Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..

[snowray]

2 minutes ago, Hull snow said:

I thort the normal thing in these types of setup is for the models to massively underestimate the block n back the pattern west as we count down to t0

Yes I thought that too, but its not happening, we have seen the opposite.

JMA would be a move in the right direction though.

[Hull snow]

Still time for a swing sm is usually on the money and the 6z yesturday was poor I think from the past things will start to upgrade short term soon and by tomoz 12z we will have much better idea as to what's on the way

[phil nw.]

Quite a cold ECM mean by day 5 as the upper cold pool arrives from the east.

The one ingredient missing is the maintaining of low pressure over the eastern med later in the suite which allows the high to leak south and along with the Iberian trough this would gradually modify the cold from the south.

As i have said before not a classic easterly but cold enough for a few days as the high holds around Scandinavia.Maybe a few flurries later but i can't see any signs yet of notable snow in the current modeling.  

[snowray]

14 minutes ago, Hull snow said:

Still time for a swing sm is usually on the money and the 6z yesturday was poor I think from the past things will start to upgrade short term soon and by tomoz 12z we will have much better idea as to what's on the way

I hope your right. The mean not so good on the 06Z though, another downgrade.

[Seasonality]

Already cooling down here in central Europe. Still -3 outside which is rather cooler than has been predicted. Last week we were meant to have a thaw and temps 7°C plus at this time. As @Bring Back1962-63 has ably pointed out the models have consistently underestimated the strength of the European cold block and overestimated the Atlantic push east. Hopefully means good news further down the line for the UK. 

[nick sussex]

I can understand people worrying about the cold pool but this changes from run to run typical of this kind of set up.

Theres still a chance we may see another attempt to advect some deeper cold westwards, the troughing to the west towards days 7 to 10 may well sharpen up in response to the MJO progression which would send less energy ne and more se.

This would then see the high remain further north so I think there might be some premature forecasts of gloom in here because the background signal is more amplitude not less.

 

 

[A.J]

56 minutes ago, Snowman31 said:

Unlikely to be right against bigger models at just 72 hours though

It may be worth noting that a year or so ago Ian Fergusson mentioned that the met office do in fact hold the JMA model in fairly high regard, although I can't remember if it's used in their forecasting suite

Edited February 4, 2017 by ajpoolshark

[nick sussex]

Still waiting for the other forecasts from the big 3 which are out later but this has shown a steady increase in amplitude over the last week and rock solid agreement there on continued progression towards the promised land!

[mulzy]

What seems to be clear is the big difference in the mean 850 HPa temperatures between the GEFS and the EPS in the day 4-7 period.  Here is my updated graph for the EPS 850 hPa temperatures (for London) - they go quite a bit colder that the GEFS suite. 

 

 

Edited February 4, 2017 by mulzy

[Duane S.]

12 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

I can understand people worrying about the cold pool but this changes from run to run typical of this kind of set up.

Theres still a chance we may see another attempt to advect some deeper cold westwards, the troughing to the west towards days 7 to 10 may well sharpen up in response to the MJO progression which would send less energy ne and more se.

This would then see the high remain further north so I think there might be some premature forecasts of gloom in here because the background signal is more amplitude not less.

 

 

That's how I am seeing it too.

I think the models are largely under estimating the effects of the Pacific influence on the pattern in the days to come, I suspect we are going to see more undercut occurring from the Atlantic down through into the Med. Thus less energy riding over the top.

The interesting thing here though in this setup is that even if not and the Northern arm remains strong for longer, that still may not end up being a bad thing in the long run, albeit we may have to endure a mild(er) transitional period.

[johnholmes]

Not to clutter up this thread but I have made comment regarding the latest Met O update for 6-15 days in the relevant thread. It is to me quite relevant to what folk are discussing on here but PLEASE if you read it do not transfer your comments on to here, keep it in the Met O thread

link

thanks

sorry I cannot get it to paste the link

Edited February 4, 2017 by johnholmes

[johnholmes]

18 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

It may be worth noting that a year or so ago Ian Fergusson mentioned that the met office do in fact hold the JMA model in fairly high regard, although I can't remember if it's used in their forecasting suite

I don't think it is used but they do I gather use it as they assemble the 'words' of their forecast and give it a higher rating than GFS!

[sebastiaan1973]

13 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Still waiting for the other forecasts from the big 3 which are out later but this has shown a steady increase in amplitude over the last week and rock solid agreement there on continued progression towards the promised land!

I Presume you mean phase 8, the almighty Greenland high? 

