Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

5 minutes ago, Luke Attwood said:

No he has a got a point,this cold will lead to nothing special.its looking like a cold snap rather then spell,people saying next week will be cold with higher 850's but it wont be that cold,probably 5/6c nothing special is it! It seems people are to bias on here when there's signs of cold coming,always trying to ramp it up.its almost like we lie to ourselfs in suggesting that it will be a lot colder then what is showing.

So it is definitely going to verify then is it?  The weekend is nowhere near being nailed yet let alone worrying about some temporary slightly milder uppers next week?

What are people seriously expecting?

We live in the UK not Siberia!

Edited February 6, 2017 by Kentish Snowman

[Paul_1978]

14 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Boooo! The 18z just did the equivalent of missing a 9 dart finish - with the 9th dart!

If you are referrring to the T+312 ish timescale then that's so far away it's not worth worrying about. 

[SMU]

16 minutes ago, Luke Attwood said:

No he has a got a point,this cold will lead to nothing special.its looking like a cold snap rather then spell,people saying next week will be cold with higher 850's but it wont be that cold,probably 5/6c nothing special is it! It seems people are to bias on here when there's signs of cold coming,always trying to ramp it up.its almost like we lie to ourselfs in suggesting that it will be a lot colder then what is showing.

5 or 6 you say... 

unless you live in Penzance....

S

[weirpig]

6 minutes ago, Luke Attwood said:

No he has a got a point,this cold will lead to nothing special.its looking like a cold snap rather then spell,people saying next week will be cold with higher 850's but it wont be that cold,probably 5/6c nothing special is it! It seems people are to bias on here when there's signs of cold coming,always trying to ramp it up.its almost like we lie to ourselfs in suggesting that it will be a lot colder then what is showing.

All academic but temps are showing around 2c for quite a large swathe of the uk under highish uppers. So although not exceptional still cold. Add on the windchill . Brass monkeys 

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

13 minutes ago, abruzzi spur said:

Not sure I'm obsessing TBH NNW

Uppers look volatile at the moment

Much water (hopefully frozen) to go under bridges until we can be sure

Pretending otherwise is unwise I think

Though this has the potential to be the most notable spell of the winter

Ice days are possible for some favoured locations

Even if the upper temps aren't great there's surface cold to think of.

Snow?  Still to be determined.

Continental derived air is all well and good, but the factor I see as
of primary importance is the orientation of the low pressure systems
below the Scandi High. Too far west means that the winds source
below, south of Spain, meaning that no matter what the 850's are
lower atmosphere temperatrures will be higher than expected. Whatever is
expected is liable to change anyway, as the models are incredibly unreliable at
reporting what will happena at T180 let alone at T384. I think anyone looking beyond T180
seems to have a stronger belief in the models than I have

[Timmytour]

7 minutes ago, Luke Attwood said:

No he has a got a point,this cold will lead to nothing special.its looking like a cold snap rather then spell,people saying next week will be cold with higher 850's but it wont be that cold,probably 5/6c nothing special is it! It seems people are to bias on here when there's signs of cold coming,always trying to ramp it up.its almost like we lie to ourselfs in suggesting that it will be a lot colder then what is showing.

Great to see newbies on here learn by asking questions with almost every post and then see in a matter of weeks the  subsequent transformation into them being able to pronounce that so many I would regard on here as really knowledgeable are getting hyped up over nothing. 

If only I was so quick to pick up on the fantastic analysis so many on here provide for which I'm truly grateful......from Steve Murr to Knocker. 

Alas it would appear I am not as good a pupil as some are....I am still learning,reading and taking it in...

[Man With Beard]

ECM monthly D15-D21, claims the Atlantic will be back. At odds with sounds coming out of the METO.

[geordiekev]

41 minutes ago, Luke Attwood said:

No he has a got a point,this cold will lead to nothing special.its looking like a cold snap rather then spell,people saying next week will be cold with higher 850's but it wont be that cold,probably 5/6c nothing special is it! It seems people are to bias on here when there's signs of cold coming,always trying to ramp it up.its almost like we lie to ourselfs in suggesting that it will be a lot colder then what is showing.

It was -6C here this morning,  barely up above freezing and now back down to nearly freezing.  It is cold already and snow already falling in places and that's before the entrees are even served. More than a snap I would say.

