Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..

[jvenge]

2 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

I am actually beginning to think that the west/south west & Wales will do better for snow than the east. Fronts look like pushing in from the atlantic much quicker than the models were predicting over the last couple of days.

The west can see rain, didn't see anything to suggest snow yet.

[chris55]

I don't see a major "spoiler" so to speak like we did back in Jan with the track of that Azores low, it's more an eastward/westward correction and how far west we can manage to pull that continental flow. As long as we can achieve a flow off the continent chances of snowfall will follow. 

 Now I know many in the south east are looking for those very cold 850s to land for the convective snow showers to develop, and they may well get dragged in, but for now I'm happy if we can simply get that continental influence in. 

[The Weather Dragon]

The models are showing a block to the east and the atlantic to the west. 

[Blizzardof82]

Overnight runs and 6z still showing same theme, where the Scandi high finishes and what the Azores high does still not set in stone. I don't even have to go on Metociel to look at charts I can come on here see who is posting and know the placement of those said highs. I wish people would stop point scoring and commentate on what models are showing or what they think may evolve(which very few do).

[blizzard81]

2 minutes ago, Blizzardof82 said:

Overnight runs and 6z still showing same theme, where the Scandi high finishes and what the Azores high does still not set in stone. I don't even have to go on Metociel to look at charts I can come on here see who is posting and know the placement of those said highs. I wish people would stop point scoring and commentate on what models are showing or what they think may evolve(which very few do).

I would always advise people to look at the models for themselves rather than just look at comments on this forum. 

[stotm]

1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

Looks like I was a little too optimistic lol. Even the 06z run smells the coffee. I expect the 12z runs to carry on the downgrade route.

The models run the numbers and they don't seem to programmed that the BOOM charts setup we like to see doesn't  happen very often . The programmers  don't seem to be able to stop them playing with these outputs in the 5 day plus range . They could use the U.K. as good block on rogue runs to help there forecasts for the rest of the world, if it's very cold and snowy then it's wrong 90 percent of the time conversely correct for anything else 90 percent of the time.This is just the way it seems to me, hopefully the models will be correct sooner than later with a BOOM chart, about 3 times every 10 years? Not saying it's not this time. 

 

[EastAnglian]

13 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

I would always advise people to look at the models for themselves rather than just look at comments on this forum. 

I would echo that yesterday I saw a few posts from people talking about a westward move of the High pressure to our North East. When you flicked through the images the older output had the high further west and the later model output had it further east and north of the UK. I checked several times to make sure I had the frames in the correct sequence, simple mistake to make but just reading the comment and not checking the output would have given a completely wrong impression. Still, I am the last one to talk about this I make frequent mistakes, however, the referenced post is good advice.  

Edited February 3, 2017 by EastAnglian

[Daniel*]

39 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

And the theme is the watering down of the easterly - a little like what happened last month.

I think that's nonsense TBH the ECM mean is v good - mean 850 temps of -8C for parts of eastern England at 168hrs. That's quite impressive 'marked' cold from E. 

UKMO remains steadfast on cold easterlies soon making an appearance. 

Edited February 3, 2017 by Daniel*

[frosty ground]

The Control follows the OP but Ensemble 1 does not.

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, EastAnglian said:

I would echo that yesterday I saw a few post of people talking about a westward move of the High pressure to our North East. When you flicked through the images the older output had the high further west and the later model had it further east and north of the UK. I check several times to make sure I had the frames in the correct sequence, simple mistake to make but just reading the comment and not checking the output would have given a completely wrong impression. Still, I am the last one to talk about this I make frequent mistakes, still the reference post is good advice. .  

How true  A little like life really. Always listen to the opinion of others but always trust in your own judgement as well.

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

I think that's nonsense TBH the ECM mean is v good - mean 850 temps of -8C for parts of eastern England at 168hrs. That's quite impressive 'marked' cold from E. 

UKMO remains steadfast on cold easterlies now into D5. 

g

All well and good but the ecm means have been very fickle beasts this winter.

