Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..

[snowice]

3 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

What the 18z says to me is colder but mainly dry weather from Thursday of next week though it will feel bitter in the wind. Ice days possible Friday/Saturday with snow flurries on favoured coasts.

It's a far from robust setup imo with the Scandi high collapsing on Sunday. It isn't much to write home about

It's 1000 times better than the whole winter loads of time to upgrade as Gfs corrects the pattern westwards slowly

Edited February 3, 2017 by snowice

[Allseasons-Si]

At 240 i see an arctic high with a lobe of pv to the east of finland advecting west that could disrupt that Atlantic trough south

maybe not this time but it's miles better than the 12z that for sure.

Edited February 3, 2017 by Allseasons-si

[joggs]

10 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

Still a fantastic split across the pole at T+210 with cross polar flow ( but from the Atlantic to Pacific) on this run. Leaves further opportunities down the line.

Too me though the split(as good as it is to see)is not good for our little island imo re,no trough disruption longer term.

I look at that and think we're in no man's land.

This winter has been pants,luckwise for things going against the grain.

Could change I suppose.Just going on that chart.

Edited February 3, 2017 by joggs

[Frostbite1980]

I wish the bloody high to the SW would do one, it has been the fly in the ointment most the winter and yet again on the 18z its poking its nose into unwanted business!

[joggs]

3 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

At 240 i see an arctic high with a lobe of pv to the east of finland advecting west that could disrupt that Atlantic trough south

Too much energy across the usual place......Greenland. we'd need thato a couple of thousand miles further sw and the weak high to back west over the top.

[chionomaniac]

7 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

What the 18z says to me is colder but mainly dry weather from Thursday of next week though it will feel bitter in the wind. Ice days possible Friday/Saturday with snow flurries on favoured coasts.

It's a far from robust setup imo with the Scandi high collapsing on Sunday. It isn't much to write home about

A collapsing high a week on Sunday on an operational GFS output- I do wonder what you expect JS? Did you look at the NH profile? At present this does not look like the ordinary run of the mill Atlantic regain control type of  profile. The split into the strat is still there!

[Frosty.]

Most important thing at this stage is it looks like becoming significantly colder from the east during the second half of next week with widespread frosts, ice days for some and snow flurries to eastern counties bordering the north sea.. it could become better still...very encouraging..and a cracking Ecm 12z mean..another good day.

[January Snowstorm]

4 minutes ago, snowice said:

It's 1000 times better than the whole winter loads of time to upgrade as Gfs corrects the pattern westwards slowly

I've lived through many an Easterly and the proper ones last at least 2 weeks (which for my location) ain't bad.

A proper Scandi high remains in situ for at least ten days driving colder and colder air over us. I agree it's better than anything of late and that's to be welcomed. 

BUT to be properly objective about the situation things could easily nudge further East than West and dilute the cold. All to play for and hoping for upgrades tomorrow but for me feet firmly on the ground  (as appears to be the case with meto)

[chionomaniac]

4 minutes ago, joggs said:

Too me though the split(as good as it is to see)is not good for our litelephone island imo re,no trough disruption longer term.

I look at that and think we're in no man's land.

This winter has been pants,luckwise for things going against the grain.

Could change I suppose.Just going on that chart.

It is the fact that the split is where it is that makes this true! But wouldn't life be boring otherwise and any MJO help will be much appreciated in this type of set up.

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

A collapsing high a week on Sunday on an operational GFS output- I do wonder what you expect JS? Did you look at the NH profile? At present this does not look like the ordinary run of the mill Atlantic regain control type of  profile. The split into the strat is still there!

Yes Its a better run than the 12z, much better wave break into the strat. I just wish that Greenland lobe of vortex would just bugger off a tad more to the West more though.

[January Snowstorm]

2 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

A collapsing high a week on Sunday on an operational GFS output- I do wonder what you expect JS? Did you look at the NH profile? At present this does not look like the ordinary run of the mill Atlantic regain control type of  profile. The split into the strat is still there!

Does the ecm not show a similar breakdown of sorts? Park the gfs, what other credible model is showing a sustained Easterly flow?

[Wilxy]

 Happy!

At least the trend is continuing on the 18z for colder weather later next week, and it was a slight improvement on the 12z so overall a better end to the day model wise!

GFS

UKMO

ECM

JMA

GEM

 

Decent trend at 144h on high pressure building to are NE!

GFS being worst case scenario, and GEM being best case scenario! 

 

[Frostbite1980]

Just now, January Snowstorm said:

Does the ecm not show a similar breakdown of sorts? Park the gfs, what other credible model is showing a sustained Easterly flow?

