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Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

Cheeky upgrade at T78 with the Scandy high slightly further North and stronger, and the Easterly flow also stronger which may aid some shower activity!! 850s as a result are lower.

IMG_4213.PNG

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, winterof79 said:

Take a few seconds to look at this and when our next m-ld spell comes you will appreciate what a special chart this is

graphe3_1000_262.0400085449219_32.459999

We will not be out of the freezer too long, if at all, looking at the trend

And it just illustrates my point further wrt the blip while retrogression occurs.

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
1 minute ago, winterof79 said:

Take a few seconds to look at this and when our next m-ld spell comes you will appreciate what a special chart this is

graphe3_1000_262.0400085449219_32.459999

We will not be out of the freezer too long, if at all, looking at the trend

Yeah that's very good, and I imagine the mild less cold) blip won't be so mild this run!!

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Posted
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.

Worst case scenario continental cold SElys and the atlantic goes for a long holiday until the autumn.

Recm2161.gif

Edited by Snowyowl9
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
50 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

In my opinion ensembles are a complete waste of time in this type of setup, if we can't nail down details on the ops within 3 days, lower resolution ensemble suites certainly won't have a good handle on it.

Both the GFS and ECM suites have been flopping about like floundering fish, hardly inspires confidence.

I don't think so,W...If nothing else they illustrate the point at which the 'reliable' becomes FI?

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Posted
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL

gfs-0-108.png?18

GFS continues to push everything further west and a much better angle of heights pushing north!

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Gfs 18z illustrating the mass importance of that hp cell format. 

Placement the difference between both' spread progression of 850's and depth of minima. 

Continues to improve on each run....a good sign.

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
8 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

Critically tonight the position of the low to our SW is slightly further west - that helps the easterly flow make it further west and prevents the azores high ridging too far east. More amplitude to the north west towards Iceland with the extending Azores high

This has the effect of introducing warmer uppers further north into Europe towards the south east but I look at this as being a short term loss for a long term gain.

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Now thats at 120 a perfectly placed arm of waa into Iceland. .and height limpit at Scandinavia. .

Can we get the link....

Then cutting of heights into Greenland. ..its feasible. !?

gfs-0-120.png

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
2 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

Well, if the price for some weekend snowfall is a blob of relative mildness, next week...isn't that price worth paying?:D

Wasnt it only yday that the Meto were talkibg about a cold and blocked February? These updates have chopped and changed on a fairly regular basis this Winter

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Posted
  • Location: Ramsey, Minnesota (USA)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms/Snow/Hail & Strong Winds
  • Location: Ramsey, Minnesota (USA)
3 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Now thats at 120 a perfectly placed arm of waa into Iceland. .and height limpit at Scandinavia. .

Can we get the link....

The cutting of heights into Greenland. ..its feasible. !?

gfs-0-120.png

Its getting close! Lovely WAA

GH.PNG

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

Edged toward GEM with the Atlantic profile so that sets the mind wondering.

Further west instead of east Euro low is a different path forward though - as Chiono has hinted.

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
5 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

This has the effect of introducing warmer uppers further north into Europe towards the south east but I look at this as being a short term loss for a long term gain.

Looking less and less likely that we will get the stress free option of a straight forward direct scandi to Greenie link up.

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey 105 m (top floor 120m)
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey 105 m (top floor 120m)

Terribly exciting to see the computer models at the moment.

Wonder if things will varify this time round?

Always the risk of downgrades in such a volatile set-up

Tempting to jump to conclusions but caution is the key for the next few days

So let's see how this plays out, at least initially.

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
2 minutes ago, inghams85 said:

Notice how things are quieter because the South East isn't getting as low uppers or isn't within the cold pool lol excellent run for Central/North East England though! Snow fest fri/sat/Sunday here!

Uppers are low enough down here for snow!

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Posted
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL

Even though uppers are higher dew points will certainly be low enough for wintry showers in that flow!

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