Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..

[Luke Attwood]

7 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Ec strat also not going the split route as per GFS this morning 

not the best continuity from yesterday's 12z either

at least we now have agreement in the short term that chase the cold pool could be the weekend fixture - most excitement for several years! 

For several years ,you really think it will be that good!?

[bluearmy]

8 minutes ago, Luke Attwood said:

For several years ,you really think it will be that good!?

the chase - not the cold pool !

several years ? Well two at least and possibly three down here 

[Nick F]

Doesn't look overly exciting from a snowfall perspective late week and the weekend once the sub 0C dew points set in, probably grey for many with some flakes blowing around in the raw breeze. Though 00z EC does show a trough in the isobars / perhaps a front too bringing a more organised band of light/moderate snow to S England and S Wales early Sunday morning - BUT likely to change this far off

Could get some ice days out of the initial cold surge, Thursday and Friday most likely looking at 00z GFS 2m temps, perhaps slightly less cold air drawn in from SE after that for the weekend.

[Frosty.]

Hello scandi high, we have waited soo long progressively colder from the east looks certain!

[Connor Bailey Degnan]

If you're a cold fan, end of this week should be decent enough for you. However if you're a snow fan, and you like proper snow, not little grains, then they're isn't much to be excited about, at least in the short term. May be upgrades to come.

[northwestsnow]

Ecm mean suggests ANOTHER det at the milder end of ens.

[Midlands Ice Age]

3 hours ago, Chris.R said:

 For anyone interested, here's a  link to live tabular data from northern Europe sorted from East-West. might be interesting to monitor the extent of surface cold along with @Bring Back1962-63's daily temp/pressure watches. 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/maps/current?LANG=en&UP=0&R=310&TYP=wetter&ART=tabelle&LANG=en&DATE=1486360800&KEY=euro&LAND=euro&CONT=euro&SORT=1&SI=mph&CEL=C&UD=0

Chris ..

A great find... Thank you

MIA

[phil nw.]

A cold looking UK and GFS run this morning with the Azores high aiding further amplification of the Scandi high later on.

Day 5

What i like is that we now see some some upper cold pools getting under the block from the Siberian pv which should hold the block from sinking.Unfortunately ECM whilst close to the others up to day 5 is still not on the same page beyond.

Day 6

The main theme however is extensive blocking over Europe and the E.Atlantic which will help to retain a cold theme.

[Man With Beard]

GEFS/ECM ens still a little at odds at D10:

  

Both show SE flow and increase in heights towards Iceland. However, much more likely to get colder air from the east on GEFS - ECM seems to have much more Mediterranean influence. 

[doctor32]

Ecm op on the milder side of mean from day 6, not as wild as yesterdays 12z though

Edited February 6, 2017 by doctor32

[Summer Sun]

ECM Op is still on the warmer side of the mean but for a much shorter time than yesterday's 12z and nowhere near as crazy as last night

The GFS Op and Control are very much on the cold side of the mean for a good part of the run

Edited February 6, 2017 by Summer Sun

[Summer Sun]

A D7 the general idea this morning is for a southeasterly which GFS and ECM shows would be dry for most though a few showers popping up in the north

UKMO whilst also showing a southeasterly at  D7 has more precipitation so we'd have a higher chance of some fairly widespread snow in the north

 

Edited February 6, 2017 by Summer Sun

[Ice Day]

What a great start to the day, UKMO is excellent and the ECM has improved in the 96-144 time-frame.  But the gold award goes to the GFS who has produced one of the longest lasting cold runs I've seen, all the way through to 384:

192

228

276

324

384

Just some examples of how the run evolved.  Of course the later charts will fluctuate wildly no doubt, but this evolution is most certainly a possibility as we go through February.  Best model watching since 2013 if nothing else!

[festivalking]

21 minutes ago, Connor Bailey Degnan said:

If you're a cold fan, end of this week should be decent enough for you. However if you're a snow fan, and you like proper snow, not little grains, then they're isn't much to be excited about, at least in the short term. May be upgrades to come.

I've always believed get the cold air in first. Once established you never know what might turn up in the flow!

[Connor Bailey Degnan]

18 minutes ago, festivalking said:

I've always believed get the cold air in first. Once established you never know what might turn up in the flow!

Hope so mate

[northwestsnow]

For those worrying about snow or lack of snow its still to far out imo to know the distribution or intensity.

Winds look more easterly fri into sat i would not be suprised to see snow showers moving inland.mogreps for example must be seeing precip moving inland the bbc 5dayer for huddersfield shows snow showers fri night into sat and the updated text reflects that.

 

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Wednesday seems to be the day that the models are forecasting the airflow to switch around to the East. Next weekend's looking like a corker for multiple ice-days

[Frosty.]

I'm going to suggest the models have upgraded the cold potential compared to yesterday..anyone agree?

Looks like becoming very cold

[Summer Sun]

Temps really struggle over the next 2 weeks with many areas struggling to get above 2 or 3c once the cold air get's in place

[ptow]

8 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I'm going to suggest the models have upgraded the cold potential compared to yesterday..anyone agree?

Looks like becoming very cold

Its looking like a decent cold spell agreed. I wouldn't say very cold at this stage. 2/3 degs is just a standard cold spell imo. They type we used to get before the proper cold came in. Lets hope that happens, although we are running out of time.

[snowfish1]

23 minutes ago, Connor Bailey Degnan said:

Hope so mate

Has to be Connor, stands to reason that odds are (not always) that what falls from the sky once cold upper air temps establish themselves has to be of the white variety lol however as I think you have suggested, there Ian a great deal of precip shown on the GFS charts however that may improve nearer the time as streamers and fronts and the like become known and indeed fax charts 

Edited February 6, 2017 by snowfish1

[Met4Cast]

Early T48 GFS but already another 50 miles ish push Westwards. 

[snowray]

Incredible really, the cold pool is moving in a fraction more quickly on each run, Atlantic slightly further west once again. 

Lovely runs so far, lots to look forward to.

[Frosty.]

22 minutes ago, ptow said:

Its looking like a decent cold spell agreed. I wouldn't say very cold at this stage. 2/3 degs is just a standard cold spell imo. They type we used to get before the proper cold came in. Lets hope that happens, although we are running out of time.

Dare I say it could become colder than you are suggesting once the cold becomes entrenched? I'm thinking ice days, severe frosts and even snow for some of us.

Edited February 6, 2017 by Frosty.

[snowice]

EVERY RUN THE COLD  IS BEING PUSHED  WEST 50 MILES NOW AT 60hrs  MOVING ACROSS  ENGLAND.