Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..

[Summer Sun]

7 minutes ago, Luke Attwood said:

So ur basically saying the op should be showing slightly colder temps?

Based on that chart yes

[JBMWeatherForever]

Taking into consideration the bias of models in the circumstances with which we will find ourselves very soon, I think that we are going to have to continue to look to the past to fully envisage what is coming our way in the next few weeks.

I think that the models are currently only just hinting at what we could be about to get !  Granted this winter has so far been a big disappointment ( especially from what could already have transpired), but from what I can see I don't think that is going to continue for much longer !   

Bring on a proper and long lasting Beast from the East !!!  

[SLEETY]

The models always struggle with easterly set ups it will be a few days yet till will know how potent this easterly will be or not ,I wouldn't take much notice of anything beyond 5 or 6 days ahead ,plenty will change yet 

[Wilxy]

Has Meteociel crashed!

[stratty]

Just now, tomjwlx said:

Has Meteociel crashed!

yes - think so

 

[SMU]

The GFS continues to flatten the flow across Europe on the 18z - it is now more or less the exact replica of the UK- perhaps its better-

The Winds over Europe for 1pm Weds have been modelled Southerly, South Easterly & now direct Easterly -

Also highlighted earlier was the GFS upward bias of the heights over Europe being about 8 DAM to high- todays modelling around T84 has reduced the heights by around 4 Dam - look for more reductions tomorrow...

Lets see if the 18z can get tha Second deep cold pool nearer at around 192..

[Ice Day]

It's OK, Meteociel is working again.  -8's knocking on the door at 96, cold a tad further west on this run.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

3 minutes ago, tomjwlx said:

Has Meteociel crashed!

okay here, cold air out east 1am Thurs

[TomDav]

That low near Cornwall edging slightly closer i think

[tight isobar]

Negative slant on placement cell @scandinavia.

Its miniscule but major. 

Point-placement of situ is the overriding value of cold westwards advection of cold-and introduced of mass geographical complex of at overhead fruition. 

Tight as a drum atm' its knife edge 

For cold infer' and possibility regarding snow/prolongement. .

Or something quite speakable!!.

Unraveling of source still needs eyeing. 

Although its as close as waiting for the bonus ball..

[Tom Jarvis]

1 minute ago, tight isobar said:

Negative slant on placement cell @scandinavia.

Its miniscule but major. 

Point-placement of situ is the overriding value of cold westwards advection of cold-and introduced of mass geographical complex of at overhead fruition. 

Tight as a drum atm' its knife edge 

For cold infer' and possibility regarding snow/prolongement. .

Or something quite speakable!!.

Unraveling of source still needs eyeing. 

Although its as close as waiting for the bonus ball..

Oh god model fatuge has truly set he is speaking in riddles. But remeber people do not trust the models past t144 as they will not have a handle on the block that far out.

[January Snowstorm]

Poor 18z run with no proper easterly in situ by 144hrs..

Of course for east coast uk it's better as there closer to the frigid air

[Argyle1980]

Should Be a good thing this at 138. if that low just off the coast of Cornwall dives into northern France then southern Germany it should prop up the scani high. Hopefully giving us a better draw of cold air .

Edited February 4, 2017 by Argyle1980
Addition to comment

[Weathizard]

5 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

Poor 18z run with no proper easterly in situ by 144hrs..

Of course for east coast uk it's better as there closer to the frigid air

Poor?! Blimey you must have some seriously high standards, the 144 chart is far from poor

Edited February 4, 2017 by Weathizard

[chicken soup]

1 minute ago, Weathizard said:

Poor?! Blimey you must have some seriously high standards, the 144 chart is far from poor

He means poor for Ireland,,imbyism breaking out.

 

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Weathizard said:

Poor?! Blimey you must have some seriously high standards, the 144 chart is far from poor

I agree with him though, yes I prefer cold  and dry to mild but to a snow fan, does a few graupel pellets really give you a buzz?, if you don't get low heights, low 850's combined or frontal snow, then does anything else make it a good run?  Unless you think down the line will happen, yes that's a possibility but the slim chance of it happening in the next 15 to 20 days is draining away with every suite.

[Derecho]

6 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Poor?! Blimey you must have some seriously high standards, the 144 chart is far from poor

Sorry but I have to disagree. Compared to a couple of days ago there is nothing exciting about that chart, no sufficiently cold 850s and a sinking high to the east.

Doesn't bode well for the rest of the 18z

[Tim Bland]

8 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Poor?! Blimey you must have some seriously high standards, the 144 chart is far from poor

Depends what you are looking / hoping for. 18z GFS (so far) is poor if you are looking for snow. Apart from a few snow flurries in the Far East it is cold and dry. 

[booferking]

14 minutes ago, chicken soup said:

He means poor for Ireland,,imbyism breaking out.

 

Continental flow at best and an proper easterly can deliver for his location believe it are not, there is no papering over it its a poor run 850s are terrible only good thing is its the pub run.

Big easterly at end of run maybe but in la la land  NH profile completely different this run later on

Edited February 4, 2017 by booferking

[Frosty.]

Poor is mild swly mush, it looks increasingly cold next week..did anyone see tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean? Easterly flow incoming and very cold..could be much worse..I'm hoping for big things this month.

[nick sussex]

I know this GFS 18hrs run isn't going down too well because of the lack of an easterly early on but its overall in terms of NH pattern better than the 12hrs run and this type of volatility is likely as the MJO throws a curveball into the outputs.

Take into account the GFS bias and give it a few days and I think people will be pleasantly surprised.

Edited February 4, 2017 by nick sussex

[feb1991blizzard]

Ha Ha, Just when you think its gone wrong - another tease in FI. I think this looks the best GFS 200 (ish) hr chart for a few runs, look at the better cold pool and alignment, this run will deliver big in FI I think.

 

And if that vertical advection doesn't fire some stonking wve 2 up into the strat and rip the SPV apart then nothing will.

 

Edited February 4, 2017 by feb1991blizzard

[blizzard81]

The fax charts look a little underwhelming tonight for the end of next week.

[A Frayed Knot]

3 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

The fax charts look a little underwhelming tonight for the end of next week.

Could you please explain as i cannot get access to them ' thank you @blizzard81

[nick sussex]

4 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

The fax charts look a little underwhelming tonight for the end of next week.

It looks just like the raw output. Could be some interest as the occlusion slowly edges west with drier and colder air undercutting the precip from the east.