Jump to content
Holidays
Local
Radar
Windy?
Paul

Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..

Recommended Posts

I've heard it says the GEM models 850hpa tempa as too high. It seems to me it also models 2m temps too low. Or am I imagining things? Here GEM vs GFS for tomorrow morning. 

gem-9-18.png

gfs-9-18.png

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
54 minutes ago, Alexis said:

This is a good point. I don't remember a high of -2C in South East (which we've seen in Southend) being forecast for today at the beginning of the week!

today was picked out as being very cold at the beginning of the week. I remember singularity posting after an ecm op (perhaps sunday evening) that Thursday looked bitter

the forecast has followed suit although you wouldn't find them forecasting sub zero several days away !

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Can the surface ridge to the north on the ECM at 72/96 gain some traction and deflect the Atlantic south? Probably not, most likely not, but this "tussle" between the the Atlantic vs the Euro block is certainly a continuing saga. By 144 we still don't have a convincing zonal flow.

72

ECMOPEU12_72_1.png

96

ECMOPEU12_96_1.png

144

ECMOPEU12_144_1.png

At this point it simply leaves the UK in a pretty dull scenario with the Atlantic lows stalling and bringing us a wet and windy southerly. But if we were to see some kind of an underut then the pattern would evolve quickly into something more favourable for colder conditions potentially following on. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, chris55 said:

Can the surface ridge to the north on the ECM at 72/96 gain some traction and deflect the Atlantic south? Probably not, most likely not, but this "tussle" between the the Atlantic vs the Euro block is certainly a continuing saga. By 144 we still don't have a convincing zonal flow.

72

ECMOPEU12_72_1.png

96

ECMOPEU12_96_1.png

144

ECMOPEU12_144_1.png

At this point it simply leaves the UK in a pretty dull scenario with the Atlantic lows stalling and bringing us a wet and windy southerly. But if we were to see some kind of an underut then the pattern would evolve quickly into something more favourable for colder conditions potentially following on. 

As previously mentioned this is loco-zonal and not where we want to be.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Seasonality said:

I've heard it says the GEM models 850hpa tempa as too high. It seems to me it also models 2m temps too low. Or am I imagining things? Here GEM vs GFS for tomorrow morning. 

gem-9-18.png

gfs-9-18.png

for the netherlands gem seems to be better, the fine mesh hirlam model predicts temperatures between -8 and -2

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
24 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

you can put lipstick on a pig but its still a pig. no point dressing up the models at the moment. the ops continue to trend towards their extended ens modelling and that doesn't deliver winter to nw Europe.

 

the weather modeled seems to fit the current and predicted mjo-phases(3 and 4, the suckiest phases ), how good are these models in predicting mjo phase and amplitude?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
46 minutes ago, chris55 said:

Can the surface ridge to the north on the ECM at 72/96 gain some traction and deflect the Atlantic south? Probably not, most likely not, but this "tussle" between the the Atlantic vs the Euro block is certainly a continuing saga. By 144 we still don't have a convincing zonal flow.

72

ECMOPEU12_72_1.png

96

ECMOPEU12_96_1.png

144

ECMOPEU12_144_1.png

At this point it simply leaves the UK in a pretty dull scenario with the Atlantic lows stalling and bringing us a wet and windy southerly. But if we were to see some kind of an underut then the pattern would evolve quickly into something more favourable for colder conditions potentially following on. 

Indeed. The models haven't exactly covered themselves in glory this winter past the day 5 timeframe. I won't be worrying about any charts past day 5 as these always change to some degree and sometimes quite markedly.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
44 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

you can put lipstick on a pig but its still a pig. no point dressing up the models at the moment. the ops continue to trend towards their extended ens modelling and that doesn't deliver winter to nw Europe.

 

Yes that's about the sum of it Nick.

A return to our normal westerly Atlantic driven muck. Probably best for cold/snow lovers to take this chance to have a week or so away from the models in the hope that come mid Feb something more appetizing may be on offer. That's certainly what I intend to do.

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Let's close the thread then.... 2nd post like this today

Not everyone is interested in looking out for wintry cold patterns, also if that's what's been showing then there's no covering that up, Knocker might come out the woodshed at least. 

Is the JMA a credible model with the strat? Probably not.. It has a very beefy warming at 10hpha off the scale at T48 looks pretty major GFS isn't so bold, nice colours it must be said. :p 

Winter is not done with us yet....

image.gifimage.gif

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, mcweather said:

Yes that's about the sum of it Nick.

A return to our normal westerly Atlantic driven muck. Probably best for cold/snow lovers to take this chance to have a week or so away from the models in the hope that come mid Feb something more appetizing may be on offer. That's certainly what I intend to do.

Yeah I agree, still find it pretty amazing that we have had nearly two months of winter without much zonality at all and the weather has been pretty stagnant right through, yet we have somehow got to this point without a real cold spell...The kind we are looking for anyway. As Nick (bluearmy) says..You can't polish a tu rd and that's the cross agreement with the models, 

Hey ho we can handle it, we're all cross-eyed from the chances shown this winter anyhow!

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Less said about the ECM the better! Deep 940mb low, wind and gales. I guess it's all eyes on the potential SSW for some divine intervention!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UKMO extended = wet and windy

ukm2.2017020212.168.lant.troplant.prp.fcst.gentracker.png

Personally i dont like the rendering of these 168 UKMO charts, they do not show the bigger picture! For all we know a giant Scandi high could be to our north east or a incoming Kettly high and we would be none the wiser.

