Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..

[Gustywind]

3 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Can't believe what I'm seeing. At 72 hours out, it seems as if the conclusion has been made as if it has already happened  judging by some posts. 

72+ hours is a long time with these types of scenarios. It's only by a fine margin that we are missing out on -8 uppers crossing from Denmark and Norway. 

Who's to say that we won't get frontal snowfall encroaching from the west and southwest too at some point. Still opportunities for some at least to see a little bit of snowfall out of this. Watching how things develop now and how the heights currently behave over the Mediterranean will have implications massively on the next 3-5 days. Let's just watch it unfold! 

All the major models reflect this though and have been fairly consistent on this point for the last 24-48 hours. Think we'd struggle to get any frontal snowfall as the uppers are so poor.

[Singularity]

Surprised not to see the further holding up of the Atlantic by GFS and low dropping down through the UK with wintry results being mentioned. That's progress right there.

Yes ECM is a bit dreary but it's so aggressive with moving LP to the NE from the mid-Atlantic that it seems unreasonable given the MJO forcing - and even this run shows the NE flow breaking down on day 10 with signs a low may stall in out west and allow the block to start recovering some latitude.

Perspective...

Edited February 5, 2017 by Singularity

[JamesL]

1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

Morning

A lot of ECM lemmings here this morning -perhaps many missed last nights post showing that it has been terrible in the last 5 days - classic really in being over progressive...

let things develop- every day as things have got closer the uppers have got modelled  colder - even the ECM has a pool of -9 air pushing SW into wales & the NW at day 5-6 yet people worried about day 8/9/10

so much flapping on here this morning the forums going to take off...

Hear hear Steve. I said in my post yesterday that I'm not really bothering about anything post 96-120h as the details are firming up every run. 

We now have a Scandi high, let's see how it evolves. Fascinating viewing for me anyway even if everyone else looking way ahead in la la land 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

3 minutes ago, Gustywind said:

All the major models reflect this though and have been fairly consistent on this point for the last 24-48 hours. Think we'd struggle to get any frontal snowfall as the uppers are so poor.

You don't necessarily need impressive uppers to get decent snowfall in frontal events. February 2012 is a key example. As long as you have low dew points and a surface flow off the continent, you'll usually be game on. 

[JamesL]

5 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

ECM meanat 144 looks pretty good

Indeed and just 10 days ago there would have been incredible excitement if this was showing when we were staring down the barrel of Atlantic drivel for the next 10 days! 

[northwestsnow]

Well its going to get cold, how cold still is for grabs.

As far as convection is concerned who knows, the uppers on ecm look ok fri and sat maybe not great the further south you go..

The problem is around 144 to 168 as out nemesis the azores high cuts off the cold uppers so i would imagine any hope for snow will be thur fri sat..

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Well its going to get cold, how cold still is for grabs.

As far as convection is concerned who knows, the uppers on ecm look ok fri and sat maybe not great the further south you go..

The problem is around 144 to 168 as out nemesis the azores high cuts off the cold uppers so i would imagine any hope for snow will be thur fri sat..

Although the ECM mean looks far better and the output will have changed again numerous times by this evening anyway.

I am not going to get hung up on snow chances a week away when the outlook seems to be chopping and changing well before that time frame.  If I see a flake or two great if not there will be further opportunities before this month / winter is out of that I am sure.  Looks darn cold whilst we wait though!  

[Seasonality]

Was being a bit tongue in cheek with my earlier post this morning. Still room for optimism, cold is deepening over Europe and as I've posted on several occasions the European cold keeps thwarting the Atlantic. Even at short range the models have been rather merde of late. Brilliant post by @Bring Back1962-63 again!

Here is a chart from FIM for a change. Won't require much adjustment to get the deeper cold further west. Fingers crossed.

 

[Gustywind]

10 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

ECM meanat 144 looks pretty good

It is ok, but after a winter of frustrating near misses and with deep cold so close yet so far, it's at best a 5/10 for me, with a 'could do better' comment!

