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Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

17021400_0512_03.gif 17021400_0512_02.gif

Largest (an impressive 45%) and second-largest (a still very respectable 35%) clusters from GEFS for day 9.

17021400_0512_01.gif

Closest to ECM is this 15% cluster but even here there is room for interaction between the mid-Atlantic and NW-African (!) troughs which would help to build the block back to higher latitudes.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Wellingborough
  • Weather Preferences: snow
  • Location: Wellingborough

UW144-21.GIF?05-18

On the subject of the UKMO... how many times has the UKMO actually led us up the garden path? Not many that I can recall. Fantastic chart at 144 +

Odd that the ECM is not onboard as the ECM has given many a tease. Perhaps the ECM is playing it safe this time? :rofl:

Encouraging that the UKMO is remaining consistent, with the GFS also on board the search for cold is very much still alive and just over the horizon.

 

Edited by Zakos
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Posted
  • Location: Morden, Surrey.
  • Location: Morden, Surrey.

I feel today has had many ups and downs but nothing resolved except we will be entering a colder phase from the east be it NE/SE..

The orientation of where the high situs is ever so important between a cold spell or cold and snowy spell adding to that disturbances which won't show at this range I feel that you're aswell to flip a coin or call the winter horoscopes hotline with discount SNOWUK2017 as a money off discount code.

Another few days beckons before we have a stronghold of where we are heading..

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Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex
13 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

The question we have to ask ourselves is what is the ecm seeing that the other models aren't? What unsettles me is that the ecm is still the best verifying model out there. Surely one of the reasons for this is it's ability to pick up on certain things quicker than the other models. Maybe that's what has happened today and the other models are playing catch up. I guess we will know one way or the other when the 00z runs roll out in the morning.

The verification at Day 8 is only around two-thirds and ECM is only around 5-10% better than GFS/UMKO, so I don't think one ECM Op run, when viewing very much FI charts. should cause too much angst at this stage.

I wouldn't be surprised if the 12z ECM run was close to being an outlier when we see the ENS later on - that's probably blown it now!

:)

Edited by Purga
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Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset

Just running through the main Ops again. There isn't a great world of difference up to D5, it's thereafter the ECM goes off on one.

I get the notion of sending warm uppers off from the AH but I can't for the life of my see how the ECM goes on to build a stand-alone mid-lat high bang on top of us, instead of bolstering the main block.

Easy to say when we are all looking for cold and snow but it does just look very wrong to me.

 

And to add to this. As per Singularity's post above. No GEFS member shows this. Even P:20 which yes at face value at D8 also shows a UK HP, but by D10 it is evident it is only transient and clearly not heading the same confused direction that the ECM Op is.

Edited by s4lancia
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Posted
  • Location: Dipton, Nr Consett, Co.Durham, 250m, 777ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but boringly hot
  • Location: Dipton, Nr Consett, Co.Durham, 250m, 777ft asl
21 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

UKMO says no to ECM with snow for many...

IMG_2358.thumb.PNG.4b21d49126a1907ee5beb194b39e4516.PNG

Yay,  bringing back Ski Sunday for some.  :cold-emoji:As has been said let's just chill and enjoy the roller coaster for what it is. If it's not for you,  let's not spoil it for the rest. 

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
29 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

If you think that this would suggest springlike weather, think again. Very cold at the surface with some very low minima. 

Yes sunny days with some frost at night, but then 48 hours later this.

Almost certainly out on its own this run, but if it was to verify it would start to feel very pleasant in the sunshine in the south of the country as we head towards late February, and probably a bit further north as well.

15,16,17c possible.

ECM0-240.GIF

Edited by snowray
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Posted
  • Location: 4 miles north of Durham City
  • Location: 4 miles north of Durham City
32 minutes ago, Stephen W said:

But surely there are other factors in addition to MJO which are impacting and perhaps overriding the MJO signal.  There must be as far as ECMWF is concerned. 

Of course, there are about 10 additional teleconnection patterns officially recognised by NOAA; albeit those are considered subsets of wider teleconnections within both the Atlantic and Pacific, but also including the Asian landmass, the Arctic and so on.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20

Early news from the ECM EPS.

