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Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire
3 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

GFS gives the south double-figure temps on Monday

12_147_uk2mtmp.png?cb=736

Past Monday it's more of a north-south split with high single figures possibly just into double figures for the south but always colder the further south you go

12_171_uk2mtmp.png?cb=73612_195_uk2mtmp.png?cb=73612_219_uk2mtmp.png?cb=736

Based on GFS I would say more cold snap than cold spell

Indeed, however myself, CC and Warren are finding the above sentiments rounded upon and are being told we need to learn how to read chartsI honestly don't think next week (once the milder uppers are in on the SE'rly) is going to be as cold as people think!

I think the Met Office 6-15 dayer is leading people up the garden path.

Edited by Johnp
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Posted
  • Location: Emsworth, Hampshire
  • Location: Emsworth, Hampshire
3 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Defo an African sourced flow for several days on the GFS, it would be very warm in any sun if this was the case with temps maybe hitting the low teens.  This is what this run is showing anyway.

With 4c uppers over most of the UK, temperatures would indeed be higher than over the weekend, however with a continental flow and dew points of around 0-3c UK Wide, it would only be around 5-8c UK wide.

 

Anything past Sunday is not even worth looking at this stage, everyone just needs to enjoy what we've got coming this weekend first and worry about next week in a few days.

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Posted
  • Location: Whitefield, Manchester @ 100m
  • Location: Whitefield, Manchester @ 100m

Luckily the jet at day 10 on the 12z is nothing like the 6z. And it will change again next run.

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Posted
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)
8 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

Forget FI....In the short-term'ish the GFS 12Z is showing ,-11 850hpa's and snow showers for Saturday.....BRRR wind chill :cold:

84-7UK_onj2.GIF96-574UK_iyq1.GIF90-290UK_qfs4.GIF

Cant be very often we see charts predicting -10 upper and rain in the same place

 

Ignore me you have used different times there!

Edited by MKN
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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, freezes, bitterly cold and icy. Thunderstorms and heatwaves!
  • Location: Lincolnshire
1 minute ago, MKN said:

Cant be very often we see charts predicting -10 upper and rain in the same place

Yeah, do you know why this is? Or can anyone help me. Eastern regions having  a real mix of rain sleet and snow on Saturday with-7 uppers and dew points of 0 or below. Doesn't make sense to me.

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Posted
  • Location: Ramsey, Minnesota (USA)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms/Snow/Hail & Strong Winds
  • Location: Ramsey, Minnesota (USA)
2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

By day 10 it would definitely feel like spring...some actual warm uppers spreading northwards along with it. Best to keep an open mind and not discount anything. Anyway, I'm still of the opinion any warm up will be fairly brief, even if the first Greenland high attempt fails

gfsnh-0-240.png?12

All in all I agree. The Atlantic is still fairly static but we are kind of in no man's land aren't we by 264h on this run. 

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Posted
  • Location: Emsworth, Hampshire
  • Location: Emsworth, Hampshire
1 minute ago, MKN said:

Cant be very often we see charts predicting -10 upper and rain in the same place

Surface temperatures of -2 to -4 at the same time? Screams severe ice risk to me.

84-101UK_lfk1.thumb.GIF.45c966fa822433343fb3b1b19e77fb7a.GIF

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3 minutes ago, MKN said:

Cant be very often we see charts predicting -10 upper and rain in the same place

Warm north sea mixing out the uppers slightly thanks to a Brisk wind coming off the sea. Pretty common along the east coast then about 5-10 miles in land it snows again. 

Yes if you had negative temps on the ground then freezing rain would be an issue 

 

84-101UK_lfk1.GIF

Edited by Surrey
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Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire

Just looking at the chaotic ensembles from the 6z, we've got one of the milder FI runs.

MT8_London_ens.png

I'd still expect a wide scatter in the GEFS with all options on the table - my comments are merely for the 12z operationals.

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: South Norwood, London
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Cold Winters & Warm Dry Summers
  • Location: South Norwood, London

We've all seen various models be wrong in a big way as early as T+72 and then fall in line so to suggest as some are doing that the output being shown at T+168 is going to be correct seems ridiculous.

I think all we can take from the models at the moment is that it's going to get colder tomorrow and sometime over the next couple of days somewhere may see some snow but what happens beyond that is anybody's guess.

