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Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..

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2 hours ago, Gibby said:

The ECM is and has not been poor. It constantly verifies greater than GFS and UKMO. Remember a few days ago when it churned out that awful run when it showed High pressure drifting South and cutting off the cold period while all the other models maintained us in the freezer for next week. A couple of days later all models have caught up on the theme albeit in a modified form. ECM has modified its own version of that event but you cannot discount it because it hasn't been showing what you want it too. Wait till after the event then criticize. We've not even got to the cold spell yet so all models could be proved wrong but not until we reach the end of next week. You have to use longer range charts over say Day 5-6 for trends only not for specifics and that day in my mind when ECM pulled out that rogue run was the beginning of a new trend, one which has now spread across all output. From my POV the current trend is for milder conditions early next week but with the possibility of a return to colder conditions later. My reasoning being that is the trend I accomplish by a blend of all models, ensembles etc over this mornings and the last few runs. Heres the latest 10 Day Verification Stats for the 00zs.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

It was by far the least keen of all the models on the upcoming easterly. I know that much. 

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24 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Nonsense.

Some real signs of retrogression on the 06z run

gfs-0-240.png?6

Yes, thanks be to the Lord, wave 2 on its way. 

gfs-0-324.png

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I am not screaming downgrade, because downgrade from what, it hasn't happened yet, I was pointing out that the majority of the model runs today have gone for a shortening of the projected cold spell(snap).

Also the case that yesterday METO were tweeting it will last for February (Majority). Someone needs to get a grip of their social media I think.

I have said before I don't look past 168, and with respects to this time period we have taken a backward step.

Edited by warrenb
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16 minutes ago, chicken soup said:

Rapidly turning into a damp squib this...this country is well and truly cursed....out of all the stellar model runs we got 1 crap ecm run and that's the one that verifies....typical.

Yes I agree with you chicken soup, if you really sit down and think about what you just posted, it would drive you mad, mad, mad I tell you!:fool:

 

Well at least we have our next carrot hanging there, the Greenland high, better than no carrot at all I guess.

Edited by snowray
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06_129_uk2mtmp.png

Surely thats wrong? Se ireland colder than se england ? Wonder if gfs is overstaing temps on sunday.

Edited by northwestsnow
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Its one run, one run!!! off out on my mountain bike for a few hours and hopefully on my return a better 12z suite .

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looking bitterly cold for the 10th , 11th , 12th before a slight warm up early next week.

tablevtq2_mini.png

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18 minutes ago, stodge said:

It really is annoying when people scream "downgrade" because one OP run isn't showing storm force Easterlies and -20 Uppers where they live.

Another cold or very cold OP and quite similar to the 00Z output in FI which inspires confidence.

The retrogression process is slow but it does allow the trough to drop into Scandinavia and offers a N or NE airflow with LPs passing along the Channel and that set up in late February is as good as it gets for those wanting snow - it's a similar set up which has provided lowland snow in late March.

As for the 2m temperatures, oddly enough the 06Z looks colder than the 00Z next week so we may get up to 5c some days (may), there will be some sharp if not severe frosts and no sign of a blowtorch SW'ly.

 

Depends if you're happy with a dry, chilly easterly. It's like settling for a 5/10 when you could have had a 10/10.

Its not one op run, no sustained cold enough for snow is showing... there is a 48/72 hour window when snow flurries are possible but high pressure is too close by for most its a non event in the near term and we are left chasing clean evolutions to cold in FI again.

To me it's not reactionary to say this, the ensembles and models are in agreement on a 'warm' up in the medium term, although it will be cold at the surface.

 

 

Edited by Weathizard
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A quick look at the ensembles  and in the near term  around half on them have quite a bit of snow covering large parts of England  i still think most will see a shower or two.  For whats its worth  and probably not a great deal  but here is the mean.

gens-21-2-108.png

Edited by weirpig
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the reason for my fence sitting was based on the model output not being convincing on bringing deep cold across our shores for more than a fleeting visit 

the uptick in uppers now showing cross model was picked by the eps a few days ago. It didn't sit well with the general euphoria but it has grown over time

the agencies that do this stuff for a living seem keen to emphasise that this will not be a short snap so I'm comfortable that the telecons will begin to show through (as they are already on the extended ens) and the next fortnight will be cold. Perhaps a few days of continental flow as a transition is considered to be unlikely to be noticed by the general public as not cold!  Whilst we see raw op temps approaching double fig maxes on the ops, the reality will be either that together with overnight frosts or grey and raw. Either way that's probably considered chilly to cold for forecasting purposes. 

It does seem that this thread will continue to be busy for the next couple weeks at least. 

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Well there's the most recent Euro4 @ +T48...Showers certainly turning wintry from the off on Thursday morning it would seem.

 

Edit: As I have said many times along with other posters on here, lets focus on this cold spell, at least its going to happen now and some if not most will see snowfall light, or heavy at times. As for FI, second waves, third waves, they may never happen. So have some fun now while it lasts.:)

17020906_0706.gif

Edited by snowray
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2 hours ago, TEITS said:

I did warn a few days ago when the ECM Op was a massive outlier compared to its ensembles that we should be wary of ruling it out. I am however referriing to the SE,ly early next week rather than the ECM +192 to +240 charts. Still think a return of cold from the N is more likely than what the ECM is showing.

Just add it looks as though I am wrong about the snow shower distribution for Fri/Sat. Does appear the S extent of shower activity could be around Wash/Lincs/Norfolk. The poor old SE which normally does well appears to currently miss out.

 

well i have to say for this part of lincs the forecast is very poor if its snow you are after, temps of 4c and a north wind equals rain apparently, then temps recovering to 6/7c by monday, so i have a hunch that this cold spell is going to turn into just a damp, cloudy chilly affair for 2/3 days

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Cant post charts   but it seems the Gfs 6z  is on the milder side of the ensembles    above the mean.  plus cant erase these charts either GRR

 

 

 

 

gens-21-2-108.png

gens-21-2-108.png

Edited by weirpig

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Looks like the Op is on the milder side for the evolution after the weekend. Although it might not be above average spell as the op shows, i think the likely route is a weak easterly from then on, which would not likely be cold enough for snow. But, things can and do change :-)

gefs_t2anom_16_eur_1 (8).png

Edited by jvenge
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GEFS calls a prolonged milder "blip" into serious question. Most members cut off the Mediterranean influence by T216 and a majority of member have east or north-easterly influence once again. 8 out of 22 members even have a cold pool back over the UK.

The milder T144-T240 on some of the ops is rather like a summer plume - now how many forecasted plumes actually make it to the UK? 

I may have suggested no snow possible next week, but if I may, I'd like to go back on that please - I rate chances of another cold blast by the end of next week at 30%.

Roll on further to next weekend and lots of northerlies starting to appear...

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The transition period from the SE flow to the potential Northerly is interesting in the ENS, several have this occurring much quicker and cleaner than the GFS Op.  By next Fri many have us back in a colder flow coming through Scandy.

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1 minute ago, Man With Beard said:

GEFS calls a prolonged milder "blip" into serious question. Most members cut off the Mediterranean influence by T216 and a majority of member have east or north-easterly influence once again. 8 out of 22 members even have a cold pool back over the UK.

The milder T144-T240 on some of the ops is rather like a summer plume - now how many forecasted plumes actually make it to the UK? 

I may have suggested no snow possible next week, but if I may, I'd like to go back on that please - I rate chances of another cold blast by the end of next week at 30%.

Roll on further to next weekend and lots of northerlies starting to appear...

Beat me too it, milder blip of longer than 2 days is still in doubt according to the GEFS.  

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