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Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

That's the important thing, trended better earlier and hopefully that will continue..great to see SM so positive, it's a good indicator for a decent cold spell..long may it last!:cold-emoji:

Importantly the Atlantic still can't break through - the high is much stronger than it looks - cold swinging back into Eastern Europe.

IMG_4180.PNG

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Posted
  • Location: Carmarthenshire
  • Location: Carmarthenshire
5 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

Not meaning to be negative but by T+180 we are getting back into SW'lys, and we have been seeing the GFS repeat this trend in the last few runs.... that's making me more than a bit nervous. 

You're taking too much notice of model output that's over a week away. We know how much things chop and change from run to run and model to model. Don't take anything as gospel that's over 72 hours away (and be cautious of that too even though it's more likely to be correct).

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
20 minutes ago, That ECM said:

It's a shame we don't get the 850's for ukmo but I guess it stops this place going to ramp mode. They would be very good imo.

Can get T850s in 12hr increments up to T+120 here: http://www.3bmeteo.com/carte-meteo/ukmo_europa_3b_12.php

Not a bad UKMO, with better orientation of the high, better than GFS anyhow.

EDIT, still yesterday's

Edited by Nick F
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Posted
  • Location: 4 miles north of Durham City
  • Location: 4 miles north of Durham City

Interesting polar-frontal modelling differences between the UK MET and ECM at T144. Notice how the Spanish low (an earlier development from the upper Greenland trough) starts to slowly become more shallow, with heights increasing slightly north of it to the west of Ireland. Why does this matter? Well, it's a sign of less energy in the southern arm of the jet, and at T144 we can see the reason why. Look at the vigorous shortwaves developing eastward from the Greenland arm of the vortex on the UK MET, in comparison with the ECM it's considerably more prominent. This is an example of the sort of uncertainty in the modelling of the polar front in the coming days, for all models.

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Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex

Presumably Meto 144 would go the same way as GFS albeit more slowly. Short term things look a bit better but it still looks to me like our high is going to become an MLB before we can get any deep cold this far west. GFS and METO and at the same time frame this morning ECM 168 all show the jet overriding to the north.

I think the block will be more resilient than suggested (aren't they always), but it will be a little too far south to deliver deep cold. Only my own view and no doubt others have a different take but personally I'm not buying anything than a bog standard winter cold snap at this stage.

We are at least in the game though whereas for much of the last 3-4 years that hasn't been the case.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Broadmayne, West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall in particular but most aspects of weather, hate hot and humid.
  • Location: Broadmayne, West Dorset
9 minutes ago, Iceberg said:

Look at the profile change around the Kara sea. 

It's a nice barometer of how the energy over the high has changed. A small switch and we get a strong high building pushing any energy over the pole. 

This is far from over. 

IMG_0738.PNG

IMG_0739.PNG

yes Iceberg and the meto has that profile at 144 rather than 236 as on the gfs

Edited by mcweather
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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

Snow-wise, I'm particularly interested in the "breakdown" at D8/D9 on GFS

Judging by the winter so far, we can expect a little bounce back from the block. This could well split the trough a bit more than is showing. Even though uppers will not be clever, there will be very cold air ahead. 

So I suspect a high chance of a stalling front with snow on the front edge, and a slightly less SWly picture developing over the next day or two.

In the shorter term, can't rule out some disturbances running through the north sea into Eastern areas next Friday/Saturday.

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Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent

A hint of spring in the low res part of the 12z GFS.

Personally after the potential incoming cold spell, it's springlike weather I will be looking for - so I can get out and play a bit of golf.

 

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

The 12z GFS days 8-12 is so questionable, it should be subjected to interrogation :laugh:

- but seriously, we see the troughs sharpened up and the jet into Europe maintained a lot better than previous runs, such that by the time it starts to stubbornly flatten out anyway, GFS' negative GLAAM bias is likely causing it to overlook an amplification signal emanating from the Pacific.

In any case, with that Pacific MJO activity becoming substantial in 7-8, with signs of a very desirable slowdown in 8 to prolong the period in which it's a major HLB catalyst, the longer any pushing away of the blocking is delayed, the more the odds shorten on the block being able to subdue the Atlantic and, it it has slumped south a bit, regain latitude in the following days.

ALL_emean_phase_full.gif

ECMF and GEFS are practically x-rated with their MJO projectoins and UKME looks keen to follow suit, but one wonders what CANM is seeing for such a different outlook (let alone JMAN which has been having some kind of fit for about a week now).

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

ENS are pretty good at 144, some proper Easterlies

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

192 ENS mean is clearly better the the Op

IMG_4182.PNG

Few examples

IMG_4183.PNG

And a cherry picked one 

 

 

IMG_4184.PNG

Edited by Ali1977
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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
Just now, nick sussex said:

I think theres  good chance that we'll see another attempt to pull some deeper cold westwards. I'd be dubious of outputs trying to flatten the high and we might be seeing the ops slow to react to the MJO.

Overall a decent start to the evening, lets hope the ECM can go that bit further and have another attempt to bring some deeper cold westwards.

Entirely with you on that Nick, our fascination with the MJO might yet pay off big time! Or at least, big-ish :laugh:. Like - I've seen people talking of the rarity of a March like 2013, but what about half a month on that scale? I wish I had time to investigate!

As an aside - it's great to see a larger number of forum contributors weighing up the potential influence of tropical forcing in the longer-term; this manner of looking for how the model output as a whole might change is the true art of 'informed forecasting' :D

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
10 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

ENS are pretty good at 144, some proper Easterlies

All to play for, lots to be encouraged about with these perturbations!:cold:

Some Beauties in there!

4_144_850tmp.png

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11_144_850tmp.png

14_144_850tmp.png

15_144_850tmp.png

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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.

Monstrous cold pool at far FI. Just for (censored :rofl:) and giggles but nice to look at.

gfseu-0-384 (1).png

Edited by Seasonality
Humour
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Posted
  • Location: blackburn
  • Weather Preferences: heavy snow/ heatwaves
  • Location: blackburn
6 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Indeed

its all about PTB number 2

IMG_2308.thumb.PNG.e3fcd66c08d551d2663da0456d88ef08.PNG

If in the unlikely event of this occuring as shown, would it equal countrywide snow.

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