Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..


Paul

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

    Around 2/3rds of GFS ensembles show a strong Atlantic block around day 12 - most of the others show some other form of blocking.

    If that isn't an FI cold signal I don't know what is.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
    • Replies 3.8k
    • Created
    • Last Reply
    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    1 minute ago, Mucka said:

    Around 2/3rds of GFS ensembles show a strong Atlantic block around day 12 - most of the others show some other form of blocking.

    If that isn't an FI cold signal I don't know what is.

    I posted the mean on the page behind a few mins back Mucka. It's very good indeed...as I expected it may well be.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
    3 minutes ago, Mucka said:

    Around 2/3rds of GFS ensembles show a strong Atlantic block around day 12 - most of the others show some other form of blocking.

    If that isn't an FI cold signal I don't know what is.

    The 12z op was there later in the run so some signal there.

    gfsnh-0-384.png?12

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
    1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

    I posted the mean on the page behind a few mins back Mucka. It's very good indeed...as I expected it may well be.

    It would be a surprise if Feb didn't come in quite well below average despite the tepid first week.

    graphe6_1000_265_86___.gif

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Home: Nr Malton, Howardian Hills 53m asl Work: North York Moors
  • Weather Preferences: Snow/Thunderstorms
  • Location: Home: Nr Malton, Howardian Hills 53m asl Work: North York Moors
    2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

    I posted the mean on the page behind a few mins back Mucka. It's very good indeed...as I expected it may well be.

    The ECM mean at day 10 hints clearly some members show possible blocking to our N and NW , so maybe we will see upgrades to a second shot of cold later in the month.

    Certainly would tie in with MJO moving into Phase 8.

    EDH1-240.GIF?05-0

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    5 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

    Got the GEFS means at 10hpa at 312

    gensnh-21-7-312.png

    Cheers, I would like to see the heights, the temp charts are fine when you are looking at an initial over the top SSW as you already know the position of the vortex to start so you can guess by the warming where it / they have ended up, its different though when you've already had a displacement and then waiting for trop up split as there is only shallow temp differences.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
    5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    Cheers, I would like to see the heights, the temp charts are fine when you are looking at an initial over the top SSW as you already know the position of the vortex to start so you can guess by the warming where it / they have ended up, its different though when you've already had a displacement and then waiting for trop up split as there is only shallow temp differences.

    Ok

    just looked for srat hieght charts in google and came up with this,go to NH(northern hemisphere),click JFM>N and you should get this:D

    time_pres_TEMP_MEAN_JFM_NH_2017.png

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni

    Very cold run for the next 2 months from the CFS 9month!

    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=1254&mode=0&carte=0&run=0

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    Latest 12z jma is good at 264:D

    J264-21.GIF?05-12J264-7.GIF?05-12

    18z just out,the cold pool is expanding at 84 hrs compared to the 12z

    J84-7.GIF?06-18J96-7.GIF?05-12

    right,i am exhausted after tonights drama but the models are looking a bit better today regarding a colder outlook that looks nailed on now,we just need some disturbances in our vicinity to enhance some more heavier ppn of which should be snow within the next severn days and maybe beyond,remember that models will not pick out these little disturbancies until a lot closer to the time.

     

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.

    00z time. Chilly weekend coming up. 

    gfs-1-126.png

    gfs-9-126.png

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

    GFS 00z continuing trend from last nights ensembles with sharpening up the Atlantic trough, interesting.

    gfsnh-0-144.png

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

    Could see the Scandi high reinforced here...Azores high is merging at a more N'ly latitude and you can see a recurve of heights up towards Iceland and beyond

    gfsnh-0-138.png

    Mucka..snap! Saying the same thing in different ways...

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

    Lovely little cold pool slap bang over the UK at T144 on the UKMO 0z output;

    UN144-21.thumb.gif.7621f1cfd82a7de9cb158cf19edb37ac.gif

    That might pep up some snow potential for a lucky few.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

    UKMO 144 no sign of a breakdown either and that blue blob over the SE may raise some discussion.

    UN144-21.GIF

    EDIT

    Beat me to it AWD

     

    GFS 192 huge block another cld pool heading West and where did the Atlantic go?

    gfsnh-0-192.png

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    9 minutes ago, Mucka said:

    UKMO 144 no sign of a breakdown either and that blue blob over the SE may raise some discussion.

