Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..

[Anon90]

Can't help but get a sense of deja vu here, I'm pretty sure the ECM was the first to suggest a warm up/the strat not really playing ball back February 2012 and it was proven correct.

[Mucka]

14 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Regarding the flattening of the Scandi high, this is unavoidable because the PV wants to move east/ne towards Siberia. However theres a big difference between a flattening and a sinking without trace.

If theres a signal to retrogress you always get some sinking before you get another pressure rise to the north and you hope that a chunk of the PV can get sw as that happens.

 

This.

100% of GFS ensembles have us in a SE/E flow out to 180 (FI)

I am not seeing any issue at all at the moment. We are just seeing small variations on the blocking theme and UKMO 144 looks great to me.

Wouldn't we be normally drooling at charts like this?

I expect ECM to improve again this evening.

[Rocheydub]

2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

You're welcome. Although I think sanity might be pushing it with me! lol Everyone knows I'm not slow in throwing my toys out of the pram if I think the situation warrants it however I see nothing to be worried about. No sign at all of the Atlantic winning this battle and with the MJO on side  the models are trying to work out how to retrogress the pattern.

Nail on the head as usual Nick. I think the rattler throwing may come from a bit of 'my back garden' weather, and the vagaries of each 6 or 12 hourly run... The posting of GFS precip charts from T-96 or 120 is one of my favourite chuckle moments..."Look, it's dry now, 6 hours ago it was showing a dump of snow"!

 

It will come with time and experience to all, meanwhile encouragement and explanation will help the less experienced!

[Johnp]

2 minutes ago, Mucka said:

This.

100% of GFS ensembles have us in a SE/E flow out to 180 (FI)

I am not seeing any issue at all at the moment. We are just seeing small variations on the blocking theme and UKMO 144 looks great to me.

Wouldn't we be normally drooling at charts like this?

I expect ECM to improve again this evening.

Indeed, but as Fergie tweeted that it's looking less likely for a blizzard in Plymouth, it's apparently all one massive downgrade!

[Tim Bland]

A nice kink in the flow in the south East on UKMO for Sunday would provide some light snow I would have thought ? 

[Mucka]

5 minutes ago, Johnp said:

Indeed, but as Fergie tweeted that it's looking less likely for a blizzard in Plymouth, it's apparently all one massive downgrade!

Yeah but we are all a bit NIMBY

I'm more concerned about people seeing the big picture as bad and talking about sinking highs. 

Out to day 10 there is 1 solitary member out of 21 that sinks the high enough for a breakdown.

P15

 

I'm sure peeps will feel better after tonight's ECM (I hope!)

Edited February 6, 2017 by Mucka

[Connor Bailey Degnan]

GFS 12z and UKM are both decent in the short term for delivery snow showers to eastern areas, poss light covering. 

Saturday and Sunday becoming very hard to forecast I bet for the professionals. It could deliver either a dry weekend, with snow grains for some, however, we could see a snow event, or, a mix of rain and hill snow.

I await ECM with huge interest, unfortunately I feel it will stick to its guns. Time will tell.

[johnholmes]

a brief idea in plain English of what may happen during Thursday, link below

 

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Agree with mucka regarding no issue. 

I can see the easterly now just firming up short term, it's not a long fetched easterly but it doesn't need to be because we have already the cold air in place and in central Europe so it just sits there only slowly migrating West, and while I actually think we may well have a milder spell of uppers from the east as it takes on much more southeast type flow this doesn't really happen till t160ish and that's most definitely fi  then, think about it when was the last time a t144 chart for the UK ever really came true? Yes it's the best this year by far but it's still rare to get accurate charts that far out so it's just trying to find patterns at that range. We need to keep our eyes peeled for:

A surge of cold air to drop into Russia

A reshaping of the scandi high to bring the cold air West again after the initial surge 

Signs of retrogression northwest as the vortex migrates east 

Edited February 6, 2017 by Severe Siberian icy blast

[Ali1977]

Anyway - on different note we have a great set of ENS!!! A snap shot of 6 at day 10 show signs of a Greeny high. 

 

Edited February 6, 2017 by Ali1977

[Cheshire Freeze]

2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Anyway - on different note we have a great set of ENS!!!

Mean pressure anomaly day 11ish

Nice Greenland anomaly there

Arguably even better by 300 hours, with slight whiff of Scandi trough

Edited February 6, 2017 by CreweCold

[Buzz]

6 minutes ago, Mucka said:

This.

100% of GFS ensembles have us in a SE/E flow out to 180 (FI)

I am not seeing any issue at all at the moment. We are just seeing small variations on the blocking theme and UKMO 144 looks great to me.

Wouldn't we be normally drooling at charts like this?

I expect ECM to improve again this evening.

Indeed, the problem is that some people are NEVER satisfied and ALWAYS want more, more, MORE.

Some are also trolling of course while others are genuinely going into baby-panic mode.

I do think that the potential incoming weather looks great and is the best we've seen for years. The actual pattern is not yet fixed but we have a general idea of how things are going to pan out. For those that want huge amounts of snow, wait and see what turns up. Also, as myself and others have said many, many times before, stop taking the medium (and long term) forecasts as gospel. They WILL change, even a few days away. We have atlantic weather pushing up against a huge and very cold block of air, the best computers in the world cannot predict exactly how such a "battle" will pan out.

