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Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

To prove steve's point, the last frame of the gem run has some snow falling across s England  with positive uppers !!  That's not too common

and the MJO analogues with those amplitudes would certainly come into play 

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

Funny, I wasnt so keen on UKMO at T144, a bit too much Azores High in there, risk of flattening things? Sure it's good for cold but not so sure about snow?

Other than that, epic output this evening so far. Nowhere near home and dry yet, though.

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Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire

An awful lot of posts have had to be deleted in the last couple of hours. I can understand some level of excitement but please have consideration for others. Thanks.

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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

Nice to see ECM takes Fridays potential storm and Sundays potential storm south of the UK, firstly we avoid the potentially damaging winds, and secondly the further south the lows the better the longer term evolution with the block

589378654577b_ec24.thumb.png.7ebfbabab0ac4ddb85d705bc199aaf81.png5893786707767_ec72.thumb.png.ab728c9379a140d308fd037b06f3fe97.png

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Posted
  • Location: Cwmbran. South East Wales 300ft ASL
  • Location: Cwmbran. South East Wales 300ft ASL
9 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

If this came of people would be digging them self out.:rofl:

IMG_0327.JPG

IMG_0328.JPG

Can you be so kind and explain the bottom image for a newbie like myself please?

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Posted
  • Location: Ramsey, Minnesota (USA)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms/Snow/Hail & Strong Winds
  • Location: Ramsey, Minnesota (USA)
3 minutes ago, WINTRY WALES said:

Can you be so kind and explain the bottom image for a newbie like myself please?

The chart is showing 850 hPa temperatures, which is roughly about 4,500 feet high. 

These link will show the conversion of hPa into height:

http://meteorologytraining.tpub.com/14269/css/14269_75.htm

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Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing rain heat waves
  • Location: Orpington Kent

South easterly wind

5 minutes ago, WINTRY WALES said:

Can you be so kind and explain the bottom image for a newbie like myself please?

 deep cold pool moving in of Eastern Europe that would give heavy snow and thunder snow deep snow moving in to south east England.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, chris55 said:

Well those purple colours approaching from France are ....absolutely bloody freezing...we have not seen air that cold since 1987!

Just to add to that though, a word of caution for newbies - although we haven't experienced upper air that cold for donkeys years, we have seen model output like that a few times.

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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Just to add to that though, a word of caution for newbies - although we haven't experienced upper air that cold for donkeys years, we have seen model output like that a few times.

Very good point Feb, this is one operational run at day 7+

If we take the ECM run as a comparison we can see the deep cold pool is nowhere to be seen at 144

ECMOPEU12_144_2.png

Edited by chris55
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

Poor ECM. Boooo

Yup, not what we wanted to see but it keeps feet on the ground I guess.

ECH1-144.GIF?02-0

 

The output is still positive as a whole. Suspect (hope) this will be on the mild side within ensembles.

Edited by Mucka
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Posted
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
  • Weather Preferences: Winter cold,snow and frost. Summer hot and thundery
  • Location: redcar,cleveland

ECM is not looking to good at 144hrs the low hasn't sent enough energy under the block and our arch nemesis the azores high has pounced cutting of our cold flow, more runs needed but a potential spanner in the works

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

Give the ecm a chance......the run hasn't finished yet....jeez.

 

True. Big picture it ain't that bad but in the context of GEM and UKMO it ain't great that's for sure.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

The gem is an outlier with that cold pool - yes it's on the table but the odds of the upper cold pool striking the uk are less than 30% and the odds of sub -15c uppers are less than 10% 

the ops are not upgrading in the short term  (up to day 6/7) so I would caution unwrapping the bunting just yet !

fascinating watching though !

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Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Location: Banbury
3 minutes ago, seabreeze86 said:

ECM is not looking to good at 144hrs the low hasn't sent enough energy under the block and our arch nemesis the azores high has pounced cutting of our cold flow, more runs needed but a potential spanner in the works

LOL

Its only at 168 , give the thing a chance

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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

We will need to see all the data before making any judgements on the ECM, ensembles will be interesting to see where the op sits with regards to the cold pool positioning. It would be very nice to see the UKMO ens as well but unfortunately we don't get that info. GFS 12z ens data highlighted the uncertainty, we would hope ECM is on the milder side of its ens suit at day 7 re the cold pool.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

All the outputs agree on the upstream pattern at T144hrs. Some differences with the block to the east but the main thing is that low heights will be pulled further to the nw   which won't put pressure on the block at T168hrs. We need to find a way to tap into some of the cold associated with that PV lobe to the ne.

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