Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..

[Mucka]

7 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Striking retrogressive anomaly by 264 hrs within the 0z GEFS suite

Yes GFS has been sniffing at a retrograde pattern for some time but now it is positively digging at the ground. Let's hope it uncovers a bone for coldies.

There are some exciting possibilities in FI for sure but some (primarily NE England) may see some light snow as early as Wednesday afternoon/evening.

GFS 00z ensembles. (NE England) The cold is slowly getting deeper and becoming more prolonged.

 

 

[Dennis]

a strong block with cold air

[That ECM]

Much better at t120 from ecm. Step in the right direction.

[Man With Beard]

T120: ECM follows UKMO ... ish. Still trying to sink the high from the top but has that cold pool over the UK too.

T144 will tell us more in a couple of minutes

[Man With Beard]

T144 ECM is a big leap towards GFS/UKMO for what is happening over the UK (cold pool, still cold enough for snow) but it is still trying to sink the Scandi block at the same time.

However, the Azores ridge now flies much much further north. Looks interesting! Can we trust the model considering all its swings, though?

[That ECM]

4 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

T120: ECM follows UKMO ... ish. Still trying to sink the high from the top but has that cold pool over the UK too.

T144 will tell us more in a couple of minutes

T144 is a good and just a slight variation on a theme. To be expected at this time scale but importantly the big 3 are on a similar page at last. 

[Iceberg]

At last very good gfs for length and both meto and ec have good cold out to t144. 

But crucially ec had far less and better energy flow and waa providing a shield far out in the Atlantic. 

At last high confidence that this isn't a few day cold spell and finally a week or more very cold spell 

Edited February 6, 2017 by Iceberg

[Weather-history]

ECM 500hpa anomaly chart. at 144hrs

Edited February 6, 2017 by Weather-history

[snowbunting]

1 minute ago, Weather-history said:

ECM 500hpa anomaly chart. at 144hrs

Thats one monster of a block.  Dry and cold and sunny for us in the Western Isle for a long time. March will be interesting. 

[Day 10]

Doesn't anyone in here sleep! I thought I was early checking the thread at 6.30! Looks like i've missed some upgrades. Cracking stuff from what I can see from my phone. Will view properly after work. Great start to the week 

[SMU]

Morning All

yet another steller UKMO - getting colder & better daily/ will update the 850s later

GFS great, however as astonishing as it is - ECM op totally all over the place !

S

[Man With Beard]

A much more scenic route from the ECM but still cuts off the deep cold in the end

[Weathizard]

Think we look to be converging on a cold high pressure scenario initially, not what most want but I'd be happy with that! Will be interesting to see the ECM ens as the GEFS show strong clustering towards a general warm up* in the medium term.

 

*would still feel bitter with winds from the east but a warm up uppers wise

Edited February 6, 2017 by Weathizard

[Iceberg]

Although ec is all over the place. I don't really believe any of the models have a good handle beyond the t144 cold pool. At least ec has dropped its frankly silly modelling Of a 75mb fall in pressure between Iceland and kara. The Atlantic is dead and lost its energy, so the outlook is cold. From t168-200, the models are increasingly hinting at possible retrogressing and the familiar sh - gh - sh of lengthy cold periods looks a decent bet. 

[That ECM]

Agreement in bigger picture upto t144. Then ecm wants to sink the high and gfs doesn't. We have no idea about ukmo. Would loved ecm to follow gfs but it hasn't so for now enjoy the initial cold and see what happens after that. 

Edited February 6, 2017 by That ECM

[smhouston]

1 hour ago, Mucka said:

Yes GFS has been sniffing at a retrograde pattern for some time but now it is positively digging at the ground. Let's hope it uncovers a bone for coldies.

There are some exciting possibilities in FI for sure but some (primarily NE England) may see some light snow as early as Wednesday afternoon/evening.

GFS 00z ensembles. (NE England) The cold is slowly getting deeper and becoming more prolonged.

 

 

GFS one of the colder ensembles, so you'd have to say currently it looks like briefly turning very cold to then cold

Need the ECM to come on board soon. It would be very surprising for it to be so wrong at this stage

[shane303]

Great set of models this morning a prolonged cold spell likely from Wednesday mostly dry but a few flurries. As the met office said yesterday a cold rest of February likely. 

[Duane S.]

For goodness sake. The ECM finally comes its senses ref. its D4/5 to D5/6 evolution and then completely loses the plot by quickly and aggressively sinking the high to our SE. 

Other than that, a top notch 00z suite!

[Kentspur]

41 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

Doesn't anyone in here sleep! I thought I was early checking the thread at 6.30! Looks like i've missed some upgrades. Cracking stuff from what I can see from my phone. Will view properly after work. Great start to the week 

Some of us start work at 4am lol

[Dennis]

the WINTER is still in progress -some very good signs to strenghten 

[Seasonality]

Just now, smhouston said:

GFS one of the colder ensembles, so you'd have to say currently it looks like briefly turning very cold to then cold

Need the ECM to come on board soon. It would be very surprising for it to be so wrong at this stage

Not this winter. ECM still king but the crown looks tarnished. FI very close for all models to be fair.

