Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

The UKMO is a stonker for Central and Southern England, a curve in the isobars and -9c uppers, snowfall I would imagine.

A 'bump' in the isobars is  just what I want to see: wind backs NE, snow showers merge into longer spells of loveliness, at least, and more cold air will follow...Unless it's the dreaded freezing-drizzle of course - as occurred following the 1979 and '87 snowfalls?

[Captain Shortwave]

The second half of this week onwards looks to be a real nightmare to forecast, you could probably not even be able to get a reliable forecast even at 48 hours out looking at how the cold pool could interact with various other players. A big snow event could crop up if these cold pools move in a favourable manner or we could end up mostly dry with a few flurries. A fascinating and potentially frustrating week ahead by the looks of it.

Just a couple of charts of winners

UKMO

   

Snow showers in the north east to start, possibly becoming more persistent and become more focused in the south.

GEM

    

A slow moving band of snow could move in from the continent, some very cold air sitting over Holland.

There isn't really any consistency in the modelling of that cold air after it moves towards Scandinavia initially, I am feeling like we will be pulling the one armed bandit with every operational here to see whether we get a hit.

 

Edited February 5, 2017 by Captain Shortwave

[Summer Sun]

Bitterly cold air building just over the channel -11's in the SE

Edited February 5, 2017 by Summer Sun

[Duane S.]

GEM looking interesting @ +150.

Azores High played its part early on sending a bout of WAA to help reinforce our blocking high. This is one scenario where increased energy in the Northern arm (initially at least) could well help us here

[Banbury]

3 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

High pressure is just too close by no matter what we seem to do! IMO a slightly disappointing 12z after this mornings effort.

Really?

The theme is STILL very much the same

Just how high some peoples expectations are

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

A 'bump' in the isobars is  just what I want to see: wind backs NE, snow showers merge into longer spells of loveliness, at least, and more cold air will follow...Unless it's the dreaded freezing-drizzle of course - as occurred following the 1979 and '87 snowfalls?

How the hell did you only get freezing rain in 1987???   -    The uppers were -15c in your neck of the woods.

[Duane S.]

4 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

High pressure is just too close by no matter what we seem to do! IMO a slightly disappointing 12z after this mornings effort.

Seriously...  Is this just to get a reaction? Well, it's worked I guess.

[Tim Bland]

GEM and UKMO illustrate why the MO added this line to their long range update :

'some snow showers are likely to affect the east and northeast. There is just a small chance of these becoming heavy and spreading to central and some western areas this weekend. "

[chicken soup]

3 minutes ago, Buzz said:

How many times must we repeat the following: get the cold in first then wait for snow in favourable locations ..... remember also that various "features" often pop up at extremely short notice, expecting those to appear on model about 5 days hence is utterly futile. So to summarise: COLD first then maybe SNOW. Okay?

The most annoying phrase and cliché out of all the annoying phrases and clichés on this forum..countless times we have had the cold in and countless times the snow hasn't come.

[Luke Attwood]

1 minute ago, s4lancia said:

Seriously...  Is this just to get a reaction? Well, it's worked I guess.

I kind of agree with him, ii have bad feeling about this the uppers are not cold over next weekend. Would it still be cold at the surface?

[AWD]

Just now, chicken soup said:

The most annoying phrase and cliché out of all the annoying phrases and clichés on this forum..countless times we have had the cold in and countless times the snow hasn't come.

But how many times has it not been cold & the snow has come?

[SMU]

GEM has that stalled out shortwave in the almost optimium position- !!

A SUPER block developing in the atlantic !!

[Banbury]

1 minute ago, Luke Attwood said:

I kind of agree with him, ii have bad feeling about this the uppers are not cold over next weekend. Would it still be cold at the surface?

Weathizard is commenting on the 12z's , clearly ignoring the UKMO 144 which is a peach if you want snow.

I think you must be commenting on GFS

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, chicken soup said:

The most annoying phrase and cliché out of all the annoying phrases and clichés on this forum..countless times we have had the cold in and countless times the snow hasn't come.

This time looks different, first proper Easterly flow with snow flurries / snow showers potential feeding in off the north sea..momentum is with the coldies for a change

[Summer Sun]

High pressure having more of an influence on this run

12z bitterly cold

06z cold but the 12z is much colder

[Wilxy]

GFS isn't even bad look at how stubborn it is in keeping the easterly going even when there is energy going over the top good trend!

[Duane S.]

Just now, chicken soup said:

The most annoying phrase and cliché out of all the annoying phrases and clichés on this forum..countless times we have had the cold in and countless times the snow hasn't come.

But, as frustrating as it may be to you, unless you live at altitude, 9 out of 10 times, the snow isn't going to arrive without the cold in. That's just how it works. That doesn't mean that the snow necessarily always follows the cold of course...

[Ice Day]

Meanwhile back on the GFS we're under attack from the north east.  Very cold uppers once again over us.

Most of England and Wales under -9's

Edited February 5, 2017 by Ice Day

[Ali1977]

A great set of 12z, lets hope an upshift in the amount of cold ENS members then a great ECM.  The METO are nearly off the fence now so that should give confidence - this could turn out extremely well for Feb - especially as the further we go the more chance of some bigger forces helping us out and I don't mean Yoda!!

[Duane S.]

3 minutes ago, Luke Attwood said:

I kind of agree with him, ii have bad feeling about this the uppers are not cold over next weekend. Would it still be cold at the surface?

Patience. Unlikely some Northerlies, the onset of Easterlies NEVER EVER follow a straightforward non-nerve-shredding evolution. We are at the end of the line, it has and will ALWAYS be this way.

In answer to your question, yes it will very likely be cold at the surface by then.

[danm]

6 minutes ago, chicken soup said:

The most annoying phrase and cliché out of all the annoying phrases and clichés on this forum..countless times we have had the cold in and countless times the snow hasn't come.

It may be a cliche but is a good rule to follow.

the point people make when they say this is snow events are difficult to forecast more than a couple of days in advance, so most people on here look for a synoptically  cold set up to develop that increases the chances of snow. Once you have this set up in place, such as an easterly or a northerly, the more likely it is that snow events will crop up - be that connective snow showers or battleground snow events.

[Methuselah]

8 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

How the hell did you only get freezing rain in 1987???   -    The uppers were -15c in your neck of the woods.

Must have been a layer of warmer air? I was sledging in Olney, the day after the blizzard, and there was a mixture of drizzle & snow grains, at a temp of c. -5C; I have witnessed similar things following snow/blizzards, before: Feb 1976 and Feb 1979, for instance...Something relating to the North Sea, perhaps?

[Weathizard]

14 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

Seriously...  Is this just to get a reaction? Well, it's worked I guess.

What? High pressure is far too close for the majority of the UK on the 12z when the uppers are at the coldest, like I said comparably to the 6z high pressure is having far more of an influence. Very strange reaction by yourself? I didn't say it was a bad run.

Edited February 5, 2017 by Weathizard

[Luke Attwood]

5 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

Patience. Unlikely some Northerlies, the onset of Easterlies NEVER EVER follow a straightforward non-nerve-shredding evolution. We are at the end of the line, it has and will ALWAYS be this way.

In answer to your question, yes it will very likely be cold at the surface by then.

Very cold even with not cold uppers?

[Banbury]

3 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

What? High pressure is far too close for the majority of the UK on the 12z when the uppers are at the coldest, like I said comparably to the 6z high pressure is having far more of an influence. Very strange reaction by yourself? I didn't say it was a bad run.

So are you saying the UKMO 144 12z is dry and no snow potential or are you commenting on the GFS