Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..

[Man With Beard]

NOAA 8-14

Weakish Atlantic/S Greenland/Scandi heights. Still a low height anomaly to the south. Only someone brave would say cold for the UK could not result.

Edited February 6, 2017 by Man With Beard

[Summer Sun]

Update from Ian following the ECM ens

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Update from Ian following the ECM ens

Well, if the price for some weekend snowfall is a blob of relative mildness, next week...isn't that price worth paying?

[stotm]

3 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Update from Ian following the ECM ens

Can't be discounted, oh yes it can I just have.

[Seasonality]

3 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Update from Ian following the ECM ens

Credit to Ian. He tells it like it is. Think he has to as a representative of the meto and just call each run as seen. The general public aren't interested in the micro-analysis many of us are.

[nick sussex]

Not sure whats causing the ECM so many problems trying to model the current pattern but its been a dismal failure for the last few days:

If you take yesterdays 12hrs run to T144hrs and then compare it tonights to T120hrs:

Then take last nights 12hrs run to T168hrs and then compare that tonights T144hrs:

 

You can see its having big issues over Greenland and to the nw with the PV set up. And if the ensembles are having these same problems then I'd be dubious of reading too much into those either.

PS for some reason the right images aren't loading up but hopefully you can see enough from those smaller ones!

 

 

Edited February 6, 2017 by nick sussex

[damianslaw]

Key difference in today's models is for more pronounced ridging westwards, with a tight pressure gradient on a more direct easterly axis, which would increase chance for showery activity / trough development by the weekend, but far too early to make any predictions on where precipitation might fall, and how heavy it will be.

ECM and GFS offering diverse evolution next week, ECM sinks the heights and we see a slack airstream, GFS is building heights to the NW very robustly which eventually would pull down very cold air from the north and north east.

UKMO remains very bullish with a strong easterly flow, and is the coldest of all the charts. Its done well this winter, and has been a trend setter. 

[Weathizard]

In my opinion ensembles are a complete waste of time in this type of setup, if we can't nail down details on the ops within 3 days, lower resolution ensemble suites certainly won't have a good handle on it.

Both the GFS and ECM suites have been flopping about like floundering fish, hardly inspires confidence.

[abruzzi spur]

Agreed Singularity, of all the things that drive me nuts on this thread the most nut-provoking is the idea that professional forecasters might be 'mild rampers'.  That accusation is generally made when the forecast on the TV doesn't match the, shall we say, sometimes rather excitable stuff on here.  Yes, sometimes the pros are wrong but, honestly, who isn't?   Was Mr Kettley ever told off for being a fan of 'proper winter'?  Recently Tomasz Slapperknicker was lauded on here for a forecast when he was practically bouncing around and apparently loving cold and snow.  Turns out he really likes mild but is actually a weather enthusiast.  It's unusual for the coldest model solutions to verify (as opposed to 'varify' another word for the NW dictionary, vary or verify?) and keeping that in mind might just be a help over the coming days.  

[sparky1972]

i like your optimisim but apparently with the wind comming off a warm north sea it moderates the temps, reason that is not going to be as cold here, i guess we must be in the one location that would sooner see a northerly or north easterly set up, lol

[feb1991blizzard]

Not sure what the surprise is wrt Ian's post, the GFS as well now is showing a much more southerly component than E'ly towards the 10 day range, 14th only equals day 8 and the aforementioned wind direction shift is almost certainly going to bring in milder temps but is this just temporarily while the retrogression to Greenland occurs?, if that is the case then there would be a sharp dip again a few days later, if not then yes it is probably the beginning signal of the end of the meteorological winter.

[blizzard81]

4 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Not sure whats causing the ECM so many problems trying to model the current pattern but its been a dismal failure for the last few days:

If you take yesterdays 12hrs run to T144hrs and then compare it tonights to T120hrs:

Then take last nights 12hrs run to T168hrs and then compare that tonights T144hrs:

 

You can see its having big issues over Greenland and to the nw with the PV set up.

