Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..


Paul

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
9 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

London and Aberdeen ECM ens show the Op is clearly on the warm side

Aberdeen                                                    London

graphe_ens3_php.thumb.png.0521fb9b444dc50f88f54b397ad81756.png65464.thumb.png.cb9c45831c2a3ae4e08f69e6cd13cd02.png

Doesn't mean that it is wrong though, especially given it's higher resolution.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset

Ref the EC Ens...Absolutely conclusive. And ties in exactly with my earlier thoughts of when it all goes wrong.

D5 is sat near the bottom in terms of temps and it manages, incredibly, to go from there to a massive outlier in just one day! That is some going and I don't think so.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Netherlands
  • Location: Netherlands

This is a plume of Leeuwarden, in the north of the Netherlands. Obviously the EC oper is on the warm side from next weekend on. And the other is the dewpoint of de Bilt. 

212201754736.png

Knipsel.PNG

Edited by sebastiaan1973
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Jetstream profile forecast would back up those models showing the high remaining robust and more northerly positioned. More energy in the southern arm than the northern arm, helping to prop it up, really can't see how the high would sink quickly as ECM is showing - its possibly having a very off day, but equally might be right (I very much doubt it though). UKMO showing a strong easterly through into the weekend, most bullish, and its verification rates have been very good this winter so far, also met office forecast indicates the high won't be going anywhere in a hurry.

 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
16 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Doesn't mean that it is wrong though, especially given it's higher resolution.

True. But would you trust a madly cold outlier run? I suspect like me you'd be very suspicious. Wait to see if it becomes a continuing theme.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

Some deep cold heralded by gfs moving in from the east by Thursday. This week will see problematic problems with forecasting, rain to the west of the uk  will be a problem for the models as cold air is flooding in from the east...:sorry:Surprise snowfall is likely for some:yahoo:

lodges.png

post-5986-0-96303900-1439491213.gif

tumblr_nfjlxiKuGS1t1nar6o1_500.gif

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

I thought it was your site lol

 

anyways...

UKMO 850s @120 - widespread -10 over the north, moderate -5 to the south

 

IMG_2361.PNG

To go with that the majority of the UK below 4ºC with a possible ice day for some

589796ac04ddc_W10T2_EUROPA_120-1.thumb.png.fddf2f000f057198568e9b322c519c07.png

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

You an clearly see with the wind directions and dew points just how little support the ECM run has, even though it seems less wild just looking at the temps but these give us an indication of the synoptics.

dewp.thumb.png.5b66923452ccb4e606820fb93e7a39d3.pngwind.thumb.png.05bfbac16102a27f4da8e5194e622518.png

 

This suggests even if high pressure sinks theres unlikely to be a surge of air from the sw into the high and the high is likely to remain sufficiently north to keep an easterly flow for De Bilt to day ten.

 

 

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
40 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

London and Aberdeen ECM ens show the Op is clearly on the warm side

Aberdeen                                                    London

graphe_ens3_php.thumb.png.0521fb9b444dc50f88f54b397ad81756.png65464.thumb.png.cb9c45831c2a3ae4e08f69e6cd13cd02.png

If I'm reading that right, it's some way outside the spread of the ensembles which is some going!

One day we need an answer for what causes these wild operational runs. I've noticed a chain of such runs turn up at least once every few months for the past year or two.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
3 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

IMG_6126.thumb.PNG.99e882543f5553921f274c064d4f941d.PNG

 

So if I'm looking at the right ECM op is too warm GEM Op is too cold EPS mean is for a steady rise to around +2 mid month?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...