Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..

[Harsh Climate]

4 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

I'm liking the look of the ENS at 150, a lot.

Me too! 5,6 and 9 are beautiful!

 

 

[Matthew.]

It feels like this battleground has the strong Westerly QBO on one side verses the zonal wind slowdown effect on the other. 

[swilliam]

6 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

I'm liking the look of the ENS at 150, a lot.

The mean charts at 180 look very good - -6 uppers on the east coast.

[Panayiotis]

GEM does have a mild bias as well, so those uppers could be even colder if it verified

[TEITS]

As some were fretting over the ensembles I saved yesterdays mean and im glad I did.

Yesterday 0Z mean for Feb 9th.

Todays mean for 9th Feb.

 

[Doctor96]

swilliam 

 

- 6 uppers is not good enough , that is cool not cold 

[Ali1977]

2 minutes ago, Doctor96 said:

seasonality   

 

In February mid  1979 i witnessed a massive amount of now in Newcastle at low level . The important fact is the sea temp is around 7 and that prevents it warming the air too much compared to say december when it is 10 . 

We need - 9  air to get snow though at most levels.  

We don't need -9 air from the east, DP are as important but -4/5 uppers can still bring sea level snow...

Edited February 2, 2017 by Ali1977

[mb018538]

2 minutes ago, Doctor96 said:

swilliam 

 

- 6 uppers is not good enough , that is cool not cold 

Upper air temps aren't the only thing that determine snow! It can snow with 850s below -5!

[swilliam]

2 minutes ago, Doctor96 said:

swilliam 

 

- 6 uppers is not good enough , that is cool not cold 

Are you serious?

[Harsh Climate]

43 minutes ago, Doctor96 said:

swilliam 

 

- 6 uppers is not good enough , that is cool not cold 

-5 uppers is more than sufficient if the feed of air is dry and from the continent. Other things like wet bulb temperature and height of the 0 degree isotherm also come into play.

[Southender]

4 minutes ago, Doctor96 said:

swilliam 

 

- 6 uppers is not good enough , that is cool not cold 

That is super for a mean and assuming all other factors are in place, then thats plenty cold enough for the white stuff!

[SMU]

Evening All

If carlsberg did weather runs then the UKMO/GEM blend tonight would be it-

both combined are simply the best runs in 144 T since 2010 ( perhaps Mar 13 at a push )

The UKMO has been rock steady Thus far & continues tonight & the GEM joined th party- infact When I saw the GEM 144 I actually had to double check that I hadnt reclicked the UKMO-

So x2 runs very close  -

then image of the decade !

 

if the UKMO varifies like that at 72 it would be fabulous- however for now, just cautious confidence that the Easterly flow here-

Remember the benchmark for battle grounds isnt so much the sub 0c isotherm- its the theta E temps- ideally sub 10c - So thats where to look on the GFS !!!!

Eyes down for the ECM....

s

[Doctor96]

harsh 

 

agree but if we get -9 all the other factors become secondary . If we do get snow at - 5 iit is  poor and does not stick 

 

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

8 minutes ago, Doctor96 said:

swilliam 

 

- 6 uppers is not good enough , that is cool not cold 

okay off battleground, but not convective off W/NW'ly, -10 needed, but frontal/continental, -2/3 can be enough

Edited February 2, 2017 by I remember Atlantic 252

[Polar Maritime]

Just sensible discussion on what the Models are showing please in here, And remember to use the model banter/moan thread for chit-chat as off topic posts will go missing.

Thanks please continue..

Edited February 2, 2017 by Polar Maritime

[nick sussex]

If the UK doesn't see some very cold temps and snow in the next few weeks then I'm going to call in a priest to perform an exorcism as there's clearly some dreadful entity stopping this.

The MJO forecasts continue to increase the amplitude of the signal with it moving into the favourable 7 and 8 phases.

Add to that  a weakened PV then surely even the UKs cold and snow force field will be breached!

 

[SMU]

12 minutes ago, Doctor96 said:

harsh 

 

agree but if we get -9 all the other factors become secondary . If we do get snow at - 5 iit is  poor and does not stick 

 

 

It doesnt work like that im afraid -

It was snowing at my house in +3 uppers because the continental surface cold & cloud deck was below the 850 line.

use the theta charts !

 

[feb1991blizzard]

5 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

It doesnt work like that im afraid -

It was snowing at my house in +3 uppers because the continental surface cold & cloud deck was below the 850 line.

use the theta charts !

 

That's rare though (+3 uppers), even if the surface is bitter, if the uppers are +ve you can get freezing rain.

[Allseasons-Si]

By 192 hrs nearly all ens go for an easterly fead bar 2,now that is bloody good if you ask me

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=192

and the holy grail goes to pert 13(2010 esk)....if only

Edited February 2, 2017 by Allseasons-si

[Summer Sun]

Short ens shows the Op on the warm side of the mean later next week

Full set should be out imminently

Edited February 2, 2017 by Summer Sun

[Summer Sun]

Full set now out 9th to 14th is the Op is on the warm side of the mean then the 15th to end it's on the colder side

Quite a few colder runs tonight with non above  +3 from the 8th to 12th ish

Edited February 2, 2017 by Summer Sun

[Nouska]

5 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Short ens shows the Op on the warm side of the mean later next week

Full set should be out imminently

I think it is better to use the one with climatology - in this instance, they are all below climatology from the 8th.

[chris55]

Momentum gaining in the ensemble suite for a proper cold period! Just look at the those cold runs for the 8th-12th getting on for 10C below the average! Although no clear clustering so nothing set yet, far from it.

London 12z

[Connor Bailey Degnan]

Looks to me like the best set of ensembles since the infamous March of 2013.

I might be wrong.

[Duane S.]

Blimey! If the ECM puts in a decent run then tonight's 12z suite must go down as one of the best for mid term prospects in many a while.

And the timing could just be perfect with today's MJO forecasts further cementing this.

We really would have to be ridiculously unlucky to miss out on, at the very least, a 3 - 5 day PC feed and heavy snow showers. Such are the possibilities at the other end of the snowy spectrum however, that unlike most times, I wouldn't bank that right now.