[Iceberg]

I would recommend folks look directly at the models as well. About 90% of the ens members from gfs 06z are at odd with the operational at t144. 

Folks should check them out then firmly put the gfs 06z suite in the easterly and cold is still firmly on box. 

[frosty ground]

Just now, blizzard81 said:

All well and good but the ecm means have been very fickle beasts this winter.

Along with the Op's 

[Iceberg]

1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

All well and good but the ecm means have been very fickle beasts this winter.

Sorry i can't let you get away with that comment the means by the nature of maths can't be more fickle than its members. 

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, Iceberg said:

Sorry i can't let you get away with that comment the means by the nature of maths can't be more fickle than its members. 

Never said anything to the contrary lol.

[Day 10]

The latest big 3 at 120.

Quite happy with what they are showing. We are in a damn sight better position than we have been all winter. Yes the latter frames of some of the output aren't as good but who cares as they WILL keep chopping & changing.

There could easily be upgrades & downgrades from here. At least this time we have a realistic chance of upgrades rather than straw clutching and pure hope.

ONWARDS & WESTWARDS COLD AND SNOW PLEASE...

Edited February 3, 2017 by Day 10

[Methuselah]

Absolutely , Day 10; and, given that 'poor' seems only to mean 'doesn't dump six-feet of snow over the whole of the UK & Ireland by T+144', I reckon the longer-term prognosis is really rather good...As per usual, only time (and the real weather, of course) will tell...

[jvenge]

GEFS 06z Mean. A good run for Western Europe for those looking for cold.

 

Looking at the ensembles, they seem to have settled more out towards T144 than they previously were. Of course, there is settled in the sense they smelt the ultimate correct solution and there is the settled in that they all agree on the wrong one ;-)

Edited February 3, 2017 by jvenge

[Iceberg]

T180 mean looks very good. Most of the energy going under the high. Cold draw of winds. High firmly in place. Lows pushing up to give sw areas a chance of snow. 

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, Iceberg said:

T180 mean looks very good. Most of the energy going under the high. Cold draw of winds. High firmly in place. Lows pushing up to give sw areas a chance of snow. 

The basic difference between the 06z gefs mean and the 06z run is precisely that 

he mean jet heads ne in the 00z and se on the 06z out to day 10. Makes an enormous diff to the block 

off to look at the clusters rather than the individual members 

[Weathizard]

6 minutes ago, Iceberg said:

T180 mean looks very good. Most of the energy going under the high. Cold draw of winds. High firmly in place. Lows pushing up to give sw areas a chance of snow. 

Indeed a very good mean, still of slight concern that the Azores ridge is coming over the top which shows this must be an option backed by some ensembles but certainly a mean not to be sniffed at and shows the door firmly shut in the Atlantics face.

That also being said, in complex scenarios involving scandi heights I think the OP/Control are generally better guidelines, Just my opinion though! 

[blizzard81]

The one thing that fills me with some confidence is that I have found the 06z gfs ops to be way off the mark over the years. Let's hope that is the case today.

Edited February 3, 2017 by blizzard81

[Seasonality]

1 hour ago, jvenge said:

Not a bad run from the 06z. I wouldn't be surprised to see the GEFS mean singing a similar tune, although probably with not so much cold into central Europe.

Looks like there are lots of colder options for central Europe. Op and control on the milder end.

[Seasonality]

21 minutes ago, jvenge said:

GEFS 06z Mean. A good run for Western Europe for those looking for cold.

 

Looking at the ensembles, they seem to have settled more out towards T144 than they previously were. Of course, there is settled in the sense they smelt the ultimate correct solution and there is the settled in that they all agree on the wrong one ;-)

Chilly for Moldova.

[Iceberg]

11 of the 20 runs bring 850s of around -10 into central England. That's a very strong signal. 

Re ops if you get ops for a whole days of runs going consistently against the ens mean I would favour the new ops trend. However we've not really seen that yet. 

A good example of the ens being more useful is the strong low pressure system al la Doris progged by the ops. Ens didn't provide more than 30% support for them and it looks like the ens were right and the ops largely wrong.