Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..

[supernova]

This morning's GFS similar to yesterday's Para with it all going pear shaped at about 100hrs. We simply don't get enough energy running SE under the block, as shown by the ECM and UKMO. TBH I'm just thankful we've got the chance to latch onto another shot at cold so early in Feb....when I caught up on the model thread over the weekend it was all doom and gloom with about as much action as you'd expect in a subtitled documentary about the moisture content of paint. That said, much as I love an Easterly (Lincolnshire rarely benefits memorably from anything coming from the North West), we've been down this path so many times before, it's important to remain optimistically cautious for at least another three to four days and hope that in the meantime we can find cross model agreement. At least the UKMO is on board with the ECM this time, that's a massive positive, I don't prefer any model over the other but this winter in particular the UKMO has been excellent. Remember also, however, that it was barely a fortnight ago when the GFS led us back from another ECM goose chase at about the same time frame we are currently watching with great interest. Get your sledges out the loft by all means, but for goodness sake don't polish the runners and UNDER NO CIRCUMSTANCES TELL ANYBODY! Fingers crossed. BTW, If this one goes Pete Tong I volunteer to organise next year's Netweather outing to Lapland. Northern Lights anyone?

 

Edited February 1, 2017 by supernova
I need new reading glasses.

[frosty ground]

1 minute ago, supernova said:

GFS Para follows similar evolution to it's outdated brother with it all going pear shaped at about 100hrs. We simply don't get enough energy running SE under the block, as shown by the ECM and UKMO. TBH I'm just thankful we've got the chance to latch onto another shot at cold so early in Feb....when I caught up on the model thread over the weekend it was all doom and gloom with about as much action as you'd expect in a subtitled documentary about the moisture content of paint. That said, much as I love an Easterly (Lincolnshire rarely benefits memorably from anything coming from the North West), we've been down this path so many times before, it's important to remain optimistically cautious for at least another three to four days and hope that in the meantime we can find cross model agreement. At least the UKMO is on board with the ECM this time, that's a massive positive, I don't prefer any model over the other but this winter in particular the UKMO has been excellent. Remember also, however, that it was barely a fortnight ago when the GFS led us back from another ECM goose chase at about the same time frame we are currently watching with great interest. Get your sledges out the loft by all means, but for goodness sake don't polish the runners and UNDER NO CIRCUMSTANCES TELL ANYBODY! Fingers crossed. BTW, If this one goes Pete Tong I volunteer to organise next year's Netweather outing to Lapland. Northern Lights anyone?

Is that not yesterdays run?

[Tristrame]

3 minutes ago, jvenge said:

I'm not sure what is there to be taken as gospel? Outliner compared to the ENS? Check. Majority milder? (has to be, if the Op is a very cold outlander) Check. Therefore unlikely to verify? Check (Unlikely is not a "will not" or "no chance", so no mention of gospel.

 

Ok let's rephrase for clarity in what I said,don't take low probability as gospel then

Its been thus all winter 

[TEITS]

Some strange posts especially from MVH. Im not going to explain why again but the way some use the ensembles is wrong in my opinion especially when we have blocking to the NE and a possible E,ly.

Lets start by addressing some of the comments that the ECM Op is likely to be wrong.

The ECM/UKMO have been extremely consistent at this timeframe. So why we you prefer to go with the ensembles which have the starting data altered, ran at lower resolution?

Anyone who has anything negative to say about the models this morning clearly were not around in the 1980s. Im not saying a big freeze is on its way but at the moment these charts have me drooling.

 

[supernova]

14 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Is that not yesterdays run?

Apologies Frosty Ground, post amended accordingly.

Edited February 1, 2017 by supernova

[craigore]

Can anyone tell me why my bbc weather app is showing temperatures of 8c  in 10 days time when the 3 main mods are all showing a cold easterly by then..??

There must be a lot of uncertainty or bbc have other info that doesn't agree why what we are seeing..

Don't normally post in mods but am confused by the Ramping & what's being forcast..

[bluearmy]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

ECM-

UKMO-

Not day 6 !

[The Beast From The East]

14 minutes ago, TEITS said:

Some strange posts especially from MVH. Im not going to explain why again but the way some use the ensembles is wrong in my opinion especially when we have blocking to the NE and a possible E,ly.

Lets start by addressing some of the comments that the ECM Op is likely to be wrong.

The ECM/UKMO have been extremely consistent at this timeframe. So why we you prefer to go with the ensembles which have the starting data altered, ran at lower resolution?

