Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..

[captain jack]

8 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Never rely solely on the interpretation of others...It sounds harder than it is to interpret NWP output, once you get the hang of it the first thing you will end up doing is looking at the models and forming your own conclusions. This forum then acts as a subsidiary to cross check the views of others and perhaps supplement your own views with the views of some of the seasoned members on here (and there are a fair few). 

Yes, there have been a fair few trolls over the years but most members on here are well meaning, even if they only profess to possess a rudimentary handle on all things NWP!

Fair points made, I just do not have the time to study all the outputs, hence my reliability on others for information.

[Djdazzle]

4 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

 

Don't trust the EC ensembles. Remember when they were almost unanimously behind the Easterly earlier in the winter? And it didn't happen. I'd rather trust a piece of seaweed to be honest!

[nick sussex]

5 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

 

The ECM mean at T240hrs, given that's covering all 51 members then that's pretty good  so not sure how 42 members can be mild and unsettled. You simply can't have that mean if so many were against some pressure rise near Greenland.

That shows amplification over the ne USA with energy heading se  and pressure rising over Greenland so I'm bemused by that tweet!

 

[mother nature rocks]

30 minutes ago, snowray said:

Well we have the next 5 or 6 days of eye candy for a start of course. 

 

Anyone notice the updated met office Uk Outlook for 12 Feb-21 Feb? States snow showers likely in the east, with a small chance of these becoming heavier. Also, It will feel very cold in the easterly wind. This was updated at 13.28 today and is for next week of course from Sunday 12th Feb, what are they seeing that we ain't for next week? mmm

I think it probably boils down to the fact that they see a whole lot more data than we do, plus the fact they don't over react to a couple of runs here and there. As we know they like to hedge their bets until things look more certain. In this case I do believe they have it spot on.

As previously stated by others, once the block and associated cold becomes entrenched it can be a stubborn piece of work. Ok it may well move around but may well lead to better things down the line.

MNR

[joggs]

12 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

 

I thought on his blog earlier he said he favours a gh mid/longer term?.

He seems to flip with every suite.

Edited February 7, 2017 by joggs

[Duane S.]

11 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Nice, but wasn't this saying the beast a few days ago?

To be fair, an 8-14 day anomaly chart could NEVER depict such a scenario.It is what it is, a forecast of the pressure differences to the norm.

Assuming it ends up being reasonably accurate, and they often are, the actual location, angle, size, strength of the heights will determine what actually occurs.

You could easily draw two 500mb NH profiles on the basis of that chart being accurate, one that would give us cold nirvana and an alternate one that we see us totally missing out in the UK. The anomaly chart would still verify.

[MattTarrant]

5 minutes ago, on the coast said:

Matt and his tweets are becoming a bit of a joke really. He really should stop with his knee jerk reactions.

I wouldn't say that, but as Nick says i don't quite get his tweet. I find some of Matt's tweet as overly simplistic, the undertone of that tweet is completely different to what he was pointing out in the Synoptic blog here on Netweather. He seemed quite confident of Pressure rising over Greenland area so  but I respect it is just a reaction to one set of ENS so maybe we our over thinking?

Edited February 7, 2017 by MattTarrant

[Paul]

3 minutes ago, joggs said:

I thought on his blog earlier he said he favours a gh mid/longer term?.

He seems to flip with every suite.

You seem to be mistaking the difference between making a considered forecast & reporting what a model shows!

[Cheshire Freeze]

RE the tweet...

42 are milder and more unsettled

There's a difference between that and saying 'Mild and unsettled'

Without seeing the individual perts we can't make any assumptions. Matt has access to them, we do not.

[Duane S.]

1 minute ago, Paul said:

You seem to be mistaking the difference between making a considered forecast & reporting what a model shows!

I would agree completely but for the comment at the end ''Too soon yet for a Greenland block IMO'

[snowray]

8 minutes ago, mother nature rocks said:

I think it probably boils down to the fact that they see a whole lot more data than we do, plus the fact they don't over react to a couple of runs here and there. As we know they like to hedge their bets until things look more certain. In this case I do believe they have it spot on.

As previously stated by others, once the block and associated cold becomes entrenched it can be a stubborn piece of work. Ok it may well move around but may well lead to better things down the line.

MNR

Well they seem to have included just about everything in that update including the kitchen sink. 

As for the ECM, I think it is worth just sticking with the operationals for now, it was indeed the 1st to spot the warming trend when everyone else was bullish cold. Same with GFS, it was an outlier for a long time when going for this cold spell remember, and operational run was right in the end of course.

Edited February 7, 2017 by snowray

[nick sussex]

7 minutes ago, on the coast said:

Matt and his tweets are becoming a bit of a joke really. He really should stop with his knee jerk reactions.

Its impossible to have just 9 solutions backing the ECM in terms of pressure rising over Greenland and the other 42 not showing any pressure rise there at all and have that mean.

Perhaps  the others have some messy shortwave situation near the UK but that's not a big issue at this stage however if they show some pressure rise over Greenland that's the important thing.

This is why these types of tweets are beginning to seriously get on my txts because with the restriction in words theres simply not enough to get some detail down and then people in here are misled because they don't give  what the broader picture shows.

Edited February 7, 2017 by nick sussex

[That ECM]

It doesn't matter how many times people say fi is fi people see a T240 chart and take it as gospel. The models don't lead people up a path their minds do. Past t120 is for fun and possibly trends. When they are not consistent or they don't agree in the way forward, we have to be patient. If the meto are low in confidence that's because there is no clear signal, yet people believe someone sat in their 3rd bedroom who's telling you what it will be like a week on Wednesday!! 

