Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..

[SMU]

Very good ECM 96

A scoop of deep cold at 72 - not quite as good as GEM at 96 but much better than 00z

....

[Mark wheeler]

5 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

GEM & ECM at 72

Not great at navigating around quickly  was UKMO similar to this?

Edited February 3, 2017 by Mark wheeler

[booferking]

Ecm 96hr very close.

[Day 10]

1 minute ago, Mark wheeler said:

Not great at navigating around quickly  was UKMO similar to this?

Here you go mate

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

Not great at navigating around quickly  was UKMO similar to this?

[bluearmy]

there is a feature on meteociel 'activer live compare' which enables you to flick between the models for the same timeframe. also shows previous runs and indicates that todays ecm op is further west than yesterdays with the block. also better axis of WAA into the arctic. need to get the trough se T144/168

[Scandinavian High.]

14 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

GEM & ECM at 72

Could you explain what going here as I'm a newbie thanks.

[cheshire snow]

-10 uppers in touching distance at T144 on the ECM,Just clipping the Far NE of Scotland

C.S

[Gowon]

A better block over Scandinavia

[MR EXTREMES]

but the ecm 144 is beaut 

[northwestsnow]

Surely the energy has to go under at 168?

[Ali1977]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Surely the energy has to go under at 168?

Sure did, awesome ECM. Did not expect this at all.

The GEM has always led the others !!!! I wonder where this will go, that could be snowy down south. 

Edited February 3, 2017 by Ali1977

[MR EXTREMES]

upgrade beautiful

[karyo]

Brilliant ECM! At 168 hours there should be snow showers from Lincolnshire northwards

[Frosty.]

I'm joining the running commentary..cheering the Ecm 12z on as the cold air seeps slowly w / sw

Edited February 3, 2017 by Frosty.

[Johnp]

Lovely JMA at 156hrs 

[northwestsnow]

I make -11 uppers into NE England at 168...

[SMU]

16 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

Could you explain what going here as I'm a newbie thanks.

Its hard to explain quickly however if you look at both charts east of Finland you will see a 'blob' of blue - this is a chunk of the polar vortex thats sheared off moving towards Europe- 

If you really zoom in the GEM has it going SW as a wave, the ECM has it deeper ( because it has a partial phase with other energy ) & as a result its heading SSW

That small difference means the GEM gets that blob ( or 'lobe' ) of vortex all the way across europe, where as ECM holds it more to the SE ... There are other factors why but thats the main reason we are looking as we wanted them to be identical !

 

[Ali1977]

1 minute ago, Johnp said:

Lovely JMA at 156hrs 

This looks awesome too - GEM ECM and JMA ...EPS - lets hope they are even better

[nick sussex]

Looking at the ECM and I think we can correlate how good or bad the cold advection will be initially by the area near Svalbard and the shortwave track. The more se the shortwave digs early on at T72hrs the more unlikely you'll get the deeper cold because the shortwave cutting se further west then points to the cold pool being pushed se. The ECM has a better orientated high than the GFS/UKMO and the bellwether is the shortwave, the GEM takes the jet more cleanly ne'wards and then has a better jet cut back.

The ECM T168hrs is very good but its key you get low heights now developing in the northern Med, the energy needs to go se not south towards the Azores.

[Frosty.]

This is so much better than the Ecm 00z at T+168!..come on

Edited February 3, 2017 by Frosty.

[Scandyhigh]

3 minutes ago, Johnp said:

Lovely JMA at 156hrs 

That's yesterdays......

[northwestsnow]

192

[Ali1977]

Ooohhhhhhh YES

Can we hold of the lobe coming South from Greeny to prolong it though!! Not so confident on that, although WAA NE is slightly further North than previous 

Edited February 3, 2017 by Ali1977

[Iceberg]

Meto far closer to the ecm than gfs imho. I've seen enough from the ec to be happy with it. The key for any easterly is always t120_140. This is always where it goes pear shaped and where it gets nailed. 

All good tonight.