Treat any model output greater than 72 hours away with a fair amount of caution - heck, in the current setup the model output is changing just 48 or 72 hours out.

And ..... relax.

[booferking]

6 minutes ago, Severe Siberian icy blast said:

Agree with mucka regarding no issue. 

I can see the easterly now just firming up short term, it's not a long fetched easterly but it doesn't need to be because we have already the cold air in place and in central Europe so it just sits there only slowly migrating West, and while I actually think we may well have a murders spell of uppers from the east as it takes on much more southeast type flow this doesn't really happen till t160ish and that's most definitely fi  then, think about it when was the last time a t144 chart for the UK ever really came true? Yes it's the best this year by far but it's still rare to get accurate charts that far out so it's just trying to find patterns at that range. We need to keep our eyes peeled for:

A surge of cold air to drop into Russia

A reshaping of the scandi high to bring the cold air West again after the initial surge 

Signs of retrogression northwest as the vortex migrates east 

Retrogression signs is what i want to see for it looks very dry but cold over here very little shower activity what so ever from the projected Easterly.

Edited February 6, 2017 by booferking

[Cheshire Freeze]

Perturbation 1 gets the idea

[Mucka]

2 minutes ago, booferking said:

Retrogression signs is what i want to see for it looks very dry but cold over here very little shower activity what so ever from the projected Easterly.

P18 is nearly the perfect retrograde pattern from NE based blocking to NW based blocking.

 

We can but hope

[Southender]

All roads lead to colder weather IMO and even signs of the Scandi HP retrogressing towards Greenland mid/later in Feb.

Maybe a slight relaxing of the colder weather at times, but certainly no action from the atlantic in the foreseeable. Still remaining cold at the surface regardless.

Snow opportunities for most over the next couple of weeks I feel. But details only firming up 48-72hrs out in that regard.

The best nationwide cold spell of the season, will shortly begin....

[Cheshire Freeze]

Pert 18 is probably one of the best structured Greenland highs you'll ever see

EDIT: just seen Mucka has already picked up on this pert!

Edited February 6, 2017 by CreweCold

[Mucka]

Fairly sure these are coldest set of short ensembles to date (Central England)

[nick sussex]

Come on folks lets turn a page on some of the earlier gloom. Theres more things in our favour in terms of cold and snow than at anytime for the whole winter.

I can understand people might get a bit worried seeing the Scandi high flatten for a time but its important to think of that as the next chance to get some deeper cold into the circulation.

The outputs are likely to get a bit messy for a time as they  try to pull a lobe of high pressure to the nw. As this happens you want to see lower heights develop to the east that will mean some colder air is getting injected into the circulation.

Normally I'm not that optimistic about things and it takes a lot for me to chill out and not moan so my lack of moaning I hope gives cause for some optimism!

 

[snowice]

5 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Come on folks lets turn a page on some of the earlier gloom. Theres more things in our favour in terms of cold and snow than at anytime for the whole winter.

I can understand people might get a bit worried seeing the Scandi high flatten for a time but its important to think of that as the next chance to get some deeper cold into the circulation.

The outputs are likely to get a bit messy for a time as they  try to pull a lobe of high pressure to the nw. As this happens you want to see lower heights develop to the east that will mean some colder air is getting injected into the circulation.

Normally I'm not that optimistic about things and it takes a lot for me to chill out and not moan so my lack of moaning I hope gives cause for some optimism!

 

No shortwaves lol! great model watching ahead lets hope ECM is on the same page

[Mark Parsons]

8 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Pert 18 is probably one of the best structured Greenland highs you'll ever see

That's a Greenland high from the old days great to see..............

[Southender]

11 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Fairly sure these are coldest set of short ensembles to date (Central England)

Not to be sniffed at. 850's around -5c for about a week. Before a relaxing of the colder upper air towards the end. I would bet that will be temporary and still cold at the surface as well, before wave 2 kicks in either from the North or the East as we head into week 2/3 of Feb....

It could be cold, cloudy and dry yes. But, at least the cold is coming and with that at least we are in the bloody game with regards to snow chances. How many times do people have to say it....get the cold in first and lets see what crops up with regards to the white stuff we all crave.

Edited February 6, 2017 by Southender

[Frostbite1980]

I would also like to put a positive slant on things. When we were looking at the SSW all the comments were based on even if it does have an effect on the trop it could be the last 3rd of February that sees any cold response.......well it's only the 6th today and look at what we are facing.

Im not even saying this is to do with the SSW it may be just a bit of luck for a change but this is out of the blue and with the MJO plus a forecasted negative AO and the warming as well as very low sunspot activity (to name a few) this could just be the start of a long and at times very cold spell.

Even if it is a slow burner in terms of snow at least the ground will be nice and cold ready for any decent snow that may fall over the next few weeks :-)

All of this plus the Meto on side that this cold spell could last most of February is all very positive in my eyes.

[Snowyowl9]

Cold times coming bring on the easterly we`ve missed you.

http://.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.html

[TEITS]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

Well gfs12z has temps at night above zero by sat night for many so compared to the 6z ? If thats not a pretty big downgrade i dont know what is..added to that temps of 4 and 5 widely through saturday..

Sorry but this post is so misleading I simply had to reply. Have you considered that the 12Z temps on Saturday night might be due to cloud cover rather than a downgrade in the overall pattern and upper temps?