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Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
2 hours ago, Frosty. said:

To be honest I'm just looking forward to the cold this week rather than worrying what the models show at day 10 but I'm cautiously optimistic our weather will stay predominantly cold for the rest of Feb once it arrives from midweek.

Aye, Frosty...And the next few runs could be the difference between backflips down the high street and self-defenestration!:D 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Just before the 12z rolls out

The Ecm 00z ensemble mean looks impressive for coldies from midweek with a large blocking scandi high holding the atlantic well at bay and an increasingly very cold cutting Easterly flow with snow showers spreading from the north sea by thurs / fri and throughout the weekend but despite areas of rather cloudy weather, widespread sharp frosts too..into next week is more uncertain but it looks like staying blocked / cold and becoming largely fine with further frosty nights but still a risk of snow flurries to eastern counties. We could of course see upgrades longer term as its still an evolving pattern change but this week is certainly  going to be turning much colder from the east with a markedly increasing wind chill factor.:cold: 

I'm not seeing any signs of mild swly mush returning anytime soon!:D

 

Ps. Yes Ed it's exciting stuff..long may it continue

ECMAVGEU00_72_2.png

ECMAVGEU00_96_2.png

ECMAVGEU00_120_2.png

ECMAVGEU00_144_2.png

ECMAVGEU00_168_2.png

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Live Saarbruecken, Germany, work in Luxembourg
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy in Winter, Cold and Wet in Summer
  • Location: Live Saarbruecken, Germany, work in Luxembourg

A bit of newbie question, so apologies if a little off topic (thought best to get it in while it's quiet between runs).

Does what's being modeled at the moment show the kind of conditions where a Thames streamer like 2009's might occur?  If not, what needs to be different?

 

Many thanks.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea, South East Essex.
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea, South East Essex.
2 minutes ago, titchjuicy said:

A bit of newbie question, so apologies if a little off topic (thought best to get it in while it's quiet between runs).

Does what's being modeled at the moment show the kind of conditions where a Thames streamer like 2009's might occur?  If not, what needs to be different?

 

Many thanks.

 

Not really no.

The wind needs more of an EENE element to it and stronger. Plus pressure to be lower amongst other things. Perhaps things will look more favourable as we head into the cold spell. I for one am hoping we can squeeze a streamer event out over the next week or two.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
4 minutes ago, titchjuicy said:

A bit of newbie question, so apologies if a little off topic (thought best to get it in while it's quiet between runs).

Does what's being modeled at the moment show the kind of conditions where a Thames streamer like 2009's might occur?  If not, what needs to be different?

 

Many thanks.

 

Probably a  question better-asked in the SE&EA thread, mate? Hopefully, the mods will move it over...?:good:

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Posted
  • Location: Live Saarbruecken, Germany, work in Luxembourg
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy in Winter, Cold and Wet in Summer
  • Location: Live Saarbruecken, Germany, work in Luxembourg
4 minutes ago, Southender said:

Not really no.

The wind needs more of an EENE element to it and stronger. Plus pressure to be lower amongst other things. Perhaps things will look more favourable as we head into the cold spell. I for one am hoping we can squeeze a streamer event out over the next week or two.

Thanks :)

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

Cold pool significantly slower on the 12z compared to the 06z and a less favourable tilt to the Atlantic trough, looks more positive compared to the earlier neutral/slightly negative tilt. On the positive, the high seems slightly better orientated with more of an Easterly flow by T72.

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Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
3 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Cold pool significantly slower on the 12z compared to the 06z and a less favourable tilt to the Atlantic trough, looks more positive compared to the earlier neutral/slightly negative tilt. On the positive, the high seems slightly better orientated with more of an Easterly flow by T72.

I think a bit more energy went north on this run, so everything is slight further west again. 

GFS showing snow showers for the south east thou
gfs-2-78.png?12

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

Looking good in the Atlantic sector for some reinforcing WAA and ridge to be thrown toward Scandi again.

gfsnh-0-96.png?12

The more vertical/poleward we can get this from here the better off our cold and snow prospects continuing into FI.

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

Feel like there's going to be some unhappy people about this run! Lots of energy spilling over the top of the Azores ridging which itself is a lot more prominent than the 06z

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Posted
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Storms and Snow
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Not sure im liking this run scandy block further east, more energy in the northern arm!

It's actually better in the short term, better easterly track, more areas further south along the coast having a chance of snow. 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
1 minute ago, Weathizard said:

Feel like there's going to be some unhappy people about this run! Lots of energy spilling over the top of the Azores ridging which itself is a lot more prominent than the 06z

The Azores ridge can be friend or foe. If it ridges in at a lower latitude it plays spoiler but if it ridges in at higher latitude, toward Scandi, it can be a great help.

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Posted
  • Location: west yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: extreme weather
  • Location: west yorkshire

Some very confusing posts. Some say good run some say not great. Wouldn't it be better see the entire run from gfs12z first. 

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

Well at least we have agreement now between GFS and UKMO out to T96. Looking ok for cold, some wintry showers in the east, so as expected.

gfs-0-96.png

gfs-1-96.png

UW96-21.GIF

gfs-2-96.png

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

The commentary on this run reminds me of a Donovan song: first there is a downgrade, then then there is no downgrade, then there is?:D

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