 

 

Indeed. It has always had a problem with the modelling of heights in the Greenland locale. Many on here will know about it's over amplification issues in this area. I wonder if it's present difficulties are as a result of the model's recent upgrade? In other words, maybe they have tried to rectify the amplification bias over the Greenland area but in doing so, they have over compensated so as to cause the model to under amplify in this location. Just a thought  

[nick sussex]

So the ECM ops which have been clueless for the last few days can't cope past day 5 and we're supposed to buy the lower resolution ensembles are now seeing average or above average. I take it the UKMO have noted the woeful ECM performance of recent days. The ECM has got the bit that's most important re the PV and pattern to the nw wrong at day 5 and 6 and now we're supposed to bring out the welcome spring mats because its ensembles suggest milder at day 8! lmao

[feb1991blizzard]

GFS parallel illustrates my point nicely, if not the potent Northerly at the end, there is a big rise in temps followed by a sharp drop at the end as the high retrogresses and switches winds from SSE to Northerly.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=204&code=0&mode=0&runpara=1&carte=1

Edited February 6, 2017 by feb1991blizzard

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

So the ECM ops which have been clueless for the last few days can't cope past day 5 and we're supposed to buy the lower resolution ensembles are now seeing average or above average. I take it the UKMO have noted the woeful ECM performance of recent days. The ECM has got the bit that's most important re the PV and pattern to the nw wrong at day 5 and 6 and now we're supposed to bring out the welcome spring mats because its ensembles suggest milder at day 8! lmao

Days 8/10 also above average uppers on 12z GEFS nick

maybe some don't want to hear it but the gems and GEFS are drifting towards the less cold eps in the mid term. what follows remains uncertain as could be a cold reload. Agreed that the op ECM has been dodgy for a while now but there remains a lack of agreed broad outcome beyond day 6/7. 

[Methuselah]

Well I, for one, do not profess to know just how this easterly (blast? incursion?) is going to pan out...I have though, being an 'old codger' seen many such an 'event' during my life-time: some (1963, '79, '82) have turned into memorable spells; others, the vast majority, have petered-out within a matter of days...So, please, do not write off the ECM, at this stage? As Ian F has intimated: beware?

Prepare for the worst, hope for the best?

[Summer Sun]

JMA showing one of those silly highs again (note the 1085)

Edited February 6, 2017 by Summer Sun

[blizzard81]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

GFS parallel illustrates my point nicely, if not the potent Northerly at the end, there is a big rise in temps followed by a sharp drop at the end as the high retrogresses and switches winds from SSE to Northerly.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=204&code=0&mode=0&runpara=1&carte=1

Those charts have got Tamara's name written all over them

[SMU]

Tonights X rated movie 

UKMO 850s- much colder now than last 2 days

http://ukmo.3bmeteo.com/mappe/movie/movie.php?dire=UKMWORD_12&base=GH+T850_EUROPA

& the 120 chart in isolation showing the -9c isotherm widespread over the UK associated with showery activity pushing WSW....

Best

edited movie

 

 

Edited February 6, 2017 by Steve Murr

[nick sussex]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Days 8/10 also above average uppers on 12z GEFS nick

maybe some don't want to hear it but the gems and GEFS are drifting towards the less cold eps in the mid term. what follows remains uncertain as could be a cold reload. Agreed that the op ECM has been dodgy for a while now but there remains a lack of agreed broad outcome beyond day 6/7.

That maybe the case but neither the UKMO or GFS  have been as woeful over the last few days as the ECM. Of course as the retrogression happens there might be a shorter interlude of less cold temps however I'm not buying the ECMs shortwave frenzy and also some volatility is to be expected however the ECM has been volatile within T144hrs. The MJO remains on track towards the favourable colder phases and with that I'm happy to remain optimistic for cold and snow through the next few weeks.

[Methuselah]

Crikey, we've got such a wide range of 850s, early next week, it's hard to know what's going to happen...No wonder the MetO is hedging its bets!

[Djdazzle]

7 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Days 8/10 also above average uppers on 12z GEFS nick

maybe some don't want to hear it but the gems and GEFS are drifting towards the less cold eps in the mid term. what follows remains uncertain as could be a cold reload. Agreed that the op ECM has been dodgy for a while now but there remains a lack of agreed broad outcome beyond day 6/7. 

Day 8 is FI so nothing to worry about yet.

However, it would be typical for it all to go wrong now that the Met have mentioned possible cold for the whole of Feb. Mind you, their medium term forecasts are no better than the models we get to see

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

1 minute ago, AmershamMike said:

I love you Steve!!

It's not Valentine's Day yet?!  I have a hunch the 18z GFS will churn out a pub run special tonight and we will be able to go to sleep happy dreaming of snowmageddon....until morning when the ECM brings us back down to earth with some mild SW Zephyrs!

[Summer Sun]

Tonight's model tracker showing the differing solutions among them

GEM is the coldest from the 11th to 16

ECM Op on the warmer side with the GFS Op just the warmest on the 15th

[winterof79]

Take a few seconds to look at this and when our next m-ld spell comes you will appreciate what a special chart this is

We will not be out of the freezer too long, if at all, looking at the trend

Edited February 6, 2017 by winterof79