Anyone who has anything negative to say about the models this morning clearly were not around in the 1980s. Im not saying a big freeze is on its way but at the moment these charts have me drooling.

 

What a great post as usual from one of my favourite members in net weather. Always loved your post. You are so right about when you say the part about the models and what they are showing and if you were around in the 80s. We had these setups and in February before, and 91. Days and days of snow and daytime temperatures of -8 or lower not to mention the wind chill. The models might change, upgrades or downgrades we just don't know yet but based on the models and what they are showing might happen then we would get plenty of the white stuff and it would stick around during Feb.

 

 

[Ali1977]

Only at T96 but the block looks a fair bit further west to me, this could be a good thing - also the the Jet is digging further South.  

This looks a good run, although still early.

[supernova]

06 GFS better alignment of Scandi high and slightly more progressive with increased energy undercutting at 96hrs. Small steps but encouraging.

Edited February 1, 2017 by supernova

[Summer Sun]

Met still going for a colder period later this month

 

[Ali1977]

2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Met still going for a colder period later this month

 

If the ECM was correct it would be cold next week, is this classed as mid/late Feb I wonder.  Looking good for a colder Feb though, that sounds good to me - better than mild with rain like today thats for sure.

[Methuselah]

So here we are, then...A new month and unsurprisingly:

The building-blocks are all in place, for a real beast-from-the-east, the models are all singing from the same hymn-sheet and, as is always the case: the trend is our friend...

That said, I'll believe it when I see it!

[Ali1977]

High much better located on the 6z, and like the ECM the cold pool looks like its heading in mid-late next week, the cold pool a big upgrade too from the 00z.

All very good so far

Edit - at 180 the cold pool hits the East coast, and it looks like the Jet is about to dig south in the Atlantic, can't post the chart but it looks fantastic and we just need a Siberian reload now.

Edited February 1, 2017 by Ali1977

[snowray]

If on the Atlantic would relent, madenning to watch. Some very deep areas of LP holding everything up.

[snowray]

At last getting there, like watching paint dry! Colder run coming up.

[TEITS]

Another cold outlier on its way.

A stunning chart.

[Ali1977]

6 minutes ago, TEITS said:

Another cold outlier on its way.

A stunning chart.

Looks like the GFS listened when I asked for a Siberian reload....I kind of expected a downgrade. not a fantastic upgrade.

Infact another BOOOOOOOM, what a great run....snow and bitter beast by next weekend.

 

Steve Murr special looking at this - is it classed as a sausage

Edited February 1, 2017 by Ali1977

[Tristrame]

29 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Met still going for a colder period later this month

 

I always wonder when Ian summarises,Is he referring mainly to his own forecast area though when interpreting what the U.K. Met office think

West/SW England would not be getting convective sea streamers from an easterly 

Ergo mainly dry and cold 

 

 

[Frank Trough]

3 minutes ago, TEITS said:

Another cold outlier on its way.

A stunning chart.

just need to get it to t+72 now....just five days to wait.

[TEITS]

-13C upper temps hitting kent coast.

Snow showers pushing well inland, probably as far as Wales.

[snowray]

 Lovely run, boom boom... Nationwide snow by D8/9

[Daniel*]

Absolutely stunning. 

[bluearmy]

Just a note to some of you chasing the deepest cold pool - if you want a -11/-15 chunk of uppers to get here then you don't want to see a segment of vortex around -16/-20c hurtling west towards the North Sea - it won't get here as a shortwave will develop ahead of it as it reaches the sea and it will deflect north west 

to advert that pool which would bring decent snowfall (-10/-15c) you need a cold pool to bleed off that really cold segment and advert west preferably across the land mass rather than the baltic and North Sea  as that will also moderate those uppers.

it really is a tightrope walk to get that cold enough cold pool this far 

to avoid confusion re cold pools - whilst we are also thinking about uppers, best to view them on the heights charts as those cut off blue/purple areas rotating clockwise around the blocking. 

the ecm op run this morning a great example of how the cold pool can't get west beyond Norway as it hits the North Sea and the 06z gfs a great example of the safest way to get the cold pool this far as it heads west across Germany and the Low Countries with a short sea track to get here 

 

Edited February 1, 2017 by bluearmy

[Seasonality]

A cold run for the UK this morning. Anyone who moans about this evolution needs to change their expectations. Looking snowy too.

Edited February 1, 2017 by Seasonality