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Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..


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Knee-jerk, a joke!?...if that is what you believe then simply don't follow. I was simply highlighting what the EC ENS are showing and to be honest certain people need to read before commentating, perh

Yes, I recognise these sage pieces of sentiment so well. The signals are always wrong, and the professionals (and others) who try to present and explain them, when an operational appears to take away

This is an unusual set up for the UK, hence the model variations. The bigger picture according to seriously knowledgeable people like @Tamara tends to suggest that the hemispheric factors that actuall

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1 minute ago, January Snowstorm said:

Well I won't be writing off the ecm and it's perfectly plausible...It has thrashed the other models all winter. If you had one bet to save your life it would be a blend of the big 3 aka very cold but dry

No it hasn't thrashed them at all !

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Why is there negativity you only have to read the met office further outlook and read what the experts like Ian f have put on twitter today, A cold spell is coming with some snow flurries better than mild and a  Fairly long cold block. 

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2 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

Well I won't be writing off the ecm and it's perfectly plausible...It has thrashed the other models all winter. If you had one bet to save your life it would be a blend of the big 3 aka very cold but dry

Whilst it has the best verification stats its been poor the last few weeks, whilst the UKMO has been very consistent I won't be pulling the shotgun until the UKMO follows the ECM

UW144-21.GIF?05-18

ECM1-144.GIF?05-0

Plus lets see where the ENS are at 144h its going to be interesting 

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17 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

Well I won't be writing off the ecm and it's perfectly plausible...It has thrashed the other models all winter. If you had one bet to save your life it would be a blend of the big 3 aka very cold but dry

Maybe you missed yesterday post- in this evolution its been awful proved by all 3 models for 5 days...

UKMO leading the way - however yes we cant write it totally off..

Edited by Steve Murr
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1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

Maybe you missed yesterday post- in this evolution its been awful proved by all 3 models for 5 days...

Yes very true whatever it shows at 5 days does not happen, so all good on ecm front. Unless it shows what other models do I suppose.

 

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Has anyone posted the UKMO day 7 chart yet - it's nice at 144 but you can't really see if it goes pear shaped in the next key day!!

If the ECM lies in the middle of the EPS I'd be concerned but not so just yet. However it is plausible, and est not write it off. The good thing now is that the METO wording sounds nothing like the ECM next weekend.

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ECM is so out of line with the background signals, the Met Office indications toward the weekend... everything.

UKMO is quite similar with the broader pattern which is why I have my concerns about the fast cut-off and jet being able to take a straight route over the top of the block - but surely the upstream forcing should prevent the jet establishing a continuous strong section that rapidly sinks the block such as ECM shows. Right?

There's something fishy going on but is it with the model or what we're actually headed for?

When it comes down to it we have vastly different flow and temperature configurations as early as day 4 so we really are in a messed up situation for the time being.

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If you focus in where the 955mb low is then you can see a fall of 75mb in 48 hrs. That's pretty remarkable. It is possible, but likely given the forcing mechanism in play? Not really imho. 

IMG_0747.PNG

IMG_0748.PNG

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1 minute ago, snowray said:

Ohhhh dear, this is really awful from ECM. Springtime arrives early.....again.

ECM1-192.GIF

ECM0-192.GIF

Its going to be very clear where this sits in its ensembles later so should tell us whether its a new trend or a complete outliner|! 

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10 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

& thats where we leave the ECM tonight - Just the same as the last 5 days to much forward energy @ day 6....

 

Hi Steve,

Always enjoy reading your analysis. Surely though ECMWF is picking up on something so can't be completely discounted? I thought ECMWF was better for modelling of scandi heights? It has more energy in the northern arm of the jet which results in the high sinking.  It's out of synch with other models yes but until they all come on board, it must be taken seriously? We've all been here before so we surely do need to see the ECMWF align before we get too excited at 144 and beyond..?

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For those wondering how some areas managed to get freezing rain in January 1987, it's because when the snow showers off the North Sea were replaced by more continuous precipitation, a pool of milder air rose above the exceptionally cold air near the surface.  With 850hPa temperatures of around -2C, there was probably a shallow zone of >0C temperatures somewhere around the 850hPa level (plus or minus about 50hPa) which caused rain, and then when this fell into surface air temperatures of about -5C, freezing rain was the result.

CFSR_1_1987011412_2.png

I think the main issue during this coming week will be a relative lack of cold pooling over the continent and modification from the North Sea.  I envisage a lot of stratocumulus and scattered light flurries of sleet or snow (perhaps even rain near the east coast), mainly in eastern areas from the Wash northwards, unless we can get a pronounced trough in the easterly flow as per UKMO T+144.  The forecast Skew-T for East Lothian, just after the easterly is forecast to come in, indicates shallow convection, reaching a dry lid at about 800hPa:

sound-EastLothian-84.png

For widespread/significant snow showers I'd be looking for convection getting up to around 700hPa as happened on 11 March 2013.

 

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