Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..

[TomDav]

nice wedge of high pressure near Greenland in FI

[Tonk1978]

The Atlantic is weak at this time of year, This block will take some shifting my friends.

 

[Mucka]

GFS has things further West again this morning which still means a slow burner but helps build confidence in worthwhile block developing.

UKMO looking well aligned with deep cold pool poised to travel West.

[booferking]

Great looking uk model chart 144hr almost there & gfs coming out is an upgrade on last night.

Were back baby.

Edited February 2, 2017 by booferking

[northwestsnow]

22 minutes ago, Mucka said:

GFS has things further West again this morning which still means a slow burner but helps build confidence in worthwhile block developing.

UKMO looking well aligned with deep cold pool poised to travel West.

Not seeing it mucka.

Azores high and low in the Atlantic look poorly orientated im afraid.

Gfs never really gets the cold in either out to day 10.

Hope your more positive analysis is proved correct mate..

* toddles off to moan thread..

Edited February 2, 2017 by northwestsnow

[booferking]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Not seeing it mucka.

Azores high and low in the Atlantic look poorly orientated im afraid.

Gfs never really gets the cold in either out to day 10.

Hope your more positive analysis is proved correct mate..

Definitely heading in the right road this morning again in my eyes so far gfs high is stronger compared to last night uk model almost there @144

[jvenge]

GFS is okay for the UK, but nothing historic. Rather than counting down, the "okay' seems to keep staying at T200 or so...

East Coast and maybe south east seems to have the biggest chance of seeing white stuff (based on GFS)

Edited February 2, 2017 by jvenge

[feb1991blizzard]

6 minutes ago, jvenge said:

GFS is okay for the UK, but nothing historic. Rather than counting down, the "okay' seems to keep staying at T180 or so...

East Coast and maybe south east seems to have the biggest chance of seeing white stuff.

The ensembles are a stonker though, a lot more bring in an Easterly of some description than not, this includes everything from a powerhouse Easterly to a lee Easterly to a surface cold one but a good few deliver sig snow.

[shane303]

As I said yesterday we need caution on next weeks possible cold as we see in this mornings run most of the cold air stays east of the uk with mostly average temperatures occurring unless your on the east coast. Meanwhile it's wet and wild in the south west this morning a very unsettled weekend to come with deep lows 

[jvenge]

I wonder if the ECM will move to GFS this morning. GFS has been fairly consistent with the starting point, with only disagreement on how far west it goes and the potency. Shape is fairly consistent, though.

ECM 0z and 12z yesterday were widely different. 

[mb018538]

21 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

The ensembles are a stonker though, a lot more bring in an Easterly of some description than not, this includes everything from a powerhouse Easterly to a lee Easterly to a surface cold one but a good few deliver sig snow.

 

Indeed they are - average now much lower, and a higher number of cold runs than yesterday. Trend in the right direction, appears that we just need the luck to run our way and everything to land right. UKMO looks good to my eye this morning!

[shane303]

A west east battle ground with the west just about winning I think with any real cold and wintry precipitation confined to the Far East of the Uk later next week. 

[The PIT]

Back track on the gFS however it was ahead of the ECM anyway in timing. UKMO playing a little towards an easterly.  Need too see it move towards the reliable time frame in the next few days.

[Ali1977]

This looks a better run already from the ECM with the positioning of the block at T96

Edited February 2, 2017 by Ali1977

[SMU]

Yes best ECM so far up to 96 - now much closer to the UKMO track of cold that its been depicting for x2 days over 144/120 now 96-

UKMO in the COL at 96 is the furthest west on cycle / wave 1 we have been---

cold!!

S

Edited February 2, 2017 by Steve Murr

[Seasonality]

Careful guys! The sun is too strong and uppers are too high in February for it to get cold!!!! 

Sorry, slipped into silly mode. Nice short range charts now on the UKMO and ECM. Cold really pushing west.

Edited February 2, 2017 by Seasonality

[Seasonality]

3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Yes best ECM so far up to 96 - now much closer to the UKMO track of cold that its been depicting for x2 days over 144/120 now 96-

UKMO in the COL at 96 is the furthest west on cycle / wave 1 we have been---

cold!!

S

Steve. If there were to be "corrections" at this range for 96 hours hence, would you think they will be westwards or eastwards.

[booferking]

4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Yes best ECM so far up to 96 - now much closer to the UKMO track of cold that its been depicting for x2 days over 144/120 now 96-

UKMO in the COL at 96 is the furthest west on cycle / wave 1 we have been---

cold!!

S

Thanks for clearing that up so ukmo is looking great as i thought ecm not far away now also.

[shane303]

Borderline cold with the alantic winning I think will be the likely outcome 

[jvenge]

1 minute ago, Seasonality said:

Steve. If there were to be "corrections" at this range for 96 hours hence, would you think they will be westwards or eastwards.

I'm not Steve, but if one assumes that lows are overdone as they barrel towards the UK, which they often are, that would help getting cold further west. All things being equal, which they aren't ;-)

[Ali1977]

11 minutes ago, shane303 said:

Borderline cold with the alantic winning I think will be the likely outcome 

Atlantic isn't winning on this run with heights over Northerm Scandy much better than the GFS - next frame is key to whether or not we can tap into the proper cold filtering round the HP

if the high sinks a little the continental flow will be a watered down event for late next week from a chilly but not freezing SE

Whilst not perfect the high sits tight and the v cold uppers start to hit our east coast , could be a great next few charts. 

Edited February 2, 2017 by Ali1977

[SMU]

Tough one

if you look at the ECM 120 it has moved a fair chunk west V yesterdays 144 although the time sync is 12 hours out-

The allignment at 120 of that cold pool over SE scandi needs to be a bit more SW alligned not W - & located a bit further south to help buffer the Atlantic -'

importantly another deeper cold pool is alligned well coming towards germany for cycle 2- 

so yes it could go further west ( the pattern ) we need about 300 miles-

144 is ok- as energy dropping south east so 168 will be better than yest- lets see how straight the flow is- my guess is ESE

S

 

Edited February 2, 2017 by Steve Murr

[SMU]

168 on the ECM is the best shaped scandi High ive seen for years....

cycle 3 a long way west which is very good-

Edited February 2, 2017 by Steve Murr

[Ali1977]

5 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Tough one

if you look at the ECM 120 it has moved a fair chunk west V yesterdays 144 although the time sync is 12 hours out-

The allignment at 120 of that cold pool over SE scandi needs to be a bit more SW alligned not W - & located a bit further south to help buffer the Atlantic -'

importantly another deeper cold pool is alligned well coming towards germany for cycle 2- 

so yes it could go further west ( the pattern ) we need about 300 miles-

144 is ok- as energy dropping south east so 168 will be better than yest- lets see how straight the flow is- my guess is ESE

S

 

Looks good steve at 168 with a well posisitioned high and a low in the central Med.

[Gowon]

9 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Atlantic isn't winning on this run with heights over Northerm Scandy much better than the GFS - next frame is key to whether or not we can tap into the proper cold filtering round the HP

Upgrades this morning with the pattern further west.

I'm loving that black anomaly again..

 

Edited February 2, 2017 by D.V.R