People on here know there's not always a pot of gold at the end of the rainbow, but enjoy the rainbow itself. That's how I view this special forum. It's a shame some are out there with such a bleak view. 

Personally I enjoy the thrill of the hunt nearly as much as the find 

Edited February 6, 2017 by geordiekev

[weirpig]

Just now, Man With Beard said:

ECM monthly D15-D21, claims the Atlantic will be back. At odds with sounds coming out of the METO.

Thank goodness for that. Nailed on cold spell  for me the monthlys have been awful this year. With all the background signals I can't see that happening . However as always time will tell 

[feb1991blizzard]

4 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

ECM monthly D15-D21, claims the Atlantic will be back. At odds with sounds coming out of the METO.

Have you got week 4 please?

[snowbunting]

4 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

ECM monthly D15-D21, claims the Atlantic will be back. At odds with sounds coming out of the METO.

The ECM cant even get D7-D14 right. Nope reckon blocking in some form or another in charge rest of Feb.

[Luke Attwood]

3 minutes ago, geordiekev said:

It was -6C here this morning,  barely up above freezing and now back down to nearly freezing.  It is cold already and snow already falling in places and that's before the entrees are even served. More than a snap I would say.

People on here know there's not always a pot of gold at the end of the rainbow, but enjoy the rainbow itself. That's how I view this special forum. It's a shame some are out there with such a bleak view. 

Not being bleak about things,of course it could turn out to be a very cold spell but I always remain cautious here in the UK because its so difficult to maintain cold conditions for a long period of time.

[Doctor96]

Been watching these charts for 38 yrs and unless some of you are really professionals , then I remain sceptical that we are seeing only three days of cold max 2 c and then just cool. But some on here seem pretty confident , so let see what happens . 

If we truly see the charts change and show deep cold for two weeks , then I  will accept there are some very  bright people on here. 

But at least we have something generally more exciting than the last few winters to speculate on.  

Just in my long experience as an amateur we need the High not to sink from today's position . 

 

[abruzzi spur]

Just now, NorthNorfolkWeather said:

Continental derived air is all well and good, but the factor I see as
of primary importance is the orientation of the low pressure systems
below the Scandi High. Too far west means that the winds source
below, south of Spain, meaning that no matter what the 850's are
lower atmosphere temperatrures will be higher than expected. Whatever is
expected is liable to change anyway, as the models are incredibly unreliable at
reporting what will happena at T180 let alone at T384. I think anyone looking beyond T180
seems to have a stronger belief in the models than I have

Without wishing to be rude NNW that really is cobblers.  Once we get the cold air in from the east then 

anything is possible and I would have thought that in Norfolk you'd be excited about this potential set-up rather than a 

naysayer?   After all the frigid air is closer to you than to many of us and you are I think being a little less than

kind in complaining about winds from Spain, it's tricky to understand what your point is

even at this late hour when we are all probably a bit model-frazzled and

ready for bed so I'll happily take another look at this in the morning and will keep an open mind about the prospects for 

snow.

[Mucka]

GFS ensembles out to 144 and they look better than 12z out to that time with pattern further West and stronger Easterly flow generally which ain't bad given the 12z set were coldest/best so far.

Edited February 6, 2017 by Mucka

[Luke Attwood]

13 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

5 or 6 you say... 

unless you live in Penzance....

S

Hi Steve I was referring to the uppers that are being showed for next week.+2/4 uppers on display would it still be cold?

[TEITS]

Lets be honest nobody knows exactly how this cold spell will evolve, the ECM certainly doesn't lol.

A quick unbiased summary though.

Snow flurries Thurs/Fri especially from E Scotland/NE England extending as far S as possibly Norfolk. Into the weekend a risk of snow showers becoming more widespread and heavier but uncertain whether it will be N England/S England at the moment. A risk these might become marginal with rain/sleet especially towards the coast.

Next week remaining cold despite picking up less cold upper temps from the SE. The temps could vary from 5 to just 1C  during the day but this is uncertain until the exact flow is established. The risk of snow fades during this period as its likely to be dry.

Further ahead strong signals the SE,ly could be replaced by a N/NE/ENE,ly as pressure rises towards Greenland.

 

If anyone moans about this outlook then move to Lapland!

 

 

[TEITS]

2 minutes ago, Luke Attwood said:

Hi Steve I was referring to the uppers that are being showed for next week.+2/4 uppers on display would it still be cold?

