Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..

[jvenge]

3 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

Yes, so much variation day to day it is funny really. In the shorter term what I'm interested in is that the colder block over Europe is still holding from Central Europe and further east. Last week it said Warsaw would have temperatures of 7 degrees C from mild wind blowing in from the Atlantic. Hasn't happened, still all that horrible old snow and ice on the ground and the "warm up" has again been limited to a couple of days where the maximum just pops above freezing (ie pretty average for the time of year). At least now there'll be a top up of snow tomorrow so everything will look a bit cleaner.

Can be. Day 6-10 hasn't really handled itself well over the past few weeks. I'm not entirely convinced about output from Monday yet, let alone beyond that.

[IDO]

We can look at the D10 charts from the big three:

What is obvious is again the ECM propensity to blow up heights, so hard to accept that run as being repeated let alone the D10 outcome. GEM and GFS are similar but the GEFS mean at D10 much worse for cold, so again the ops will need to drag the ens in quickly, where as the trend is the other way at the moment:

London ens   ECM 12z: 

We know the ECM op has little support the last few runs as it is notorious for finding the outlier solution in these setups.Need the ens to start to move towards it otherwise its only a matter of time before we see the op move towards the ens.

The overview is that we lose the trop Pacific wave by around D8 and the PV on the GEFS now heading back to Siberia by D16. That to my eye means not a blocked pattern so any cold spell is likely to be transient and it also suggests MLB rather than HLB after around D10, so UK high again? What i dont see is the ECM D8 euro wave being even close to the outcome (no GEFS close):

Easy to conclude that ECM is as usual not very instructive when there is some height building and best to ignore at the moment. The GEM and GFS look closer to reality though they need to garner support from their ens as they are close to the best case scenarios.

[Frank Trough]

Looking at the output in the nearer term the GFS shows some pretty concerning storms battering the south Friday through sunday. Damaging winds and high rainfall totals:

 

 

The Euros less vigorous although ECM still looks rough Friday into saturday:

 

I think it's probably safe to say that there is the potential for some "poor travelling conditions" and "disruption to weekend plans" for southern parts at least. I think flooding could be a real issue.

 

And then it may or may not get cold....not interested now unless it actually snows where I live. And that is ALWAYS a tall order.

[Paul_1978]

Some people are being far too negative this morning. We've been waiting for this kind of model output for weeks and when we finally get it (and consistently over a few days) then somehow there's some negativity around. 

I think recent output, and this morning's, is fantastic if it's cold and snow you're after. 

[jvenge]

5 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

Some people are being far too negative this morning. We've been waiting for this kind of model output for weeks and when we finally get it (and consistently over a few days) then somehow there's some negativity around. 

I think recent output, and this morning's, is fantastic if it's cold and snow you're after. 

Well, GFS not so much (if in the UK). UKMO doesn't go out so far, so an uncertainty, but looks positive. ECM is so different from the 12z yesterday, that it is rightly taken with a truck load of salt, even though it is eye candy.

I can't believe I'm saying this, but let's seek answers from the 06z 

[Guest]

6 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

Some people are being far too negative this morning. We've been waiting for this kind of model output for weeks and when we finally get it (and consistently over a few days) then somehow there's some negativity around. 

I think recent output, and this morning's, is fantastic if it's cold and snow you're after. 

Problem is the same every time there is a cold spell, if the models continue with more of the same today by the time the pub run comes out some folk in here will already be looking for the break down and return of mild SW and gales.

Same as ever lets get the cold in first then worry about how much snow when and where etc etc.

These are the best few days of output we have had this winter lets enjoy watching it unfold and if it does go the way of the Pear then so be it nothing any of us can do to control whats gonna happen anyways so why get so hung up about. i for one think that by 12z runs Friday we will have the main 3 models all nailing the pattern down for us coldies lets hope it is what we want to see and not another false dawn.

[jvenge]

The mighty Canadian GEPS parallel ensemble mean. It isn't that far away from the latest GEFS mean, to be fair.

[Scandinavian High.]

10 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

Some people are being far too negative this morning. We've been waiting for this kind of model output for weeks and when we finally get it (and consistently over a few days) then somehow there's some negativity around. 

I think recent output, and this morning's, is fantastic if it's cold and snow you're after. 

Best model watching all winter for cold and snow .

[northwestsnow]

Ecm 00z mean (fwiw) looks good to me, scandy high and low pressure across Europe, plus disrupting Atlantic..

