Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..

[chionomaniac]

Here is a tweet regarding the SSW and how it has a knock on effect on the MJO and tropical convection. Effectively it kick starts the MJO just as we are witnessing.

Thought this will interest @Tamara @Singularity and @nick sussex. Look at following tweets as well.

[Duane S.]

12 minutes ago, Singularity said:

If I'm reading that right, it's some way outside the spread of the ensembles which is some going!

One day we need an answer for what causes these wild operational runs. I've noticed a chain of such runs turn up at least once every few months for the past year or two.

Even though it seems a bit backwards, Isn't the fact it is in high resolution exactly why an op can go off on one in certain circumstances. Picks up on a wrong signal early on and exponentially goes awry thereafter. i.e. takes the baton and just runs with it, a path of no return

That said, if it is it is a signal the lo-res aren't going to see quite yet, sometimes its going to be a correct one...

[Summer Sun]

2 minutes ago, Luke Attwood said:

Wow even bigger cold pool heading our way,on the 18z

Not much difference so far

12z                                                              18z

[Dennis]

1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Foreign to me Den! looks like brain, eyes, animal!

hi its where the PolarVotex splits - its at 30-50km height lvl above the earth

[Wilxy]

48h and the Atlantic has been pushed further west again!

[snowray]

5 minutes ago, Luke Attwood said:

Wow even bigger cold pool heading our way,on the 18z

Yes lovely short term upgrades, 18z could be very good this evening...Cold air moving in more quickly again here.

[Summer Sun]

3 minutes ago, tomjwlx said:

48h and the Atlantic has been pushed further west again!

 

Not seeing much change so far

18z

12z

[Eskimo]

The only significant change I can see up to +60h is the fact that pressure builds slightly further north. 

[bluearmy]

7 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

Even though it seems a bit backwards, Isn't the fact it is in high resolution exactly why an op can go off on one in certain circumstances. Picks up on a wrong signal early on and exponentially goes awry thereafter. i.e. takes the baton and just runs with it, a path of no return

That said, if it is it is a signal the lo-res aren't going to see quite yet, sometimes its going to be a correct one...

Agree with this but quite frankly, this whole current modelling scenario has me confused. Maybe it's sitting high up on this fence. if ec op doesn't trend towards ukmo tomorrow (or vica versa) then I'm retiring from this malarkey! 

 

[mulzy]

1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

Not seeing much change so far

18z

12z

Not much change but the small changes could be significant going forward - Atlantic held back a little, Scandi high a touch further north, better alignment of the cold pool - small differences yes but still notable.

[Paul]

For those who may not have seen it, Nick's blog this evening is a good read - looking at how the Atlantic is set to run out of steam as the cold from the east takes over.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=news;storyid=7947;sess=

[SMU]

12 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Not seeing much change so far

18z

12z

You got to look at the macro detail

* Better onshore easterly flow 18z

* tip of WAA is another 50 miles west of Ireland ( notice the colours over iceland are lighter )

* weaker atlantic trough developing- expected to be further SW on this run making less impacts on the UK upper cold pool

s

[Catacol]

3 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

Here is a tweet regarding the SSW and how it has a knock on effect on the MJO and tropical convection. Effectively it kick starts the MJO just as we are witnessing.

Thought this will interest @Tamara @Singularity and @nick sussex. Look at following tweets as well.

Illustrating the interconnectedness of the whole climate system. In the context of discussion in other threads regarding loss of arctic ice, impact of the strat of energy release and impact on WAA into the arctic causing yet more energy into the region and yet more impact on the strat - its all rather worrying. Not so bad for the UK in times of low solar, but the next time we get a solar spike one has to wonder how bad the atlantic storms and flood risk will become.

 

MJO certainly heading for phase 8. Decent orbit - so as Tamara suggested earlier any suggestion of the northern arm squashing the block as on the ECM op tonight needs to be looked at suspiciously. At T66 GFS18z shows ongoing trend for a swifter withdrawal of the azores high influence than previous runs including the 12z. Gotta go do some work - but happy with the trend.

[Summer Sun]

Increasing chance of snow in the east by Thursday

[Eskimo]

Atlantic around 50 miles further west, subsequently the high pressure extending 50 miles further west as well. Pressure over scandinavia also significantly stronger by +90h. 

[snowice]

5 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

You got to look at the macro detail

* Better onshore easterly flow 18z

* tip of WAA is another 50 miles west of Ireland ( notice the colours over iceland are lighter )

* weaker atlantic trough developing- expected to be further SW on this run making less impacts on the UK upper cold pool

s

AT 84HRS you can see the push back from Ireland Summer Sun needs to take his shades of lol. 

[damianslaw]

In the very short term, don't be surprised to see tomorrows, front make slower progress eastwards, indeed it may easily stall over eastern britain and never clear the coast as the scandi high pushes against it with quick force.

[Allseasons-Si]

29 minutes ago, shane303 said:

Latest tweet from met office 

That says all we need to know,if the meto are on board,then we are looking good

[Met4Cast]

1 minute ago, damianslaw said:

In the very short term, don't be surprised to see tomorrows, front make slower progress eastwards, indeed it may easily stall over eastern britain and never clear the coast as the scandi high pushes against it with quick force.

 

Could be a possible snow event for Eastern parts if the front manages to hold up long enough for the colder air to undercut it. But, probably not very likely. 

It's the subtle upgrades that we need to look for, we're not going to see a massive jump to a beasterly but small upgrades run by run will improve things down the line. I'd expect the ECM to stop playing silly and backtrack tomorrow morning.

[Dennis]

winter will be stronger 

[Duane S.]

Looks like the energy is clearing quicker on this run, should be a good thing.

[Allseasons-Si]

6 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

Looks like the energy is clearing quicker on this run, should be a good thing.

I don't know s4lancia,looks like the azures high is ridging in more over the top,we shall see.

-8's coming back in at 138.

Edited February 5, 2017 by Allseasons-si

[Duane S.]

1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

I don't know s4lancia,looks like the azures high is ridging in more over the top,we shall see.

I think the AH ridging in like this is going to be a strong possibility, the ECM just made a pigs ear of it. Transient higher uppers may well occur if so.

[Cheshire Freeze]

4 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

I don't know s4lancia,looks like the azures high is ridging in more over the top,we shall see.

Yep...my thoughts aswell. When that happens- more jet over the top as is happening by 132 hrs

Remember, that Iberian low clearing quicker isn't always necessarily better in instances like these as it was encouraging the jet to head further SE. If we're not careful, that whacky ECM run won't seem so whacky. You walk a tightrope when the Azores high starts to muscle in on the equation...can be a help but also a hindrance.

Edited February 5, 2017 by CreweCold

[Wilxy]

Nope!