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Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: South Petherton 41 metres (134 feet)
  • Location: South Petherton 41 metres (134 feet)

ECM is almost certainly a outlier as most other models signal cold 

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Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
7 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Maybe you missed yesterday post- in this evolution its been awful proved by all 3 models for 5 days...

UKMO leading the way - however yes we cant write it totally off..

Its ironic that at the end of December ECM was going for the Easterly and UKMO was having none of it and proved correct. My Money is on UKMO from what I've seen last few months. 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Come on peeps, it's one run from one model?? I know that the ECM is the beez-neez; but, at this juncture, chucking all our toys out the pram might be 'just a tad' premature?:cc_confused:

Edited by Ed Stone
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Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
1 minute ago, shane303 said:

ECM is almost certainly a outlier as most other models signal cold 

Any model run that is first to pick up on a trend is always initially an outlier.

Doesn't mean its wrong..... but let's hope on this occasion it is....

Though I do confess to have that feeling in the pit of my stomach..... 

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
6 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Let's enjoy the cold from midweek, again there is too much knee jerking going on as the models are still getting to grips with the strengthening scandi blocking high..chill out!:cold:

Every time the models start showing blocking, it's almost expected now...they struggle to gets to grips with it!!!

Guys do what the forecast is showing in the very near.... CHILL :cold:

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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, freezes, bitterly cold and icy. Thunderstorms and heatwaves!
  • Location: Lincolnshire

The ecm tonight is beyond bad for snow lovers. It's that bad it reminds me of December 2015, just a dry version 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Just now, Stu_London said:

Shocker of an ECM for cold lovers.

Could be on the golf course sooner than I thought if it were to verify

 

This is the same reaction as the 00z but how is it shocking for cold lovers when wed, thurs, fri, and sat look cold / very cold with frosty conditions and snow flurries in the east?

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19 minutes ago, Stephen W said:

Hi Steve,

Always enjoy reading your analysis. Surely though ECMWF is picking up on something so can't be completely discounted? I thought ECMWF was better for modelling of scandi heights? It has more energy in the northern arm of the jet which results in the high sinking.  It's out of synch with other models yes but until they all come on board, it must be taken seriously? We've all been here before so we surely do need to see the ECMWF align before we get too excited at 144 and beyond..?

Yep I did add that in my post that it 'could' be correct- there has never been many instances of UKMO calling deep cold easterly & the ECM going off the rails has varified..

ECM has been playing catch up to UKMO every day !

Chances of ECM 15%

Edit

JMA has the stalled / slow rolling upper cold pool as well

IMG_2353.thumb.PNG.921887664639db74eb91b04e93b34909.PNG

Edited by Steve Murr
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Posted
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL

+8 uppers into London at 216h so lets see how much support it has later!

ECM0-216.GIF?05-0

Can't be discounted but seems quite extreme when most background signals point to a colder theme especially later in the month.

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

J168-21.GIF?05-12 J192-21.GIF?05-12

For what it's worth, JMA shows how I think things should pan out if we see the clean cut-off low outcome with the jet riding over the block; yes there's a notable flow but it's less organised with a much flatter and stretched out trough heading toward Siberia and chances of a trailing front disrupting against the block.

As mused earlier, I really do wonder if ECM gets carried away with LP development when large temperature gradients are involved. This suspicion has grown slowly but surely over recent years.

If in some hellish reality we do see something like the ECM 12z unfold, then meteorological theory will have taken a nasty blow as a quite high amplitude phase 7 MJO will have had nothing like the expected level of impact. We'll also be looking for our resident block to retrogress and usher in a northerly as that's the route that a phase 8 MJO would inspire.

I am literally shuddering after that ECM run. How very dare it :laugh:

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Posted
  • Location: South Petherton 41 metres (134 feet)
  • Location: South Petherton 41 metres (134 feet)

ECM is a outlier I'm certain and even if it's not that set up would bring very cold nights with frost and fog bringing down day temperatures if sky's are clear. 

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Posted
  • Location: Wellingborough
  • Weather Preferences: snow
  • Location: Wellingborough

gfsnh-0-144.png?12ECH1-144.GIF?05-0UN144-21.GIF?05-18

ECM definitely on its own here at 144...  only model to build heights over central europe and sink the scandi High.

Agreed a very painful run.Its possible, but my no mens a certainty. Still odds on for cold IMO.

 

Edited by Zakos
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Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
5 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

This is the same reaction as the 00z but how is it shocking for cold lovers when wed, thurs, fri, and sat look cold / very cold with frosty conditions and snow flurries in the east?

I'd be quite surprised is +8C uppers verified - even if they did it still might be chilly at the surface. 

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

There is a lot of moaning going on in here,isn't there a thread for that!!

and to moan over +168 hr charts is rediculous.

haven't some folk learned anything in here,stick to the reliable timeframes less than 144 and you will be more comfortable:D

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
1 minute ago, tomjwlx said:

+8 uppers into London at 216h so lets see how much support it has later!

ECM0-216.GIF?05-0

Can't be discounted but seems quite extreme when most background signals point to a colder theme especially later in the month.

That's exactly it. Its take on pumping higher uppers through us during that period (unfortunately) may not be too far off the mark IMO but... ending up with an outcome quite as poor the the ECMWF 12z would have us believe, I just don't buy it.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Marton
  • Location: Marton

Today I've seen 3 good ops are 3 not so good. All to play for still. Hopefully the 6z can follow the route of the very cold scenario. Latest ECM looks like a outlier to me personally. 

Edit: 6pm z I meant.

Edited by Matthew Wilson
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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

The fact is we don't know how the ukmo would progress after the chart below. If you look at t120 for the ecm would you guess t144 would be as shown. We will have to wait and see.

IMG_8388.PNG

IMG_8389.PNG

IMG_8390.PNG

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
16 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Has anyone posted the UKMO day 7 chart yet - it's nice at 144 but you can't really see if it goes pear shaped in the next key day!!

If the ECM lies in the middle of the EPS I'd be concerned but not so just yet. However it is plausible, and est not write it off. The good thing now is that the METO wording sounds nothing like the ECM next weekend.

2

Hi Ali UKMO extended updates around 07:20 and 19:20 give or take

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Posted
  • Location: Runcorn
  • Location: Runcorn

The ECM isn't first to go with a swift breakdown, the possibility has been suggested/hinted at on previous runs, as for background well they didn't end counting for much in December 2012.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
2 minutes ago, Stu_London said:

I'd be quite surprised is +8C uppers verified - even if they did it still might be chilly at the surface. 

It's unfortunate that every run is taken as gospel, I'm still very encouraged..wait for the Ecm 12z ensemble mean to give a better idea, it was very good this morning despite the op.

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

Very good fax chart this evening +T72, cold upper getting in pretty well nicely there. Its become obvious t o me that the models are not coping very well at the moment with non zonal type weather, maybe time to start looking shorter term, UKMO and the fax charts will be on the ball as they have been all winter. 

 

Also, I did want to say anything before but ECM highlights that we need to bank our wave 1, because waves 2, 3, or 4 might never happen. Many times I have heard posters say we need to be patient, or its taking the long route, I personally think that the quickest route to cold is the best one. 

fax72s.gif

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