Not as hideous as the operation but could be better - a combination of the Azores High and lots of energy in the northern arm placing significant pressure on the Scandinavian block (transforms into a Belarus block by day 8).

 

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Posted
  • Location: Hernia Bay
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy Snow
  • Location: Hernia Bay
22 minutes ago, Purga said:

The verification at Day 8 is only around two-thirds and ECM is only around 5-10% better than GFS/UMKO, so I don't think one ECM Op run, when viewing very much FI charts. should cause too much angst at this stage.

I wouldn't be surprised if the 12z ECM run was close to being an outlier when we see the ENS later on - that's probably blown it now!

:)

Yes it's at odds with the other models tonight. Strange what can be attributed to this? Also the country file forecast mentions easterly with snow flurries so perhaps ECM is on its own ??

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
8 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Early news from the ECM EPS.

Not as hideous as the operation but could be better - a combination of the Azores High and lots of energy in the northern arm placing significant pressure on the Scandinavian block (transforms into a Belarus block by day 8).

 

Where do you get these so early? A handful of ECM Op like runs would severely distort the mean, so may well be some decent clusters still

Edited by Ali1977
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Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Where do you get these so early?

Behind a paywall I'm afraid (weatherbell.com).

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

ECM op one of the warmest out of the 51 members from day 6 - in de Bilt anyway 

IMG_4207.PNG

Edited by Ali1977
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Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
9 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Where do you get these so early? A handful of ECM Op like runs would severely distort the mean, so may well be some decent clusters still

To my very amateur eyes hints of retrogression on the EPS as heights build over Iceland at day 11 (with continued strong heights over Europe though).

Edited by mulzy
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Posted
  • Location: Newton Aycliffe, County Durham... 90m asl
  • Weather Preferences: snow and thunderstorms :)
  • Location: Newton Aycliffe, County Durham... 90m asl

Ecm op by far a mild outlier...Screenshot_20170205-203517.thumb.png.73af3ea429c2b82cc6552a4b12a8bf8a.png12z

Screenshot_20170205-203224.thumb.png.ad68cb3ddc5e322095a3571bd93a4445.png0z

 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

ECM will obviously be on the mild side of the ensembles post day 7.

Other output has pretty much gone as expected showing cold but mainly dry weather with blocking only slowly declining before reasserting itself.

I don't see any quick or decisive breakdown still.

Slack continental flows don't really float my boat as far as winter weather goes, they tend to be cold,dull and damp but there is till a possibility there will be some snow around, either from the NE as the cold pool comes South and stalls next weekend or from the W if the Atlantic makes any inroads first thing next week (assuming we managed to keep the cold pool)

Thereafter it may be less cold and more unsettled for a short while (or blocking may persist) before blocking likely fully reestablishes itself around mid month - at least that is how I see things so nothing changed for me over last few days.

 

Edit.

I see ECM is very much on the mild side but we didn't need to be Einstein to predict that.

Edited by Mucka
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

London and Aberdeen ECM ens show the Op is clearly on the warm side

Aberdeen                                                    London

graphe_ens3_php.thumb.png.0521fb9b444dc50f88f54b397ad81756.png65464.thumb.png.cb9c45831c2a3ae4e08f69e6cd13cd02.png

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
3 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

London and Aberdeen ECM ens show the Op is clearly on the warm side

Aberdeen                                                    London

graphe_ens3_php.thumb.png.0521fb9b444dc50f88f54b397ad81756.png65464.thumb.png.cb9c45831c2a3ae4e08f69e6cd13cd02.png

Clearly an outlier, however the upward trend of the ENS is clear to see, the same trend is in the GEFS also.

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire

The ecm mean charts for days 8 to 10 are very encouraging. The PV sent packing to north east Asia. We may get our cherished greenie high yet.

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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

London and Aberdeen ECM ens show the Op is clearly on the warm side

Aberdeen                                                    London

graphe_ens3_php.thumb.png.0521fb9b444dc50f88f54b397ad81756.png65464.thumb.png.cb9c45831c2a3ae4e08f69e6cd13cd02.png

An example of a true outlier. The word tends to be incorrectly used here to describe op runs merely on the colder or milder side of a suite.

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