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Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

RIGHT, on a different note the weather models - not a bad set of 12zs but not ideal neither as the Scandy high seems to have sunk slightly as a generic statement. Not sure what the ECM will show, but I Defo haven't got my hopes up.

We need the lows coming into the UK over the weekend to move SE/E not NE, this will help the heights to stay towards Northen  Scandy.

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

Are there signs that the cold will build before it 'leaks'  west in full around mid month?  Signs of potential slow up showing but still overall looking very good with huge build up to E and NE developing.  UKMO has the slider at t144 punching further east but still disrupting with negative tilt.  Is GFS picking up that the main solution will eventually retrograde to a GHP?  

 

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Hemingfield, South Yorkshire (49m / 160ft ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Summer Sunshine / Winter Snow
  • Location: Hemingfield, South Yorkshire (49m / 160ft ASL)

It will get windy and wetter this weekend and then colder and hopefully snowier looking at the 12z runs this afternoon.....:cold:

20170201_174416.png

Edited by Polar Maritime
To remove deleted post.
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Posted
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

RIGHT, on a different note the weather models - not a bad set of 12zs but not ideal neither as the Scandy high seems to have sunk slightly as a generic statement. Not sure what the ECM will show, but I Defo haven't got my hopes up.

We need the lows coming into the UK over the weekend to move SE/E not NE, this will help the heights to stay towards Northen  Scandy.

I'm thinking it will be similar to the GFS. I can't see a repeat of this morning.

Can't post, cos on my phone, but the 12z temp mean is broadly similar to the 0z and 6z. Keeping the coldest of the air near Romania. Still a shot for the potent stuff to get further, but it's the outside outcome at the moment (current output).

For me, I either chase snow or a nice early Spring. Well and truly bored of ice days.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

I have found a slight irritation with the GFS 12hrs run and that's the shortwave which instead of going se sits there over the UK and phases with the upstream troughing between T144hrs and T168hrs.

This manages not to become a major spoiler because the upstream troughing sharpens up and absorbs this without too much eastwards pull to that troughing however you'd prefer to see this shortwave go se and not hang around.

That shortwave irritation delays the cold advection westwards, anytime you see a shortwave in this type of set up hanging around over the UK you have to view it as an unwanted complication. The only shortwave we want is one that cleanly ejects se'wards into say France, this can also help give a boost to low heights over southern Europe and help the cold westwards.

Edited by nick sussex
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
1 minute ago, Fozfoster said:

I think you like pain, Nick. lol

Its for the very reason I don't like pain that I want that shortwave to do one! lol clearing se great hanging around over the UK no we don't want to see that.

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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

It's fascinating looking at how the ensemble line graph regarding 850s ties in with the Op from the 12z

At face value the 850s look milder, but that (on the op at least) is due to the orientation of the block, rather than a raging Zonal flow incoming, small changes in the orientation could have quite significant influences on how the ensembles appear with temps at 850

850s line graph

graphe3_1000_312_139___.gif

Orientation of the block is key to the warmer 850s
240.png

And at day 7/8/9/10 and beyond the details of the block orientation will be open to change

In summary, and very cliche, many many more runs needed!

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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
14 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

I have found a slight irritation with the GFS 12hrs run and that's the shortwave which instead of going se sits there over the UK and phases with the upstream troughing between T144hrs and T168hrs.

This manages not to become a major spoiler because the upstream troughing sharpens up and absorbs this without too much eastwards pull to that troughing however you'd prefer to see this shortwave go se and not hang around.

That shortwave irritation delays the cold advection westwards, anytime you see a shortwave in this type of set up hanging around over the UK you have to view it as an unwanted complication. The only shortwave we want is one that cleanly ejects se'wards into say France, this can also help give a boost to low heights over southern Europe and help the cold westwards.

Nick, surely the shortwave pattern will not be "nailed" until we get down to 72/96 at least and although we may get a taste at around 120, at 168 its open to serious fluctuations.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
1 minute ago, chris55 said:

Nick, surely the shortwave pattern will not be "nailed" until we get down to 72/96 at least and although we may get a taste at around 120, at 168 its open to serious fluctuations.

Yes but you don't want the models to start playing with leaving that shortwave there. Because then you rely on the sharpness of the upstream troughing to absorb that without drama. My first rule of easterlies, less to go wrong is always better regardless of whether the models overcome that initially. We shouldn't assume everything will fall into place at the longer range, so stronger early foundations is the way to go and its also less stressful!

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

looks wrong? like the look of it though, with no washout Sunday low, being modeled on other models

ECM1-96.GIF?01-0

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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

At 120 ECM has a nicely orientated strong high lat block to the east, where we go from here.....

240 1.png

Edited by chris55
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

ECM v GFS and UKMO at t96 no deep low what so ever

ECM                                                              GFS                                                             UKMO

ECMOPEU12_96_1.pngGFSOPEU12_96_1.pngUKMOPEU12_96_1.png

 

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
4 minutes ago, chris55 said:

At 120 ECM has a good strong high lat block to the east, where we go from here.....

240 1.png

Too far east in my opinion. 144 should see us in the warm sector with a south-westerly flow.

Edited by mulzy
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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Just now, northwestsnow said:

My confidence has taken a huge knock after viewing the meto update and the ukmo this evening..

Was hoping to wake up to better news..

I

Feel a bit like that myself 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

My confidence has taken a huge knock after viewing the meto update and the ukmo this evening..

Was hoping to wake up to better news..

I

Meto text update not too bad with cold east - could mean battleground, they have never gone for a brutal Easterly though and its the ECM 144 thats has dented my confidence in one of those more so.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

Variations of a theme, until we get some consistency, no forecast at day 6/7 is certain

ECMOPEU12_144_1.png

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

It is laughable really, this morning the worry was that cold pool would be too slow and messy to get to us, the ECM this evening if anything is too quick and also too east for us.

ECM1-144.GIF?01-0

An easterly could still develop as the low disrupts but the chance of a cold and snowy easterly has gone for now if the ECM is right. That said the difference between this run and this mornings is stark. 

Oh look it does...

ECH1-216.GIF?01-0

Luckily we have little agreement.

UW144-21.GIF?01-18   gfs-0-144.png?12

The GFS probably looking the safest route though even that drags the cold pool more north west than west. The UKMO cold pool looks over developed and hence could be unpredictable in its movement.

Edited by Captain Shortwave
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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.

panic,panic???Hang on they're all going down the same cold route

 

C__Data_Users_DefApps_AppData_INTERNETEXPLORER_Temp_Saved Images_ECM1-72.gif

C__Data_Users_DefApps_AppData_INTERNETEXPLORER_Temp_Saved Images_UW72-21.gif

C__Data_Users_DefApps_AppData_INTERNETEXPLORER_Temp_Saved Images_gfs-0-72.png

Edited by winterof79
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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

IMO we have a higher chance of a cold easterly landing with the high centred to far north, rather than to far south (in the mid range) a sinking high has little chance of delivering meaningful corrections, whereas corrections west are slightly easier to achieve.

Greece/Turkey nice and warm

 ECMOPEU12_144_2.png

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Not surprising - we've just got a milder OP instead of the cold ones we've had for the last few (remember mild still outweighs cold on the ensembles!). As the days get ever closer we will find out what way this will go. The met can't even forecast Friday's low with confidence yet, so what chance do they have at a week away??!

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