Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..

[Djdazzle]

Models have been woeful this winter. Met Office updates have also been woeful.

However, this Easterly was never modelled to show deep cold in the reliable. The high always looked like the wring shape.

[SMU]

Greenland High day 10 - on ECM I would say -...

Jet profile indicated upward motion around Greenland digging south & the scandi/euro high nudging west...

S

[January Snowstorm]

Well this spell is getting shorter and all models agree (as they did last night) on a warm up of sorts early next week. True an easterly flow for 3-4 days but a far cry from a properly potent one. Those who have lived through the 80's know what I mean.

As for which model is best my view is none but I'm getting more and more convinced that a blend of all three is a decent bet.

[winterof79]

2 minutes ago, igloo said:

im not sure matt mid febuary sun getting stronger +4 uppers daffs ready to push open first signs of spring is in the air still if its clear skies we will still get hard frosts during the night unless the models change again of course 

I must have missed all the detailed posts from Tamara,Chiono,nouska etc that give detailed explanations about possible way forward.What a shame none of it sinks in.

Instead I now have to read one liners with no charts posted to verify posters claims that the met are wrong and daffodils are pushing up.

[Johnp]

2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Greenland High day 10 - on ECM I would say -...

Jet profile indicated upward motion around Greenland digging south & the scandi/euro high nudging west...

S

I think the nuisance Atlantic low will prevent any retrogression meaning we'd be on the wrong side of any Greenland heights? 

[snowray]

Yes Steve I was thinking ECM looked different, heres the D9 chart. 

Greenland high anyone?

[Djdazzle]

There were lots of comments such as "that block will take some shifting." Yes it seems to be sunk very easily, if the models are to be believed. Am still not buying it yet though.

 

[The PIT]

Need to lose that pesky Low would be nice if it didn't develop the way shown and ended up further east. At the end of the ECM run it's still there.  In theory warm air flowing up the far side of Greenland should allow a northerly or north easterly outbreak down the other side. Okay I'm dreaming but it's faint hope if it gets modeled that in the next five runs or so.

[snowray]

10 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

According to the beeb, no 'beast from the east' and a covering of snow for hills at best.

Ohhh nooooo. Really? Thats terrible news there lassie. I saw sleet symbols on the Met Office site earlier but still think it should be ok for snow, if the PPN makes it inland that is.

 

Anyway, nice D10 charts there from ECM.

[snowray]

I bet everyone will be saying what a wonderful model the ECM is now!

[Ali1977]

V good ending to the ECM, I won't take much notice of it but nice all the same. This could well happen of course!!!

[Geordiesnow]

Just now, Djdazzle said:

There were lots of comments such as "that block will take some shifting." Yes it seems to be sunk very easily, if the models are to be believed. Am still not buying it yet though.

 

The block is still there, its just shifted orientation which if the models are to be believed then its going to pump up Southerlies next week so a cold snap with a small chance of some snow for some then turning slightly milder going into the new week.

Certainly no atlantic weather coming in so its a blocked outlook but as with the theme of the winter, there is no real joy in the outlook for coldies. If you can enjoy the upcoming easterly then good luck to you because stratuscumlus cloud with the slim chance of some snowfall really does not fill me with much joy at all!

Give me a proper convective NW'ly blast with cold uppers and then you got some exciting weather with a better chance of some snowfall.

[pureasthedriven]

7 minutes ago, snowray said:

Yes Steve I was thinking ECM looked different, heres the D9 chart. 

Greenland high anyone?

The old day 9/10 chestnut though, forever on the chase. Cynicism aside, genuine opportunities for something reasonably interesting in the 5 day period. Good agreement, micro features to be resolved in-situ. 

[Stravaiger]

4 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

There were lots of comments such as "that block will take some shifting." Yes it seems to be sunk very easily, if the models are to be believed. Am still not buying it yet though.

 

I think that there is a difference between shifting the blocking and sinking it. The block is still very much there and hasn't been shifted further east all winter really (unfortunately), but it does look to sink south as lower heights are slightly too far west to prop it up. 

ECM at least gives us a crumb of comfort and one way in which the block could still deliver cold later on this month.