All models are credible in their own right, I don't think there is any question now about whether there will be an easterly of sorts introducing cooler/colder weather it is just a question of how cold and if like me you want.....snowy and how long the cold spell lasts.

[chionomaniac]

5 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

Does the ecm not show a similar breakdown of sorts? Park the gfs, what other credible model is showing a sustained Easterly flow?

UKMO?

 

Edited February 3, 2017 by chionomaniac

[January Snowstorm]

1 minute ago, chionomaniac said:

UKMO?

Yes UKMO is good at 168hrs as they all are. My point is that further into FI they all cut off the cold (albeit by different means) I'm not trying to rubbish any opinions here your guess is better than mine just trying to bring some objectivity to what could go wrong. My opinion is this will end up a 3 to 4 day cold dry spell and nothing else but am hoping beyond hope that am proved wrong

[phil nw.]

Next week certainly will go much colder once the Atlantic runs out of steam against the block.The 8th/9th Feb as been the key dates in the modeling for a few days now where the cold from the east starts to head into the UK.

Initially it still looks quite a dry continental south easterly in week 1 with the block orientated unfavourably for a convective easterly feed,That 12z GEM had the almost classic setup early doors where we had a chunk of Siberian vortex coming west under the block but that apart we have yet to see signs of a convective easterly from the other models.

 

 

[mulzy]

The JMA goes this at day 8

to this at day 11!  FI I know but a plausible evolution in my opinion.

[chionomaniac]

11 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

Yes UKMO is good at 168hrs as they all are. My point is that further into FI they all cut off the cold (albeit by different means) I'm not trying to rubbish any opinions here your guess is better than mine just trying to bring some objectivity to what could go wrong. My opinion is this will end up a 3 to 4 day cold dry spell and nothing else but am hoping beyond hope that am proved wrong

We all know what can go wrong JS but some of us prefer to concentrate on what can go right and the reasons why. I will stick to that motto. In life it does me no harm to plan for the worst and hope for the best. I suggest that that should be a model watching mantra!

Edited February 3, 2017 by chionomaniac

[damianslaw]

Looking at the arctic profile, increasing signs for heights to build directly over the Pole - the strat warming most likely being the reason, this is backed up by the AO index going into significant negative territory, but we have a strong PV lobe over Greenland still in the medium term, which may scupper any chance for the scandi high to hold the atlantic at bay for any great time, but thanks to the build of heights directly over the Pole, this would most likely increase the chance for trough disruption and we could easily be looking at a NW/N arctic airflow past mid month.

You need to look at the bigger picture over the northern hemisphere and not the fine intra run variability, a shortlived easterly possibly very potent, then a slack airstream with scandi heights sinking, arctic high development - stuntering atlantic - trigger low trough disruption, heights to the north/northwest ... could be the pattern for February. What I'm not seeing a dominant atlantic or azores high/mid latt blocking scenario returning anytime soon.

[Frostbite1980]

2 minutes ago, mulzy said:

The JMA goes this at day 8

to this at day 11!  FI I know but a plausible evolution in my opinion.

Beautiful......see what can happen when you lose heights to the south 

[Cheshire Freeze]

11 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

We all know what can go wrong JS but some of us prefer to concentrate on what can go right and the reasons why. I will stick to that motto!

The issue is, Chiono, things more often go wrong than they go right in the UK so I prefer to be realistic with potential pitfalls. People can say it's negativity but the fact that I've seen a dozen ramping episodes on this forum and yet with no substantial cold spells actually materialising over the past couple of years, it speaks for itself.

I'd be the first one to ramp away if I saw something truly great in the modelling but from the promise and optimism of just 48 hours ago (where we had the potential for a very notable E'ly spell) we have now been left with a couple of days of E/SE'ly winds and a modest cold pool to play with under fairly high pressure.

Eastern and southeastern areas may well see snow, but what I'm seeing at the moment for everyone else is grey, stratiform sky with a cold wind.

For what it's worth I don't foresee this spell being the last period of interest this month (nor even into March) and I'm not buying a long term descent into the MLB that we have seen for much of the winter thus far. So, longer term I quite agree with you.

Edited February 3, 2017 by CreweCold

[Allseasons-Si]

11 minutes ago, mulzy said:

The JMA goes this at day 8

to this at day 11!  FI I know but a plausible evolution in my opinion.

Don't forget the uppers

[A Frayed Knot]

What time do the next set of charts come out please .

[Summer Sun]

9 minutes ago, A Frayed Knot said:

What time do the next set of charts come out please .

GFS from around 03:30 ECM from 6am 

[Jason M]

GEFS are a bit disappointing overall. Some very odd looking charts though so they are really struggling at the moment.