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
4 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I just don't believe our cold block will be displaced as easily as the Gfs shows..I would take what is being shown beyond Sunday with a large pinch of salt!

Why? The ECM has been showing this for days. 

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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
4 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I just don't believe our cold block will be displaced as easily as the Gfs shows..I would take what is being shown beyond Sunday with a large pinch of salt!

The recent european cold block and associated over done predictions of an Atlantic onslaught being a good example of that.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
5 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Why? The ECM has been showing this for days. 

Yes and the Ecm has been performing abysmally lately..I believe steve murr said as much earlier..and the pros don't see a change to milder weather next week either..sounded wintry to me! Anyway, the mod has descended into chaos again this afternoon..just like this morning..take more notice of Bring Back 1962-63 is my advice.

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
12 minutes ago, Johnp said:

Indeed, however myself, CC and Warren are finding the above sentiments rounded upon and are being told we need to learn how to read chartsI honestly don't think next week (once the milder uppers are in on the SE'rly) is going to be as cold as people think!

I think the Met Office 6-15 dayer is leading people up the garden path.

You are free to mail them your concerns regarding the GFS 12 Z

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Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos

The term "classic Easterly" has been banded around the last day or three. It isnt.

Wind direction is forecast to be from the SE in the main, other than Friday and the w/e. The source even from a south easterly at this time of the year can be bitterly cold. But.....take a look at current temps for Sofia, Bucharest...even Munich, and they are above freezing now and for coming days. That means our temps wont be anywhere near "classic easterly" values imo.

The exception is Friday and the w/e when the wind direction is more East/NE.

You need a feed direct from Moscow and Siberia for a few days to call it a classic Easterly in my book.

And temps for Moscow are forecast to 'rise' to just below freezing early next week. The East will not deliver next week.

Edited by Bristle boy
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Posted
  • Location: Dublin
  • Location: Dublin
2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Yes and the Ecm has been performing abysmally lately..I believe steve murr said as much earlier..and the pros don't see a change to milder weather next week either..sounded wintry to me!

Who says it has been performing abysmally?

 

Statistics wise it has been the best verifying model.

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Posted
  • Location: Ramsey, Minnesota (USA)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms/Snow/Hail & Strong Winds
  • Location: Ramsey, Minnesota (USA)
7 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I just don't believe our cold block will be displaced as easily as the Gfs shows..I would take what is being shown beyond Sunday with a large pinch of salt!

This I believe, and this in turn has a domino effect on the rest of the run. Because the block is being eroded too quick in my eyes there is a lack of ridging towards Greenland, even when the Azores high tries ridging up it is flattened and ends up forming the Euro Slug again. The Northerly showing in late FI on the 6z has been pushed east, the models have been overdoing the influence of the Atlantic for large parts of this winter and is the reason its pushed further east. (Only my personal beliefs of the issues with the progression of this run). 

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Posted
  • Location: Horley, near Gatwick
  • Location: Horley, near Gatwick
4 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Why? The ECM has been showing this for days. 

Yes - although nothing is yet to actually verify, that wretched ECM trend that started a few days ago was ominous then and whilst it seems it was over-progressive at the time, it has nonetheless brought the UK, GFS and GEM begrudgingly over to it's way of thinking leaving us, beyond this weekend, into what currently looks like the most banal of set-ups into the reasonably foreseeable (whatever that is). Potential going forward, or otherwise.

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)

GEM 12Z is the same as GFS regarding snow showers for Saturday are further south and seem to be more wide spread.

gem-2-96_tlh6.png

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Yes and the Ecm has been performing abysmally lately..I believe steve murr said as much earlier..and the pros don't see a change to milder weather next week either..sounded wintry to me!

Come off it, so because Steve Murr says it, it must be true? Some statistics maybe?

The other modelling has slowly been coming round to the ECM over the past 24 hours. Yes, it underestimated uppers for this weekend somewhat for a couple of runs, but I'm pretty sure it was the first model to spot the long draw SSE'ly for next week and now we get a failed retrogression attempt, an attempt the ECM has never been interested in. 

All models have their flaws and the only reason that UKMO gets less flak is because it stops at day 6!

 

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