[Anon90]

The better news from the 12z suite is that retrogression hasn't been completely muted, at least for the time being.

Edited February 7, 2017 by Anon90

[winterof79]

8 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

There were lots of comments such as "that block will take some shifting." Yes it seems to be sunk very easily, if the models are to be believed. Am still not buying it yet though.

 

Probably going to be sunk from an Artic torpedo .......win win

 

[Scandyhigh]

The gfs had a premature triggering of its Mjo forcing hence its Operationals overdoing things, now it's settled down.....Id go for the ECM evolution very feasible right up to day 10......Nice cold snap with possible snow showers, brief change as operationals get their act together before retrogression and a lovely Neaster as the CONUS call it...ECM right in a slower MJO forcing......Feb is becoming very interesting...

Edited February 7, 2017 by Scandyhigh

[booferking]

I can see a spoiler ECM Day 10 the Azores low again will cut of the Northerly. Yes/No?

[blizzard81]

1 hour ago, blizzard81 said:

Ecm will probably throw out a stonker of a run now lol. Wouldn't surprise me

Thank you ecm. I love you again

[shane303]

24 minutes ago, igloo said:

im not sure matt mid febuary sun getting stronger +4 uppers daffs ready to push open first signs of spring is in the air still if its clear skies we will still get hard frosts during the night unless the models change again of course 

Plenty of hard frosts and fog keeping surface temperatures down 

[snowray]

8 minutes ago, pureasthedriven said:

The old day 9/10 chestnut though, forever on the chase. Cynicism aside, genuine opportunities for something reasonably interesting in the 5 day period. Good agreement, micro features to be resolved in-situ. 

Yes but the Greenland high has been on the cards for some time now, in fact the ECM a cold run right out to the end, we get a couple of less cold days middle of next week, but by D8/9 the colder air is already moving south into northern Scotland.

 

None of the milder uppers make it on this run so definitely not spring like I would think.

[skifreak]

14 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Instead I now have to read one liners with no charts posted to verify posters claims that the met are wrong and daffodils are pushing up.

Well the Met Office updates were going for the likelihood of colder than average conditions in their extended outlooks, The opposite has been getting progressively more likely with every run, as can be seen in one go from the Aberdeen 850hpa Temp ensembles. A quick flick through the GFS 12z is a horror show  for Scottish Ski Areas not least because after a prolonged spell of settled conditions we could see the peak period of half term holidays being wild and wet! 

 

[Daniel*]

To me a cold snap is a 36 hour event usually in the form of a cr@ppy northerly. 

While not a prolonged spell of cold it is a cold spell, the best chance of snow this winter, calling it a snap is entirely underserving and wrong.

Cold air working in by tomorrow with snow flurries.

Just to demonstrate it is not a blink and you'll miss it event. ECM upper temps. 

Wednesday 

Thursday 

Friday

Saturday

Sunday

I'm dubious how fast our Scandi block is modelled to sink S too we have this beast of an anomaly at T+24.. I feel the models are being too quick to sink it.

  

Short term London GFS ensembles for London - strongest snow signal of the winter Thursday- Sunday. I don't know what folk were expecting a 1987 repeat?

It still seems like a decent blast to me. So drop the crybaby act! 

There is a very good chance we'll see another cold spell take off not far in the future IMO, the models may be yet to fully assimilate those background signals. 

Edited February 7, 2017 by Daniel*

[nick sussex]

Only just catching up with all the outputs today. Good to see the ECM finally getting to grips with the MJO signal, so it looks like a short less cold interlude after  a colder spell then a north/ne flow likely developing as pressure rises over Greenland. Not sure where all the gloom is coming from , the easterly was never forecast to be a throwback to the 80's. No output in the reliable timeframe had some deep cold hanging on for more than a few days.

This is the problem with easterlies that they take on a reputation which doesn't often match the expectations only in rare cases. Whats shown is what was realistically expected and any less cold interlude will be short and likely to be shortened further .

[blizzard81]

As Tamara was at pains to stress, two day time lag for the models to get to grips with the background signals. I am very positive with regards to a very cold Feb. I really wouldn't be surprised if the retrogression takes place more rapidly than what the ecm op showed tonight. The models struggle with retrogression and may very well be underplaying it.