    UN144-21.GIF

    EDIT

    Beat me to it AWD

     

    GFS 192 huge block another cld pool heading West and where did the Atlantic go?

    gfsnh-0-192.png

    Vortex wanting to shift down to the Siberian side as we enter FI beyond 200 hrs ish. Will we see the trend of the GEFS of recent manifest down the line? That is N Atlantic/Greenland heights.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
    7 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

    Vortex wanting to shift down to the Siberian side as we enter FI beyond 200 hrs ish. Will we see the trend of the GEFS of recent manifest down the line? That is N Atlantic/Greenland heights.

    It is definitely something to look for in the output but the trend is certainly for blocking to be maintained in one form or another.

    GFS day 10 :cold:

    gfs-1-240.png

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.

    Monster cold pool by UK standards. 10 days out I know but lovely charts for cold fans. Really hangs around too. Nothing marginal there.

     

    gfs-1-240 (1).png

    gfs-1-264 (1).png

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
    10 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

    Monster cold pool by UK standards. 10 days out I know but lovely charts for cold fans. Really hangs around too. Nothing marginal there.

     

    gfs-1-240 (1).png

    gfs-1-264 (1).png

    Definitely not marginal :D

    gfs-2-288.png

     

    GFS has us in an Easterly flow from 42h out to the last chart at 384 - phenomenal after the winter we have had and no sign of blocking relenting.

    gfsnh-0-384.png

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.

    UKMO also on a theme of a wintry weekend. The chilly little feature over England will make the excellent experts of Exeter pay attention. But one for a watching brief this far out. 

    UW144-21 (4).gif

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.

    850s in gif form. Nowt for coldies to complain about.

    tempresult_dre5.gif

    tempresult_yzg8.gif

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

    Massive upgrade on the 00z in pretty much all of the short, medium and long terms. Relentless easterlies all the way through. 

    We manage to advect that more substantial Russian cold pool all the way to our shores, and then FI ends on a 4000 mile long easterly fetch right from the heart of Siberia! Retrogression of the scandi high is also being shown in this latest run too. Remarkable stuff!! 

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Halewood, Merseyside, (29M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Halewood, Merseyside, (29M ASL)

     For anyone interested, here's a  link to live tabular data from northern Europe sorted from East-West. might be interesting to monitor the extent of surface cold along with @Bring Back1962-63's daily temp/pressure watches. 

    http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/maps/current?LANG=en&UP=0&R=310&TYP=wetter&ART=tabelle&LANG=en&DATE=1486360800&KEY=euro&LAND=euro&CONT=euro&SORT=1&SI=mph&CEL=C&UD=0

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

    GFS has definitely sniffed out the sharpening of the trough giving more amplified Atlantic pattern upstream.

    That makes runs like P12 below become possible in hi res output.

    gensnh-12-1-144.pnggensnh-12-1-180.pnggensnh-12-0-174.png

    That is a huge contrast to yesterday's ECM

     

    ECH1-144.GIF?05-0

    but I expect all change from it this morning.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    8 minutes ago, Mucka said:

    GFS has definitely sniffed out the sharpening of the trough giving more amplified Atlantic pattern upstream.

    That makes runs like P12 below become possible in hi res output.

    gensnh-12-1-144.pnggensnh-12-1-180.pnggensnh-12-0-174.png

    That is a huge contrast to yesterday's ECM

     

    ECH1-144.GIF?05-0

    but I expect all change from it this morning.

    Striking retrogressive anomaly by 264 hrs within the 0z GEFS suite

    gensnh-21-5-264.png

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Otley(Leeds)
  • Location: Otley(Leeds)
    27 minutes ago, Mucka said:

    GFS has definitely sniffed out the sharpening of the trough giving more amplified Atlantic pattern upstream.

    That makes runs like P12 below become possible in hi res output.

    gensnh-12-1-144.pnggensnh-12-1-180.pnggensnh-12-0-174.png

    That is a huge contrast to yesterday's ECM

     

    ECH1-144.GIF?05-0

    but I expect all change from it this morning.

     

    Its shaping up very nicely now looking at the overnight GFS and UKMO, Looks like an easterly wind of sorts setting in on wednesday/thursday looks nailed on now. I honestly have just completly dismissed the ECM, without even seeing its esembles. It just looks way way off the mark. And not because it shows what I don't want to see lol

    Link to post
    Share on other sites

    Archived

    This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

    Guest
    This topic is now closed to further replies.
    ×
    ×
    • Create New...