 

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ecm 12z ensembles are interesting in the sense that there are many more cold runs at days 4 to 6 than this morning's suite. Mmm!

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Ecm 12z ensembles are interesting in the sense that there are many more cold runs at days 4 to 6 than this morning's suite. Mmm!

And still differences between the models in the mid range juncture. Yes, looking likely for an atlantic spell for a little while for the UK but after that, who knows. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Whilst the models are in full agreement that the atlantic will finally nudge out the influence of high pressure, I can't say they are doing it in convincing style, hints we will maintain a more amplified flow with fronts struggling to make speedy assaults across the country, it looks a feeding ground for secondary low formation rotating around the parent low anchored out to our west, no long drawn southwesterly fetch, in northern parts some colder air at times as well - jetstream more southerly positioned, fronts splintering off from the low anchoring there way northwards across the country and back in on themselves. A messy picture, not your clean cut marked warm/cold sectors pattern.

 

 

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

8 out of the last 11 posts have been removed as they're not model discussion.....quality posting, well done :80:

Edited by ajpoolshark
  • Like 6

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
30 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Whilst the models are in full agreement that the Atlantic will finally nudge out the influence of high pressure, I can't say they are doing it in convincing style, hints we will maintain a more amplified flow with fronts struggling to make speedy assaults across the country, it looks a feeding ground for secondary low formation rotating around the parent low anchored out to our west, no long drawn southwesterly fetch, in northern parts some colder air at times as well - jetstream more southerly positioned, fronts splintering off from the low anchoring there way northwards across the country and back in on themselves. A messy picture, not your clean cut marked warm/cold sectors pattern.

 

 

Quite agree. Little doubt we are heading into a more Atlantic sourced weather, just not convinced the ECM of the other day wasn't actually on to something, just much too early. It all looks a little half hearted, it won't take too much more of a southerly track/angle of the jetstream to swing things fairly quickly back in our favour.

Watch this space, I get the feeling we may not have seen the end of that meandering weak, yet increasingly influential, wedge of heights over GL that the ECM was showing the other day.

 

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There's no ignoring the deep trough signal extending from the mid-Atlantic across to the UK, but at the same time, the jet will be tracking south of usual and with that configuration there will always be a chance that one of the potential intense lows doesn't find a sweet spot and remains as a shallow secondary low that could make a run south of the UK with a bit of luck.

Okay, a lot of luck :D

From the latest guidance it'll take until about a week into February for the MJO to start providing some useful ammunition with which to reconfigure the pattern to something more pleasing to those not happy with stormy weather and highly variable temperatures (I'm actually quite alright with a bit of that down this way, as long as it doesn't go on for too long). At that time it'll either be battling a vortex returning to the pole, an unhelpfully displaced vortex or, in the by far most desirable scenario, a vortex that has been knocked right of its feet and displaced bodily into western Eurasia as a result of a secondary wave of warming that starts around day 10 and which ECM seems particularly keen on - much more so than GFS

Chances are the MJO gets there ahead of any vortex knock-out so there could be a(nother) difficult period of model watching in early Feb as the models struggle to resolve a more finely balanced situation. None of this is at all certain though, what with model MJO projections having proved unusually dodgy at times so far this season. Yet I continue to focus on it as a key driver because it's integral to adjusting the global atmospheric angular momentum budget in favourable ways for wintry weather in our part of the hemisphere, as Tamara has kindly been reminding us from time to time. Other key components include mountain torque events for example, but I'm less well practiced at spotting these in advance.

ALL_emean_phase_full.gif

I can be said though that this is the best picture painted by ECMF and UKME (based on extrapolation) this season so far. GEFS is a bit quick to leave the W Pacific behind to be what we really want, despite how good phase 7-8 transitions can be in Feb. CANM paints an undesirable version of events that, as much as I want to, I can't go ahead and discount due to the usual slew of caveats. 

Right, that's the net of hope cast out yet again in  'the winter of the dangling carrot' or whatever you might wish to call it. Jan has essentially been a very near miss - those epic model runs at the turn of the year showed us what ended up romping across pretty much the whole of Southern Europe and has only now decided to come roaring at us, from the southeast, as the brunt of it makes its (long-awaited by S. European residents) departure. We got to experience a single day with some of the conditions that we could well have had for a fortnight or longer. A small mercy, I say! :vava::rolleyes:

Edited by Singularity
  • Like 8

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Not a great deal of changes so far from the 18z in the reliable timeframe, other than to say the initial resistance from the block to the east means fronts making really slow progress across the UK next Tuesday/Weds, parts of England and Wales could get rather wet, though I guess rainfall is in deficit this winter - so every little helps.

gfsgif_tues.gif

It's not until after mid-week next week that we see the big Atlantic storms modelled to roll in towards the NW, as we see a strong jet streak push across the  Atlantic and fragments of the  trop vortex engulfing N Canada and Greenland break off and head across the Atlantic as shortwaves that engage and deepen intense lows.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Does anyone know what the latest EC46 is suggesting please?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Does anyone know what the latest EC46 is suggesting please?

I think most have sacked that one off after it's dismal performance this season lol

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×