Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..

[Allseasons-Si]

1 minute ago, Mucka said:

True. Big picture it ain't that bad but in the context of GEM and UKMO it ain't great that's for sure.

 

1 minute ago, There's a storm a coming said:

I Agree! But where is this run going? The next few frames could be interesting!

Tasac

I would hazard a guess that at 168 hrs is looking good and could be following the gfs with that cold pool out of NE Scandi

[seabreeze86]

4 minutes ago, Banbury said:

LOL

Its only at 168 , give the thing a chance

Why I'm commenting on 144hrs,  I'm not saying it can't develop into something better later on but we have lost the really cold uppers due to what transpires at 144hrs,  like I said more runs needed

Edited February 2, 2017 by seabreeze86

[Day 10]

1 minute ago, tomjwlx said:

After 144h.

ECM

UKMO

GFS

Looking like the ECM is more in line with the UKMO than the GFS!

On phone so only viewing what has been posted. At least we are at 144 (7 days away). Just another variation of the block, plenty of time for change one way or the other. All roads may lead to cold anyway.

[The Weather Dragon]

The overall trend with the current output is a phasing of the azores high with the scandinavian high and then a gradual sinking of the scandi high - giving us a cool  SE flow - not what we want - the real interest is in the 10/12 day period following this initial easterly attempt.

[chris55]

The cold uppers to the north east really do seem to get "sucked up" by that low at 144, although at 168 a second chance looks likely.

[There's a storm a coming]

As Steve M said we may need at least 2 cycles to get the real cold here and by the looks of the ecm he could be spot on

Tasac

[snowice]

Very different t850s between Gfs/ECM

[Mucka]

4 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

 

I would hazard a guess that at 168 hrs is looking good and could be following the gfs with that cold pool out of NE Scandi

The issue is not that the block is not substantial but that it is fairly low lat and poorly oriented to pull in cold uppers. There is no continental cold pool on that 168 chart precisely because of that.

Depends upon your expectations as always and good/bad is more in context of snow prospects and early cold plunge rather than a more timid drawn out affair where we put our hopes on deeper FI.

Edited February 2, 2017 by Mucka

[There's a storm a coming]

What does seem to stand out with the models is that what ever happens in the short to mid term with block orientation/low sliding etc we still seem to end up with some form of easterly by the 10th....just not sure how cold it will be

Tasac

[snowice]

2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Very good ECM 

It's fighting back. 168hrs-8uppers country wide

Edited February 2, 2017 by snowice

[Day 10]

17 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Poor ECM. Boooo

 

4 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Very good ECM 

Lol Ali, which is it?

[Gowon]

The block just keeps beating up that PV to the NW.. It sucking the life out it!

 

[chris55]

Whatever the inter run differences, you can not deny that is one impressive block! Every run different at the moment and the ensembles have no clear signal either. Very enjoyable period of model watching.

[Frosty.]

So..the Ecm 12z has gone from poor to very good..phew what a relief, I enjoy the running commentary but it can get confusing which is why I like to let the run finish before commenting.

[Allseasons-Si]

Lol!

that's a narrow margine for error at 216.

jma not bad but the cold upper only stick to the east coast

not a bad set of suits today,better than zonal mush.

Edited February 2, 2017 by Allseasons-si

[There's a storm a coming]

Yep! The next few frames were very interesting....cold uppers flooding west towards the uk. Let's wait until the ensembles and see where this run sits. Let's just hope it's not the start of the high being forecast more into Europe like a few weeks back.

Tasac

Edited February 2, 2017 by There's a storm a coming

[mb018538]

ECM looks fine....pressure pretty high though, so not much in the way of ppn. It'll be damned cold though! Temps around freezing or just above.

[Gowon]

1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

Lol!

that's a narrow margine for error at 216.

Yeah it's trying to fight back but it'll probably get an uppercut from the block

[nick sussex]

One ingredient missing is low pressure over Southern Europe, between T168hrs and T192 hours we want to see that trough disruption sending energy se not south , this would strengthen the easterly flow and down the line have a better chance of tapping into that much deeper cold.

[Cloud 10]

The JMA at 192 looks fairly healthy.

 

lol,Nick

 

Edited February 2, 2017 by Cloud 10

[Mucka]

6 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Lol!

that's a narrow margine for error at 216.

 

Yeah it is a fairly dry and short lived Easterly the ECM has modeled though and the poor initial orientation of the block means all the energy is going over the Top rather than getting any undercut. As far as actually having a good block and Easterly it is at the poor end of the scale for sure. In the context of the  winter we have had it would at least be a proper UK wide cold spell.

Hopefully it is just another variation on a theme and not a pointer toward where we are heading.

Ensembles may not be much use as it is still cold but the mean should give us a better idea of where it sits synoptically

Edited February 2, 2017 by Mucka

[TEITS]

After reading some of the comments I think some are suffering from premature reactions!

Comments such as "sinking scandi high" are completely wrong.

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

284 members online.  Is there a cold spell on the way?

ECM solid again.  I would love GEM to come off but I think that is being a bit greedy so I will accept the ECM version which is again showing colder conditions filtering in from the East durring next week as per the last few days outputs.

He'll I might even have a root round for my sledge wax this weekend!  

[ptow]

The one thing that I have noticed is that the real cold uppers are always 10 days away. That has been the case for the last 2/3 days. 

[Seasonality]

I like the look of day 10!