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Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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BLAST FROM THE PAST Maestro

BLAST FROM THE PAST

Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
Posted (edited)

This 18z is cold all the way.  Could be an incredible cold deep FI set up going for the bonkers JMA Huge GHP....1060 to 1065 so not alone

 

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2017020618/gfs-0-240.png?18

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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blizzard81 Maestro

blizzard81

Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
Posted
10 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

So is everyone now looking west at T+201?

I am now lol. Just seen the day 10 chart :) 

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chionomaniac Maestro

chionomaniac

Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
Posted

For what we are offered in the short term, and what we potentially achieve in the long term this is a great run without ever hitting the nail on the head. It would only take a slight shift in orientations and the 850's would be very different indeed.

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skatefan Rookie

skatefan

Posted
  • Location: Netherlands
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summer, Cold winter
  • Location: Netherlands
Posted
1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

I am now lol. Just seen the day 10 chart :) 

T240 reaching out for Greenland.......

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blizzard81 Maestro

blizzard81

Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
Posted
1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

If we can get a direct Northerly from this it'll have some serious bite to it !!IMG_4221.thumb.PNG.0d444ecfe6cc50192756049c5d33c73e.PNG

IMG_4222.PNG

Polar lows galore lol. Isn't this just great model viewing.

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Ice Day Veteran

Ice Day

Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
Posted (edited)

Huge building of heights showing from earlier in the run.  This at 252 and 276 would have major ramifications down the line. Massive incoming northerly for Europe.  Edit - scuppered by I'm not sure what!  The Greenie high just sort of vanished - quite strange really.

5898fd2a27c6f_gfsnh-0-276(2).thumb.png.3209a12020d1eb0d5b2f21264d9c8274.png

gfsnh-0-252.png

Edited by Ice Day
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Met4Cast Maestro

Met4Cast

Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
Posted

Incredible. The GFS manages to dissolve a 1060MB blocking area of high pressure in the space of 3 frames. 

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tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted

Yeah-yeah FI and all that but if people aren't happy with this as a starting board...that being after resolve of the upcoming cold-poss- snow then give up the ghost. .lol..

Some cracking resolutions I feel incoming outputs. ....

gfsnh-0-240.png

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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted

The favoured fi route of the GEFS (and eps control btw) 

a fair few  of those  GEFS members ended up with the main thrust to our east as the ridge held close to the uk. We may be seeing the week 2 trend playing out here. Certainly the trend of though tomorrow could easily be different! 

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Doctor96 Explorer

Doctor96

Posted
  • Location: Yarm , Middlesbrough
  • Weather Preferences: snow
  • Location: Yarm , Middlesbrough
Posted

Guys , what appears to be coming  in the next few days appears so little compared to what we thought only yesterday. At the moment not the two weeks of severe cold , but a little cold for three days.  Pressure too high when it is cold for significant snow  and when pressure lowers the mild air comes in.  Pretty awful . 

 

The high is still there next week and after but cool air only from its SE direction. We need the Scandi high much further west and not to sink any further . 

I dont know where the optimism on this board comes from. It is from years of cold and snow starvation .

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted
2 minutes ago, Johnp said:

Still manages to go wrong and gets cut off by a random short wave.

The trend is good though...

That's GFS low res for you...no way that low behaves like that if that was being modelled within hi-res. All academic anyway as it's the trending we're interested in at those timeframes.

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winterof79 Veteran

winterof79

Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
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Posted
2 minutes ago, Doctor96 said:

Guys , what appears to be coming  in the next few days appears so little compared to what we thought only yesterday. At the moment not the two weeks of severe cold , but a little cold for three days.  Pressure too high when it is cold for significant snow  and when pressure lowers the mild air comes in.  Pretty awful . 

 

The high is still there next week and after but cool air only from its SE direction. We need the Scandi high much further west and not to sink any further . 

I dont know where the optimism on this board comes from. It is from years of cold and snow starvation .

Any one got a link to the learning thread?

