Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..


Paul

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Bishop Auckland, Durham NE
  • Location: Bishop Auckland, Durham NE

The easterly low is pushing the high from the west a lot further over than it was in the earlier 12z model..

12z

gfs-1-150.png?12

 

18z

gfs-1-144.png?18

 

Those -8 uppers are covering more and more of the uk......much higher snow precipitations too expected.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

gfs much better than the ecm at 144 hrs,shortwave coming out of denmark should enhance the ppn a tad.

gfs-0-144.png?18ECM1-144.GIF?05-0

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

It's definitely squeaky bum time watching the Azores ridge nudging in.....

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
Just now, chionomaniac said:

It's definitely squeaky bum time watching the Azores ridge nudging in.....

Yep, this is dancing with the devil for sure!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

More persistent snow moving in from our east along with the colder uppers, this would tie in with the UKMO T168 chart that was posted earlier.

gfs-1-162.png

gfs-2-162.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

Let's be brutally honest it's a primarily dry easterly and it is going to take a monumental turnaround for the majority of the country to be anything but that, at least with the first bite of the cherry!

Edited by Weathizard
  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
3 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

It's definitely squeaky bum time watching the Azores ridge nudging in.....

What it does do is make the ECM solution less far fetched. Let's just hope the ECM doesn't have this nailed and the 18z is as far as we push with the Azores high influence.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire
1 minute ago, Weathizard said:

Let's be brutally honest it's a primarily dry easterly and it is going to take a monumental turnaround for the majority of the country to be anything but that, at least with the first bite of the cherry!

Nope - it's still too early to be sure.

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

Height's  biulding in the Atlantic at 174hrs should play a good part further down the line.

gfs-0-174.png?18

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Storms and Snow
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Did I mention a stalled upper cold pool earlier... ? Fingers crossed...

 

What does the stalled upper cold pool do for the uk as a positive? Is it just colder and that's that? or does it have better implications down the line?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
5 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Did I mention a stalled upper cold pool earlier... ? Fingers crossed...

IMG_2365.thumb.PNG.5d3e08ccc67881337cd1e80d12397c89.PNG

It is a bit like time has stood still from around T+150 til T+198

Edited by chionomaniac
just increasing the time difference!
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Upper Tweeddale, Scottish Borders 240m ASL
  • Location: Upper Tweeddale, Scottish Borders 240m ASL

Not sure if this is being overly simplistic, but it looks to me that there is a classic difference between the Europeans and Amerians tonight:

ECM shows the Azores High stretching north east to join with the block to our NE

GFS shows the block to our NE stretching down to the south west to join the Azores High.

 

 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset

Completely different jet profile at the tipping point is keeping things decent here. The 18z retains more energy in the northern arm (normally a bad thing, looking like possibly not in this instance) than its 12z counterpart which split off way earlier than the 18z does.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex

Time for this to change tbh. small improvements in day 1-5 range but were still looking at more of a MLB in the medium term. Overall a slightly positive day I'd say. Maybe moved from a 4 out of 10 to a 6.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 minutes ago, Neilsouth said:

What does the stalled upper cold pool do for the uk as a positive? Is it just colder and that's that? or does it have better implications down the line?

Like the GEM it can gently keep throwing PPN around the flank into the UK- in the form of continuous snow- however it can also be the precursor of very cold surface temps as skies clear & the air is dead still- we are talking 0MPH ( again very rare )

- depends where it sets up!

  • Like 9
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Storms and Snow
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Like the GEM it can gently keep throwing PPN around the flank into the UK-...

Thanks for that Steve! 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

Height's ridging into iceland,could produce another easterly from here.

gfs-0-228.png?18

Edited by Allseasons-si
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
2 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Height's ridging into iceland,could produce another easterly here.

gfs-0-228.png?18

GFS looks like it's going to attempt a northerly here, probably with heights fairly close to out west. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

new FAX out, winds look a bit southerly though, so any flurries you'd expect to be in NE, coming SE/NW from the north sea

fax96s.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...