[Dancerwithwings]

Not my words today, Said by a very influential/leader within the mod/thread

"The outlook for the next week, let alone the rest of February is not going to be decided by one or two operational or even ensemble suites"

 

 

Edited February 7, 2017 by Dancerwithwings

[MattH]

Knee-jerk, a joke!?...if that is what you believe then simply don't follow. I was simply highlighting what the EC ENS are showing and to be honest certain people need to read before commentating, perhaps it's about time to stop sharing that info as clearly people don't know how to interpret it correctly. Also this is what I put in the latest blog and quote;

"So, as things stand I do believe there is a good chance that at some point during the second half of February, perhaps into early March too that a Greenland block may well make an appearance with perhaps cold weather arriving from the north or north-east, one to definitely keep an eye on as the final third of winter progresses and for those looking for some early Spring weather could well be disappointed."

Second half of Feb or into early March, not by the 17th! 

Matt. 

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

Its impossible to have just 9 solutions backing the ECM in terms of pressure rising over Greenland and the other 42 not showing any pressure rise there at all and have that mean.

Perhaps  the others have some messy shortwave situation near the UK but that's not a big issue at this stage however if they show some pressure rise over Greenland that's the important thing.

This is why these types of tweets are beginning to seriously get on my txts because with the restriction in words theres simply not enough to get some detail down and then people in here are misled by what the broader picture shows.

I take it to mean that there are 9 attempts at a true Greenland block. Other members attempt it in a more messy fashion and only half heartedly get there before being cut off via shortwaves/LP etc. I can very well see how we could get that mean from that scenario.

[Man With Beard]

17 minutes ago, Paul said:

To be fair, those anomaly charts have been very good most of the winter. They've often pointed toward milder outcomes than the operationals, and more often than not that was proved correct. Not every time of course, and prior success or failure doesn't mean anything when it comes to a forecasting model, but there's plenty to be said for them. 

I completely agree. I've not hesitated to criticise the NOAA in past years when it has gone wrong but no problems with it this year. Scandi High has 100% verified so don't know why anyone would say it hasn't.

The NOAA chart tonight is the first time we've seen some sort of minor Greenland ridge, and Sir John Holmes would surely caution us to look for consistency over a couple of days!

But it's nice to see, which is why I posted it

[bluearmy]

9 minutes ago, joggs said:

I thought on his blog earlier he said he favours a gh mid/longer term?.

He seems to flip with every suite.

I think it's completely clear. Day 10 is too soon in his opinion for a greeny block which he has previously touted as being his preference mid/longer term  

obviosuly T240 is not mid/longer term 

[on the coast]

2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Its impossible to have just 9 solutions backing the ECM in terms of pressure rising over Greenland and the other 42 not showing any pressure rise there at all and have that mean.

Perhaps  the others have some messy shortwave situation near the UK but that's not a big issue at this stage however if they show some pressure rise over Greenland that's the important thing.

This is why these types of tweets are beginning to seriously get on my txts because with the restriction in words theres simply not enough to get some detail down and then people in here are misled by what the broader picture shows.

Agree Nick. Long term looks very promising and as this winter has shown the models have struggled more than I can remember. All to play for still.

[MR EXTREMES]

12 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Don't trust the EC ensembles. Remember when they were almost unanimously behind the Easterly earlier in the winter? And it didn't happen. I'd rather trust a piece of seaweed to be honest!

Haha I gotta laugh that really made me laugh nothing wrong with bit of wit and great way not to get to wrapped up in the chopping and changing with the models.

Anyway the models are very volitle and chopping and changing with every run.

But the lower heights into and around Europe will certainly be helping to extend this cold spell I reckon more changes and upgrades to come.

[nick sussex]

7 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

I take it to mean that there are 9 attempts at a true Greenland block. Other members attempt it in a more messy fashion and only half heartedly get there before being cut off via shortwaves/LP etc. I can very well see how we could get that mean from that scenario.

When someone tweets 42 unsettled and milder most people assume that's the Atlantic roaring in and you can't have that with that mean. I stand by my comments these types of tweets do nothing for this thread. If Matt wants to put more detail at least giving an overall view fine but if we saw the full 51 members I can guarantee you there won't be 42 members with no pressure rising over Greenland and that's what people may have taken from that tweet.

Edited February 7, 2017 by nick sussex

[Cheshire Freeze]

4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I think it's completely clear. Day 10 is too soon in his opinion for a greeny block which he has previously touted as being his preference mid/longer term  

obviosuly T240 is not mid/longer term 

A few of us singing from the same hymn sheet, all good...this from yesterday

 

[SMU]

Last week ( & @bluearmy) will back me up

I posted the ECM ENS suite which had just 1 member from 51 showing an easterly - I called it the cobra run - that has now verified...

iI will be posting up some info this eve around 1030 that should make some interesting viewing....

S

Edited February 7, 2017 by Steve Murr

[Guest]

Maybe we should have a winter tweet thread... would save all this nonsense every time a tweet is put in here.. ban tweets being posted in here and keep them to a specific thread, then anybody that wants to get involved in tweets can do so at there own will...

[london-snow]

Nick I agree it's frustrating but I don't blame Matt at all I blame people certain wums who like to take certain snippets from social media and not read and or post the full balanced post and do this so it causes a stir.