The main flow is easterly but it takes a detour to the balkans and Turkey on route to the UK. Presumably this is due to that chunk of polar vortex in Russia dropping sse not ssw, so allowing the bottom right end of the Scandi high to sag. We need it to drop ssw and sharpen up the easterly flow and make it more direct.

Unfortunately we have cross model consensus for that not to happen now. 

[SMU]

Just to add before we settle into the loose cannon that is the 06z

- The ECM OP is +6c warmer than the mean @850 on the timeline T192-

So whilst that may not be 'to' reflective in the Surface temps if someone could post the ECM link with the dewpoints & wind directions then it will be a probable outlier -

( PS I havent got the link )

[bluearmy]

7 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Just to add before we settle into the loose cannon that is the 06z

- The ECM OP is +6c warmer than the mean @850 on the timeline T192-

So whilst that may not be 'to' reflective in the Surface temps if someone could post the ECM link with the dewpoints & wind directions then it will be a probable outlier -

( PS I havent got the link )

The rise in uppers post day 7 on the ec mean is the consequence of the Iberian trough being very sharp initially and driving an upper ridge into europe (Italy ish) ahead of it. At the same time the scandi ridge is sinking se  a little and the net result is to drive a wedge of higher heights and uppers into Europe to our south which heads north and just reaches the south of the uk. This trend is something which has become more apparent over recent ens runs. it may well throw a spanner into the the works of sustained cold although at the surface, it might not be so apparent. if the route forward thereafter remains cold, then we may not be impacted too much from it. 

[SMU]

16 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The rise in uppers post day 7 on the ec mean is the consequence of the Iberian trough being very sharp initially and driving an upper ridge into europe (Italy ish) ahead of it. At the same time the scandi ridge is sinking se  a little and the net result is to drive a wedge of higher heights and uppers into Europe to our south which heads north and just reaches the south of the uk. This trend is something which has become more apparent over recent ens runs. it may well throw a spanner into the the works of sustained cold although at the surface, it might not be so apparent. if the route forward thereafter remains cold, then we may not be impacted too much from it. 

Yes - although thus far the Iberian low impacts has been virtually over modelled & and Italian / Balken low has been under modellled so Im expecting a rebalancing over the next 72 hours... 

BA remember when this easterly was just one cobra run  

look today !!!

Edited February 5, 2017 by Steve Murr

[Summer Sun]

 

[Snowyowl9]

Only one way this can go due east.

[shaky]

2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Yes - although thus far the Iberian low impacts has been virtually over modelled & and Italian / Balken low has been under modellled so Im expecting a rebalancing over the next 72 hours... 

Steve what we looking out for in the 06z run!!anymore improvements possible in the 72 hour timeframe?

[geordiekev]

4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Yes - although thus far the Iberian low impacts has been virtually over modelled & and Italian / Balken low has been under modellled so Im expecting a rebalancing over the next 72 hours... 

Agree,  there seems to be a few people ready to jump off the roller coaster before its even climbed of the chain. 

The models are doing there best to predict what's going to happen to features modelled around the high,  before they've even been spawned, so of course there will be variations. 

Hang on tight,  I say, for those who enjoy the thrill,  Scream if you want to go faster.  I for one am not ready to bail. 

[TEITS]

I can understand the frustration on here.

At the moment next week does look rather uneventful as the models have consistently progged upper temps to be between -5C for the S and around -8C for the N. This might bring some snow flurries for some people but I doubt you will need a shovel to clear the snow. Beyond next week and our best hope remains for the high to remain in situ long enough to bring colder uppers around the high from Russia. However the models this morning suggest this might not happen as the high may move further S due to lowering heights to the NW.

All of the above may change but at the moment when you look at the synoptics and then look at the predicted upper temps and surface temps I feel as though I have won the Lotto but lost the ticket!

