Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..

[Summer Sun]

Big differences on the short term ens between London and Aberdeen

London

Aberdeen

[SMU]

Well, here would be my observations for the evolution from this afternoons suite 

* Forecast blend - Aperge / GEM blend

* Runs dismissed - GFS / UKMO

- reasons

Aperge & GEM are bringing lower heights to the east of the UK & not lifting them out with a SE flow - keeping low pressure well to the SW- this looks spot on to me. Cold pool circa -10 lingering for longer than projected in other suites a la GEM.

GFS dismissed- to much deepening of atlantic trough @ 120 allowing increased surface SE flow across england in the mid term lifting the cold out- the angle of SE will I think be wrong, future runs expected to sharpen up the trough leaving a more Easterly flow over the UK

UKMO only dismissed due to heights being to high to our east & perhaps to much of an ESE flow - but a lot closer to Aperge/GEM blend than GFS

I dont usually follow the GEM however by luck or judgement I think its spot on this time with the emphasis on a stalled out cold pool 'somewhere over the UK or close over holland' hols a lot of credibilty due to the heights building in situ over the top between 144 -180

Lets hope ECM poor form over the last 5 days is rectified this eve....

S

 

[Summer Sun]

GFS Op (black line) on the cold side of the mean again from around the 14th

Edited February 5, 2017 by Summer Sun

[Methuselah]

6 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Well, here would be my observations for the evolution from this afternoons suite 

* Forecast blend - Aperge / GEM blend

* Runs dismissed - GFS / UKMO

- reasons

Aperge & GEM are bringing lower heights to the east of the UK & not lifting them out with a SE flow - keeping low pressure well to the SW- this looks spot on to me. Cold pool circa -10 lingering for longer than projected in other suites a la GEM.

GFS dismissed- to much deepening of atlantic trough @ 120 allowing increased surface SE flow across england in the mid term lifting the cold out- the angle of SE will I think be wrong, future runs expected to sharpen up the trough leaving a more Easterly flow over the UK

UKMO only dismissed due to heights being to high to our east & perhaps to much of an ESE flow - but a lot closer to Aperge/GEM blend than GFS

I dont usually follow the GEM however by luck or judgement I think its spot on this time with the emphasis on a stalled out cold pool 'somewhere over the UK or close over holland' hols a lot of credibilty due to the heights building in situ over the top between 144 -180

Lets hope ECM poor form over the last 5 days is rectified this eve....

S

 

I'll think I'll go one better, Steve, and 'dismiss' them all: IMO, no one model has ever got a 10-Day forecast absolutely right; they are for guidance and not for specifics?

Edited February 5, 2017 by Ed Stone

[SMU]

11 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I'll think I'll go better, Steve, and 'dismiss' them all: IMO, no one model has ever got a 10-Day forecast absolutely right; they are for guidance and not for specifics?

I am referring to the evolutions between 72 & 144 -

NAVGEM also goes for stalled out cold pool- which is very rare

[shaky]

3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

I am referring to the evolutions between 72 & 144 -

NAVGEM also goes for stalled out cold pool- which is very rare

Steve anything on the ecm yet lol!!!am too nervous to look!!

[SMU]

14 minutes ago, shaky said:

Steve anything on the ecm yet lol!!!am too nervous to look!!

Yep -6 into SE @ 72 with -10 over the NE (hull)

slightly less widespread than GFS although atlantic held well back- should mean the trough will slide as expected without to much fuss !

Edited February 5, 2017 by Steve Murr

[Matthew.]

Looking forward to the ECM! Let's hope we get a tilt like this

[Singularity]

Definitely some signs that a disturbance will develop near or over Holland in around 5 days time - this being under the cleaner trough disruption scenario that all but GFS are playing with.

Westward movement of it less clear-cut but with that low near or over Portugal you'd think it was pretty likely.

[chicken soup]

5 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Yep -6 into SE @ 72 with -10 over the NE (hull)

slightly less widespread than GFS although atlantic held well back- should mean the trough will slide as expected without to much fuss !

Would it not be better for the Atlantic to nudge in a bit and Stall in the cold air to provide some snow...or am I talking through my rear again...lol

Edited February 5, 2017 by chicken soup

[SMU]

& there we go - goodbye atlantic trough-

widespread -7c @850 across the Uk

[SMU]

12 minutes ago, chicken soup said:

Would it not be better for the Atlantic to nudge in a bit and Stall in the cold air to provide some snow.

No because theres not enough cold to the SE in the near continent ahead of it - so not on this occasion- 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

flurries look possible (west) covering (east)

[Midlands Ice Age]

8 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

& there we go - goodbye atlantic trough-

widespread -7c @850 across the Uk

Steve..

Isn't the Scandi high expanding?

Definitely northwards, but more worringly (?)  southwards as well.

MIA 

Edit - we need it to sneak into the gap( around Iceland)  left by the dropping low in the Atlantic. 

Edited February 5, 2017 by Midlands Ice Age

[Connor Bailey Degnan]

Ecm 120hrs very dry. Maybe the odd snow grain in a few spots.

[January Snowstorm]

Well its looking v like a classic 80s type easterly now...

Uppers are nothing exceptional but with low dew points should be cold enough for any ppn to be of snow.

We are on the cusp of a very cold spell whether it will give snow isn't certain 

[Banbury]

1 minute ago, Connor Bailey Degnan said:

Ecm 120hrs very dry. Maybe the odd snow grain in a few spots.

Impossible to say at this range

[Snowman.]

ECM says no and continues in a theme similar to it's 0z output.

Personally not buying it unless the UKMO jumps on board, but UKMO is having none of what the ECM is offering. 

UKMO for comparison, UKMO amplifies. ECM flattens. 

Edited February 5, 2017 by SN0WM4N

[January Snowstorm]

Ecm at 144hrs is poor enough.

Surface cold but decent uppers have evaporated 

[SMU]

& thats where we leave the ECM tonight - Just the same as the last 5 days to much forward energy @ day 6....

 

[shane303]

so an interesting week coming up with cold air for most of us by later Wednesday. A lot of cloud with some snow showers along the east coast which may spread west at times and the models show a good chance of the blocked cold weather lasting for the rest of February not bad at all. 

[Connor Bailey Degnan]

Ecm is absolutely dreadful for anyone wanting snow tonight. Wonder where it sits within its ens later. Mild outlier? Or a new trend?

[Allseasons-Si]

Just now, January Snowstorm said:

Ecm at 144hrs is poor enough.

Surface cold but decent uppers have evaporated 

Compared to this mornings 168 hr i don't think so

[Captain Shortwave]

The ECM continues to frustrate and it involves that Scandinavian cold pool.

      

It gets picked up by the northern arm of the jet and flattens the high somewhat, a lot more so than the other output. It's stubbornness with the track is a little worrying though this won't be resolved until mid-week anyway. The other models tend to not eject this to our north or at the very least retain some cold air near the UK.

Edited February 5, 2017 by Captain Shortwave

[Frosty.]

Ecm 12z upgrade, it looks colder than the 00z later in the week!looking forward to this, hopefully we will see snow showers from the north sea too!