[Guest]

DAILY EUROPEAN TEMPERATURE AND PRESSURE CHECK No.4

GREAT NEWS - THE COLD POOL INTENSIFIES AND IS PUSHING DIRECTLY TOWARDS THE UK 

In the build up to this week’s cold spell, I feel that it will be useful to keep up-to-date with the current and trending temperature and pressure changes in Europe. I will try to produce these on a daily basis for the next few days. This will show how the pattern is evolving and monitor the extent and the severity of the cold that we might expect.

Now, I shall pick up from my last “check” on page 92. This took us to February 5th.

European Surface Temperature Charts:

                Current "live"                                  Feb 6th 0650                                   Feb 5th    1250                                  Feb 5th  0650                                  Feb 4th 1250  

    

Note that it is important to allow for min/max temps when comparing the charts. The 0650s are usually close to the minimums and the 1250s are usually close to the maximums.

COMMENT:   Wow! The is happening even more quickly than I was expecting. The area of deep cold (purple) over north-west Russia has intensified, expanded and is moving steadily south-westwards towards Europe. The area of light and darker blues has extended into central Europe.  All this can be seen by comparing the two "0650" and the two "1250" charts. Just watch the deep cold moving into north-east Europe during today and then further south-westwards over the next couple of days.

GFS  0z February 6th T+6 European Charts: 

                2m Surface Temps                                       850 Temps                                           500 hPa Temps

                      

COMMENT:   Compare today's charts (above) with yesterday's (below). The "purple" area of sub -20c surface temps has expanded and strongly intensified. There are now  sub -24c, sub -28c and sub -32c temps (white) showing in north-west Russia - this pool is spreading steadily south-westwards into northern Scandinavia and north-east Europe. The pool of sub -20c 850s has also moved steadily south-westwards. There has been a expansion of the sub -8c in Europe with a break away small pool of sub -12c over the Baltic Sea. This is all marching towards the UK with sub -4c just arriving on our east coast.- all the greens have disappeared. Notice the now perfect orientation of the whole pool aiming right at the UK. 

GFS 0z February 5th T+6 European Charts: 

                2m Surface Temps                                        850 Temps                                         500 hPa Temps

                       

European Surface Pressure Charts:

                 Current "live”                                    Feb 6th 0650                                   Feb 5th    1850                                   Feb 5th  0650                                 Feb 4th    1850    

         

  Current Met Office Fax: 0600 Feb 6th             GFS 0z February 6th T+6                      GFS 0z February 5th T+6                                        

                      

COMMENT:   There it is - our beautiful Scandinavian anticyclone!  Note how quickly it has intensified - currently (0730) 1043 mb and still rising steadily. It is also still slowly moving westwards. As I said yesterday, the LP to the south was already undercutting and supporting the HP block. The HP is taking on the perfect shape with its ridge towards us and the flow on its southern flank now backed from south-eastery to easterly. This pattern could not be any better.

Perhaps some of the more sceptical amongst you might now see that my very bullish slant in my full weekly report yesterday (on page 105) was completely justified. The charts above show that this cold spell is going to be something very special and is developing even more quickly than predicted.

 

Edited February 6, 2017 by Guest
Correcting typos and to ensure that all the links and charts work properly.

[Wilxy]

Up for work and a good start to the 00z suite GFS and UKMO going for same scenario whilst a better ECM this morning still winking heights towards Europe so it's far from consistent yet!

[Nick F]

GFS again has the best evolution compared to ECMWF that's keen to sink the high by day 10.

Surprised ECM is flip-flopping so much with the positioning of the block, given normally it's the most stable model and verifies better most the time in the medium range.

Given both GFS and ECM both take the MJO on a similar amplitude and timing through 7 and 8 - odd why the ECM is so keen to sink the high so hastily with energy going over the top rather than under as would be expected with these particular phases, though could be the lag time after reaching the phases. Can only think that it is because the sPV is forecast to rebound back to the pole after its displacement.

The GFS is still going for a sPV split from day 10ish, so perhaps that's why we are seeing more HLBing rather MLBing from its recent extended outputs.

Therefore, really difficult IMO to make any assumptions over where the block will go past day 7, though my gut feeling is GFS is more likely then EC, not because it'S what I want to see, but the state of the strat and MJO supports it.

 

 

Edited February 6, 2017 by Nick F

[bluearmy]

9 minutes ago, Nick F said:

GFS again has the best evolution compared to ECMWF that's keen to sink the high by day 10.

Surprised ECM is flip-flopping so much with the positioning of the block, given normally it's the most stable model and verifies better most the time in the medium range.

Given both GFS and ECM both take the MJO on a similar amplitude and timing through 7 and 8 - odd why the ECM is so keen to sink the high so hastily with energy going over the top rather than under as would be expected with these particular phases, though could be the lag time after reaching the phases. Can only think that it is because the sPV is forecast to rebound back to the pole after its displacement.

The GFS is still going for a sPV split from day 10ish, so perhaps that's why we are seeing more HLBing rather MLBing from its recent extended outputs.

Therefore, really difficult IMO to make any assumptions over where the block will go past day 7, though my gut feeling is GFS is more likely then EC, not because it what I want to see, but the state of the strat and MJO supports it.

 

 

Ec strat also not going the split route as per GFS this morning 

not the best continuity from yesterday's 12z either

at least we now have agreement in the short term that chase the cold pool could be the weekend fixture - most excitement for several years!