[johnholmes]

Sorry yet another input from me

The comments made about blocks being too easily shifted by an Atlantic flow are as true now as they were 40-50 years ago. Long before the days of weather models. Then we attempted to give a 24 hour forecast ahead, sometimes 48 and the persistence of blocks was almost always under estimated. It seems the models are just as fallible although obviously the time scales are much greater than decades ago.

Edited February 4, 2017 by johnholmes

[Day 10]

No point in going past 120 when the big three all have differing ideas on the scandi block. The ECM the best solution for me.

As Nick has stated the the backround signals suggest more amplitude not less. So definitely scope for upgrades.

The sun is out stay positive

 

[Johnp]

15 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Not to clutter up this thread but I have made comment regarding the latest Met O update for 6-15 days in the relevant thread. It is to me quite relevant to what folk are discussing on here but PLEASE if you read it do not transfer your comments on to here, keep it in the Met O thread

link

thanks

sorry I cannot get it to paste the link

Still annoys me that we have to faff around finding another forum to read about it when it is clearly model related.

I still haven't found it? Any links?

[johnholmes]

2 minutes ago, Johnp said:

Still annoys me that we have to faff around finding another forum to read about it when it is clearly model related.

I still haven't found it? Any links?

I will go and get it for you, it is the same forum.

 

Edited February 4, 2017 by johnholmes

[blizzard81]

40 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

I can understand people worrying about the cold pool but this changes from run to run typical of this kind of set up.

Theres still a chance we may see another attempt to advect some deeper cold westwards, the troughing to the west towards days 7 to 10 may well sharpen up in response to the MJO progression which would send less energy ne and more se.

This would then see the high remain further north so I think there might be some premature forecasts of gloom in here because the background signal is more amplitude not less.

 

 

I wish someone would tell the GFS this lol

[A.J]

28 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

I don't think it is used but they do I gather use it as they assemble the 'words' of their forecast and give it a higher rating than GFS!

Thanks John, given your years in the met office I should've asked you directly...doh!.......It's interesting to note though that they rate the JMA higher than the GFS, and in light of that @Steve Murr please keep posting those lovely JMA charts!

[stotm]

26 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Sorry yet another input from me

The comments made about blocks being too easily shifted by an Atlantic flow are as true now as they were 40-50 years ago. Long before the days of weather models. Then we attempted to give a 24 hour forecast ahead, sometimes 48 and the persistence of blocks was almost always under estimated. It seems the models are just as fallible although obviously the time scales are much greater than decades ago.

Why is this not sorted out ? Just tell them programs to stop moving blocks to fast.There must be a reason for it to still happen? Is it all models that do this?

[TEITS]

7 minutes ago, stotm said:

Why is this not sorted out ? Just tell them programs to stop moving blocks to fast.There must be a reason for it to still happen? Is it all models that do this?

I shall explain later why this is because I have a theory why the models do this and its all to do with how they are programmed.

Back to the models and I hope my lack of faith in the ensembles is correct because these upper temps for an E,ly are frankly pathetic.

Certainly no beast from the east!

[Frosty.]

Models are firming up now on a change to much colder weather from the east from wed / thurs with ice days / frosty nights becoming increasingly likely and snow flurries / snow showers feeding in off the north sea and making it well inland..upgrade!

[northwestsnow]

5 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Models are firming up now on a change to much colder weather from the east from wed / thurs with ice days / frosty nights becoming increasingly likely and snow flurries / snow showers feeding in off the north sea and making it well inland..upgrade!

Yes m8 im expecting upgrades from now on in, like John im thinking the models are too keen to push back scandy highs.

Gfs in particular is junk.

 

[JBMWeatherForever]

Yes, hopefully we will see some upgrades in the models as we progress towards Wednesday/Thursday. Always remember such blocks being underestimated, especially by the GFS which has always had an Atlantic bias in such circumstances. We may hopefully see some classic scenario's being modelled shortly.  

[MR EXTREMES]

Probably how it's so topsy-turvy could be where the next low pressure settles in Europe if it's to the south of us then there better scope for drawing the easterly flow.

The azores also is a key factor as after the easterly has set in azores wants to ridge in over us but of course possible that further on some kind of retrograde Iceland Greenland maybe.

But met office must be pretty confident of easterly and there own model gfs well what can I say totally crazy model.

I'm just greatful for the ecm and jma an ukmo models although gem gone of on one today.

If the Scandi block is anything like 09/10 or 2013 even Feb 08 they were all extremely robust.

Sometimes it took weeks for these blocks to be broken down.

Let's get the easterly in then we shall see if this will produce at least something a little more exciting to be honest this winter has been close to classic.