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weirpig Maestro

weirpig

Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington
Posted

Well very good 18z. Bar a few days of above 0 uppers which will still feel cold  the whole run was cold and blocked  time to dig the winter woolies out . Also of note is the windchill  hopefully might even get a few more upgrades regarding snow potential 

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abruzzi spur Experienced

abruzzi spur

Posted
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey 105 m (top floor 120m)
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey 105 m (top floor 120m)
Posted
7 minutes ago, NorthNorfolkWeather said:

will it?  won't it?  one of the questions we keep asking.  Me?  I'll see what the weather does, obsessing on every model run will not help

Not sure I'm obsessing TBH NNW

Uppers look volatile at the moment

Much water (hopefully frozen) to go under bridges until we can be sure

Pretending otherwise is unwise I think

Though this has the potential to be the most notable spell of the winter

Ice days are possible for some favoured locations

Even if the upper temps aren't great there's surface cold to think of.

Snow?  Still to be determined.

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chionomaniac Maestro

chionomaniac

Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
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Posted

From the moment the Azores high ridged further north in the earlier frames one could tell that the Greenland high was coming. It may not evolve quite like the 18Z shows, and certainly I wouldn't bother taking the low res into consideration, but I would be very surprised given all the background signals if we didn't end up with something similar in 10 days time. And in the meantime we have the Scandi cold thrust to look forward to. Happy days.

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Kentish Snowman in Yorks Experienced

Kentish Snowman in Yorks

Posted
  • Location: Hemingfield, South Yorkshire (49m / 160ft ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Summer Sunshine / Winter Snow
  • Location: Hemingfield, South Yorkshire (49m / 160ft ASL)
Posted
4 minutes ago, Doctor96 said:

Guys , what appears to be coming  in the next few days appears so little compared to what we thought only yesterday. At the moment not the two weeks of severe cold , but a little cold for three days.  Pressure too high when it is cold for significant snow  and when pressure lowers the mild air comes in.  Pretty awful . 

 

The high is still there next week and after but cool air only from its SE direction. We need the Scandi high much further west and not to sink any further . 

I dont know where the optimism on this board comes from. It is from years of cold and snow starvation .

There are no words.....:fool:

Back to the models the 18z looks pretty darn good in the reliable time frame if you are of a cold persuasion and is just another variation on the ongoing theme.

Even when we lose the cold uppers on this run it will still feel bitter at the surface.  :cold:

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Luke Attwood Apprentice

Luke Attwood

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Any one got a link to the learning thread?

No he has a got a point,this cold will lead to nothing special.its looking like a cold snap rather then spell,people saying next week will be cold with higher 850's but it wont be that cold,probably 5/6c nothing special is it! It seems people are to bias on here when there's signs of cold coming,always trying to ramp it up.its almost like we lie to ourselfs in suggesting that it will be a lot colder then what is showing.

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Wilxy Seasoned

Wilxy

Posted
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
Posted
4 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Well very good 18z. Bar a few days of above 0 uppers which will still feel cold  the whole run was cold and blocked  time to dig the winter woolies out . Also of note is the windchill  hopefully might even get a few more upgrades regarding snow potential 

As the saying goes get the cold in first and the snow potential will come! Because the charts won't be able to show small disturbances in the flow that far out so all to play for as long as the easterly is still there tomorrow! 

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skatefan Rookie

skatefan

Posted
  • Location: Netherlands
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summer, Cold winter
  • Location: Netherlands
Posted
8 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

That's GFS low res for you...no way that low behaves like that if that was being modelled within hi-res. All academic anyway as it's the trending we're interested in at those timeframes.

Yes. It was interesting to see how GFS low-res played with the Greenland-scenario. We'll have to wait and see whether this develops in a FI-trend...

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SMU Maestro

SMU

Posted
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Posted

It would be nice if over the next 24 hours that stiff ESE could be squeezed just a bit flatter so we keep the nice dewpoints-

The 18z has about 36 hours in 'warmth' from 138 -174 where the dewpoint is >0c 

then it tumbles again- getting an easterly squeeze would certainly shorten it...

BTW one for @IDO this is the 10 day 12z mean.... :)

IMG_2386.thumb.PNG.585184645b3f2620c94b243759c52373.PNG

S

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