[Nick F]

The sinking of the Scandi high in the means on the extended EPS increases the doubt that we can achieve a reload with a clean and deep cold easterly in the days 10-15 period, best on offer is several days of cold and dry surface flow off the near continent, though how cold will depend on how cold it gets on near continent, maybe squeeze a few ice days with cloud cover and also chance of some snow flurries. Deep cold and convective easterly flow looks like a pipe dream for now.

Of course the EPS z500 mean maybe hiding some colder more easterly clusters that we can't see that may still come to fruition, but consider it a low probability for now unless new data swings the high res & ensembles in a better direction.

Edited February 5, 2017 by Nick F

[bluearmy]

19 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Yes - although thus far the Iberian low impacts has been virtually over modelled & and Italian / Balken low has been under modellled so Im expecting a rebalancing over the next 72 hours... 

BA remember when this easterly was just one cobra run  

look today !!!

Getting a surface low further east towards Italy is key to keeping CAA going. still can't put my finger on why I've been so under enthused by this period as if has approached- looking at the broad upper pattern screams snow potential and yet I've just felt pretty  'meh' about it. background. Conditions allow for snowfall Thursday onwards so hopefully some surprises can crop up. beyond day 8 and just not sure although odds on a MLB increasing. 

[phil nw.]

A decent set of op runs for the coming week with good agreement of colder air coming west towards the UK but the trend after that is for us to lose the cold feed as the flow turns more towards the south east.TBF this evolution has consistently been shown in successive model outputs.Gefs probably again more keener to sink the block than looks likely but the trend to continue to ride Greenland energy over the top remains.

A look at the latest ECM ens suite  then and the concerns with warmer air from S.Europe in week 2 remains as we again fail to see low pressure retained around the E.Med.

No doubt we get the initial cold flow later this week but as the High leaks south the cold uppers are cut off.

The ECM mean and ens charts show the evolution.

 

so we lose the cold uppers after a few days but with a light continental drift we would still feel cold at the surface.

[sebastiaan1973]

Dewpoint De Bilt for the plume can be found here

http://www.weerplaza.nl/15daagseverwachting/?r=midden&type=eps_pluim 

[Weather-history]

This was last Sunday's GFS  0z run for this Sunday morning. Look how zonal GFS was

Comapred with now

ECM 0z run from last Sunday

Edited February 5, 2017 by Weather-history

[Man With Beard]

Well why not look at D10 and beyond, that's what this forum is for, isn't it

It depends whether the ECM mean is closer to the mark than the GEFS mean - and for once I do not see why we should take the ECM over the GEFS

   

The GEFS mean fits in with just yesterday's ECM op, after all, and would be typical of the theme of low pressure stalling ahead of the block and only reinforcing it.

The general theme is similar though - heights remaining strong to the east, lows continuing to disrupt close to the location of the UK, flow to the UK continuing to have a east of south bias.

With it remaining very cold in E Europe, no need to throw in the towel over snow chances - but equally not a clear-cut snowy easterly.

[Timmytour]

4 minutes ago, TEITS said:

All of the above may change but at the moment when you look at the synoptics and then look at the predicted upper temps and surface temps I feel as though I have won the Lotto but lost the ticket!

Looks like we will at least get an easterly component with some cold, so a closer analogy might have been to have got five numbers up on the lottery, only for it to have been on one of those weeks with so many winners, you get less than someone with three numbers! 

At the moment I think any interpretation of the models has to nod towards a period of raw and cold which slowly fizzles away to average temps. It certainly has happened before.But things can change and hopefully will for the better. The draw is yet to be made and at least we have a ticket this time

[SMU]

33 minutes ago, shaky said:

Steve what we looking out for in the 06z run!!anymore improvements possible in the 72 hour timeframe?

Yes - in Easterlies allignment can move right down to T48... but not a 'huge' amount

what we are really looking for as intimated above is the iberian low to be more pebble shaped not circular & deeper development of any lows over the balkans so the net flow is straighter -

That gives a chance for the deeper cold to migrate west

S