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Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
1 minute ago, Mucka said:

Around 2/3rds of GFS ensembles show a strong Atlantic block around day 12 - most of the others show some other form of blocking.

If that isn't an FI cold signal I don't know what is.

I posted the mean on the page behind a few mins back Mucka. It's very good indeed...as I expected it may well be.

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
3 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Around 2/3rds of GFS ensembles show a strong Atlantic block around day 12 - most of the others show some other form of blocking.

If that isn't an FI cold signal I don't know what is.

The 12z op was there later in the run so some signal there.

gfsnh-0-384.png?12

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

I posted the mean on the page behind a few mins back Mucka. It's very good indeed...as I expected it may well be.

It would be a surprise if Feb didn't come in quite well below average despite the tepid first week.

graphe6_1000_265_86___.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m
  • Weather Preferences: Snow/Thunderstorms
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m
2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

I posted the mean on the page behind a few mins back Mucka. It's very good indeed...as I expected it may well be.

The ECM mean at day 10 hints clearly some members show possible blocking to our N and NW , so maybe we will see upgrades to a second shot of cold later in the month.

Certainly would tie in with MJO moving into Phase 8.

EDH1-240.GIF?05-0

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
5 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Got the GEFS means at 10hpa at 312

gensnh-21-7-312.png

Cheers, I would like to see the heights, the temp charts are fine when you are looking at an initial over the top SSW as you already know the position of the vortex to start so you can guess by the warming where it / they have ended up, its different though when you've already had a displacement and then waiting for trop up split as there is only shallow temp differences.

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Cheers, I would like to see the heights, the temp charts are fine when you are looking at an initial over the top SSW as you already know the position of the vortex to start so you can guess by the warming where it / they have ended up, its different though when you've already had a displacement and then waiting for trop up split as there is only shallow temp differences.

Ok

just looked for srat hieght charts in google and came up with this,go to NH(northern hemisphere),click JFM>N and you should get this:D

time_pres_TEMP_MEAN_JFM_NH_2017.png

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/

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Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni

Very cold run for the next 2 months from the CFS 9month!

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=1254&mode=0&carte=0&run=0

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

Latest 12z jma is good at 264:D

J264-21.GIF?05-12J264-7.GIF?05-12

18z just out,the cold pool is expanding at 84 hrs compared to the 12z

J84-7.GIF?06-18J96-7.GIF?05-12

right,i am exhausted after tonights drama but the models are looking a bit better today regarding a colder outlook that looks nailed on now,we just need some disturbances in our vicinity to enhance some more heavier ppn of which should be snow within the next severn days and maybe beyond,remember that models will not pick out these little disturbancies until a lot closer to the time.

 

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.

00z time. Chilly weekend coming up. 

gfs-1-126.png

gfs-9-126.png

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

GFS 00z continuing trend from last nights ensembles with sharpening up the Atlantic trough, interesting.

gfsnh-0-144.png

Edited by Mucka
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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

Could see the Scandi high reinforced here...Azores high is merging at a more N'ly latitude and you can see a recurve of heights up towards Iceland and beyond

gfsnh-0-138.png

Mucka..snap! Saying the same thing in different ways...

Edited by CreweCold
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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

Lovely little cold pool slap bang over the UK at T144 on the UKMO 0z output;

UN144-21.thumb.gif.7621f1cfd82a7de9cb158cf19edb37ac.gif

That might pep up some snow potential for a lucky few.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

UKMO 144 no sign of a breakdown either and that blue blob over the SE may raise some discussion.

UN144-21.GIF

EDIT

Beat me to it AWD

 

GFS 192 huge block another cld pool heading West and where did the Atlantic go?

gfsnh-0-192.png

Edited by Mucka
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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
9 minutes ago, Mucka said:

UKMO 144 no sign of a breakdown either and that blue blob over the SE may raise some discussion.

UN144-21.GIF

EDIT

Beat me to it AWD

 

GFS 192 huge block another cld pool heading West and where did the Atlantic go?

gfsnh-0-192.png

Vortex wanting to shift down to the Siberian side as we enter FI beyond 200 hrs ish. Will we see the trend of the GEFS of recent manifest down the line? That is N Atlantic/Greenland heights.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
7 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Vortex wanting to shift down to the Siberian side as we enter FI beyond 200 hrs ish. Will we see the trend of the GEFS of recent manifest down the line? That is N Atlantic/Greenland heights.

It is definitely something to look for in the output but the trend is certainly for blocking to be maintained in one form or another.

GFS day 10 :cold:

gfs-1-240.png

Edited by Mucka
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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.

Monster cold pool by UK standards. 10 days out I know but lovely charts for cold fans. Really hangs around too. Nothing marginal there.

 

gfs-1-240 (1).png

gfs-1-264 (1).png

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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.

UKMO also on a theme of a wintry weekend. The chilly little feature over England will make the excellent experts of Exeter pay attention. But one for a watching brief this far out. 

UW144-21 (4).gif

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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.

850s in gif form. Nowt for coldies to complain about.

tempresult_dre5.gif

tempresult_yzg8.gif

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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

Massive upgrade on the 00z in pretty much all of the short, medium and long terms. Relentless easterlies all the way through. 

We manage to advect that more substantial Russian cold pool all the way to our shores, and then FI ends on a 4000 mile long easterly fetch right from the heart of Siberia! Retrogression of the scandi high is also being shown in this latest run too. Remarkable stuff!! 

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Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67

 For anyone interested, here's a  link to live tabular data from northern Europe sorted from East-West. might be interesting to monitor the extent of surface cold along with @Bring Back1962-63's daily temp/pressure watches. 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/maps/current?LANG=en&UP=0&R=310&TYP=wetter&ART=tabelle&LANG=en&DATE=1486360800&KEY=euro&LAND=euro&CONT=euro&SORT=1&SI=mph&CEL=C&UD=0

Edited by Chris.R
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

GFS has definitely sniffed out the sharpening of the trough giving more amplified Atlantic pattern upstream.

That makes runs like P12 below become possible in hi res output.

gensnh-12-1-144.pnggensnh-12-1-180.pnggensnh-12-0-174.png

That is a huge contrast to yesterday's ECM

 

ECH1-144.GIF?05-0

but I expect all change from it this morning.

Edited by Mucka
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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
8 minutes ago, Mucka said:

GFS has definitely sniffed out the sharpening of the trough giving more amplified Atlantic pattern upstream.

That makes runs like P12 below become possible in hi res output.

gensnh-12-1-144.pnggensnh-12-1-180.pnggensnh-12-0-174.png

That is a huge contrast to yesterday's ECM

 

ECH1-144.GIF?05-0

but I expect all change from it this morning.

Striking retrogressive anomaly by 264 hrs within the 0z GEFS suite

gensnh-21-5-264.png

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Posted
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m
27 minutes ago, Mucka said:

GFS has definitely sniffed out the sharpening of the trough giving more amplified Atlantic pattern upstream.

That makes runs like P12 below become possible in hi res output.

gensnh-12-1-144.pnggensnh-12-1-180.pnggensnh-12-0-174.png

That is a huge contrast to yesterday's ECM

 

ECH1-144.GIF?05-0

but I expect all change from it this morning.

 

Its shaping up very nicely now looking at the overnight GFS and UKMO, Looks like an easterly wind of sorts setting in on wednesday/thursday looks nailed on now. I honestly have just completly dismissed the ECM, without even seeing its esembles. It just looks way way off the mark. And not because it shows what I don't want to see lol

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