Recently the max temps in Peterborough were only -2C despite upper temps at 3C.

[weirpig]

3 minutes ago, Doctor96 said:

Been watching these charts for 38 yrs and unless some of you are really professionals , then I remain sceptical that we are seeing only three days of cold max 2 c and then just cool. But some on here seem pretty confident , so let see what happens . 

If we truly see the charts change and show deep cold for two weeks , then I  will accept there are some very  bright people on here. 

But at least we have something generally more exciting than the last few winters to speculate on.  

Just in my long experience as an amateur we need the High not to sink from today's position . 

 

I can't see your location. But right up till 240 which is way fi  middle England doesn't get above 2c  which is a decent cold spell  I could be wrong but I sense a decent cold spell developing 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

7 minutes ago, Timmytour said:

Great to see newbies on here learn by asking questions with almost every post and then see in a matter of weeks the  subsequent transformation into them being able to pronounce that so many I would regard on here as really knowledgeable are getting hyped up over nothing. 

If only I was so quick to pick up on the fantastic analysis so many on here provide for which I'm truly grateful......from Steve Murr to Knocker. 

Alas it would appear I am not as good a pupil as some are....I am still learning,reading and taking it in...

Been one of the best things I've done, joining this forum! You just never stop learning, and there's always things to talk about and keep you busy! Whether it be snow and blizzards or supercells and MCS's! 

Seen some mad roller coaster rides in here over the years both containing tears of joy and frustration! 2012/13 had to be up there as the best, regarding the failed Dec 2012 easterly but a recovery during the next month. 

One thing for sure is that you will learn so much in here if you visit frequently  

anyway, a further upgrade on the 18z and dare I say it, a greenie high! 

[Mucka]

ECM London ensembles

I would expect asome recovery in temps but then the mean to fall away again. Clearly ECM singing from another hymn sheet.

Edited February 6, 2017 by Mucka

[Luke Attwood]

1 minute ago, TEITS said:

Lets be honest nobody knows exactly how this cold spell will evolve, the ECM certainly doesn't lol.

A quick unbiased summary though.

Snow flurries Thurs/Fri especially from E Scotland/NE England extending as far S as possibly Norfolk. Into the weekend a risk of snow showers becoming more widespread and heavier but uncertain whether it will be N England/S England at the moment. A risk these might become marginal with rain/sleet especially towards the coast.

Next week remaining cold despite picking up less cold upper temps from the SE. The temps could vary from 5 to just 1C  during the day but this is uncertain until the exact flow is established. The risk of snow fades during this period as its likely to be dry.

Further ahead strong signals the SE,ly could be replaced by a N/NE/ENE,ly as pressure rises towards Greenland.

 

If anyone moans about this outlook then move to Lapland!

 

 

So your in hope that we will see retrogression next week, like the gfs is showing let's hope its right.as the ECM goes with southeasterly winds vearing southerly! Horrible

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

No AB I think you are wrong

until we get proper verification of what will happen this weekend, I don't think anything is set in stone

Tomorrow and the day after are vital, with an Easterly flow starting to pick up and forcing warmer air away

to our West, leaving probably only Ireland, Cornwall and Pembrokeshire in milder conditions. But it seems

every run varies so much that upgrade, downgrade, it seems to change every time, sometimes good, sometimes not

really doesn't matter very much one way or the other, the weather will do what it will, "Butterfly Effect" nayone?

Safe to say it will all play out with some being disappointed no matter what the outcome

[Cheshire Freeze]

16 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

ECM monthly D15-D21, claims the Atlantic will be back. At odds with sounds coming out of the METO.

It's plausible...it retrogresses the HP but just a little too much...There were a few GEFS perts like that in the 12z suite

[tight isobar]

The key issues here are alluded to via both gfs-ecm..

And flag up again' the massive ramifications for both cases..ie the extent of cold/prolongement and more importantly the smooth-or not so smooth evolution to further decent development of blocking north west-Greenland. .

And now matter what atm..its anyone's guess after the weekend whether the in place cell sinks/links/retrogreseses. 

However the 18zgfs finds an evolutionary path via decent placement-and settlement. 

And there is much to chew over.

And perhaps' be amazed over.

Plenty of options for cold/snow weather fans.....thats 'a certainty'.

Edited February 6, 2017 by tight isobar