold back down towards Greece again on this run.

gfsnh-0-234.png

gfsnh-1-234.png

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
1 minute ago, snowray said:

Its trying to get there, but all the deep cold back down towards Greece again on this run.

gfsnh-0-234.png

gfsnh-1-234.png

Eyes on the prize snowray - that isn't the deep cold most are looking at with the hemispheric pattern being painted longer term! 

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Posted
  • Location: Pembrokeshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Pembrokeshire
1 minute ago, snowray said:

Its trying to get there, but all the deep cold back down towards Greece again on this run.

gfsnh-0-234.png

gfsnh-1-234.png

I think your clutching at straws there tbh - way off the mark - we need to see what mid/late feb brings 

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Eyes on the prize snowray - that isn't the deep cold most are looking at with the hemispheric pattern being painted longer term! 

Problem of course is no undercut this time.

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Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl

Good trends again from the 12z.. The GEM also looks good.

gemnh-0-240.png

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

Yes its the trend that matters at this stage of course, and GEM coming on board is good news.

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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
6 minutes ago, D.V.R said:

Good trends again from the 12z.. The GEM also looks good.

gemnh-0-240.png

Now that's more like it!

We start to get the elusive undercut at 168!

gem-0-168.png?12

But as ever these are just the op runs "toying" with the new signal. 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
22 minutes ago, snowray said:

Problem of course is no undercut this time.

It's not bad considering what was being chucked out only 24/36 hours ago

be interesting to see how many ens runs begin to smell this pattern. If it's only a few, then likely the op is just coming off that shelf and will revert to less blocky tomorrow 

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Posted
  • Location: Tamworth, Staffordshire (83m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Heat, Thunderstorms, Snow
  • Location: Tamworth, Staffordshire (83m ASL)

Noticeably more interesting Northern Hemisphere charts appearing.

This is what we have been lacking recently.

We have been hoping for a cold spell relying solely on the jet playing ball rather than having the building blocks in place that would ensure a less risky route to cold, longer too.

P8 = LOADED

gens-8-1-276.png

Edited by Paceyboy
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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

Well I guess all eyes on the ECM then....More eye candy on its way.....I hope!:D

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

Some very 'fiddly' undercut processes offered by GEM and GFS this evening, but remember, these are models that are known to struggle with such developments. To be fair, they all tend to have a bit of a 'mare these days.

As usual we're left wondering of modelling shortfalls are weighted more towards not disrupting troughs and sliding secondary lows readily enough, or getting a bit carried away with the emerging blocking signal.

Historically, when wave-2 upwelling is on the scene, it has been one of the few times when the more extreme model output in terms of a meandering jet stream etc. tend to be the form horse. Thing is, it's been quite some time (years?) since this was last the case, and the old rules of thumb have seemed less applicable these past few winters, for whatever reason.

Even so, I'm feeling hopeful for an 'all routes lead to cold' scenario to develop - but with the magnitude of that cold anyone's guess at this time.

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
7 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

im going to  stick my neck out and say we are in for a big freeze mid February on wards or later part of Feb with heavy snow showers blowing in from east  high pressure over Scandinavia low pressure pushed south  just my take on things wants going on in the  stratosphere SW . Folks may shoot me down but we have all been wrong  at some point..:D

IMG_0292.PNG

You maybe right and as amateurs we can all "stick our neck out" as we are not accountable. Interesting output and interesting trends. Let's hope we get something, as it will be 10 months until us coldies are back in the game. 

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

We're seeing a a rather quick downwelling? To the troposphere on GEM most evidently. This thread would be ablaze with activity if it was earlier in the winter, it seems to me the atmosphere is going to be the most inclined towards cold not seen since early 2013.

Eye catching synoptic in GFS 12z FI northern blocking galore reminiscent to early winter - back in December when EC monthly and glosea were modelling extensive northern blocking, it got the droves out.....round 2? :wink::p 

IMG_1745.PNGIMG_1746.PNG

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