[blizzard81]

5 minutes ago, jvenge said:

The mighty Canadian GEPS parallel ensemble mean. It isn't that far away from the latest GEFS mean, to be fair.

People may shoot me down here but I personally think this will be a close but no cigar. There are some worrying trends this morning. The ecm looks complicated and messy and could easily end up where the cold never gets any further west than Denmark. The ukmo is a step backwards from yesterday's runs. If it had carried on from yesterday's clean runs then we would have been in an Easterly by 144hrs on this morning's run. Just not buying it at the moment but let's see what today's runs bring. 

[jvenge]

7 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

People may shoot me down here but I personally think this will be a close but no cigar. There are some worrying trends this morning. The ecm looks complicated and messy and could easily end up where the cold never gets any further west than Denmark. The ukmo is a step backwards from yesterday's runs. If it had carried on from yesterday's clean runs then we would have been in an Easterly by 144hrs on this morning's run. Just not buying it at the moment but let's see what today's runs bring. 

For sure it isn't nailed on by any stretch of the imagination. I personally wouldn't be surprised to see that cold heading towards Italy and sinking lower towards Turkey. Just seen it so many times so far this season.

On another note, although I can't see the individual ECM members, so I'm trying to guesstimate from the mean, I'd say ECM Op has reasonable support at around T144, but after that, it would seem to be on the very cold side of things for the UK.

Fun to watch it unfold though.

[winterof79]

14 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

People may shoot me down here but I personally think this will be a close but no cigar. There are some worrying trends this morning. The ecm looks complicated and messy and could easily end up where the cold never gets any further west than Denmark. The ukmo is a step backwards from yesterday's runs. If it had carried on from yesterday's clean runs then we would have been in an Easterly by 144hrs on this morning's run. Just not buying it at the moment but let's see what today's runs bring. 

UKMO 144

ECM 144

GFS 144 so it is a slower evolution

 

Still only one winner when DENSE cold is in situ if you run the sequence from 192z

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=192&mode=0

 

Edited February 1, 2017 by winterof79

[Ali1977]

Around 50 percent of EPS go cold, but the Op is at the cold end of those members - the long range might give a better idea on the block holding or not.

If I was to hazard a guess at day 8 from this mornings runs I'd say it will be blocked, and cold under a slack flow from the E/SE, however at the minute I'm not convinced on a raging beast and snow just yet,  I don't think the Atlantic will be involved however.

Edited February 1, 2017 by Ali1977

[Man With Beard]

ECM ensembles this morning - positives and negatives. On the positive side, low pressure less likely to stall to the SW. Negative side, the high is too far east - still needing the Azores High to go over the top of the Atlantic low. Something to work with, though!

[winterof79]

Edited February 1, 2017 by winterof79

[mb018538]

Still  plenty of milder options that could come off too. I guess it all depends on how much of the cold pool can get advected our way around that scandi high. If it doesn't make it, we will end up with nothing. All knife edge stuff!

[winterof79]

So as it stands this is our worst case longer range scenario

A disrupting/sliding against the block situation, either way it will not be mild and I think the METs forecast will be edging toward that too.

[Paul]

If you're wondering where your recent post is, it'll be over in the model banter thread where several posts have been moved to just now, since last I checked, a discussion about whether February is a winter month(!) has got absolutely zero to do with the model output. 

[Summer Sun]

Matt Hugo on the ECM 00z

 

[Ali1977]

5 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Matt Hugo on the ECM 00z

 

MMM, this isn't great news.  Lets hope the Op is leading the way, and today isn't downgrading all the options.  I still can't see anything Zonal or Mild yet.

I think we knew the 00Z EC is unlikely, but the last few runs have had cold options, so it's by no way an outlier with regards some form of colder weather from the East.

Edited February 1, 2017 by Ali1977

[jvenge]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

MMM, this isn't great news.  Lets hope the Op is leading the way, and today isn't downgrading all the options.  I still can't see anything Zonal or Mild yet.

It was expected though, considering what the 12z was yesterday. It's good to get those clarifications from Matt to save us guessing too much from ensemble means. Even though in this case most people guessed correctly from it.

 

[Tristrame]

1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

Matt Hugo on the ECM 00z

 

No disrespect to Matt but Its wintry output depended on items happening in the nearer term which are chopping and changing run to run 

so I'd not take the above as gospel 

Its been thus all winter 

[Tim Bland]

IMO ensembles are not of great concern as the OPs are (mostly) all singing the Easterly hymn sheet.  We have also seen an increase in the number of cold options.  what we are also seeing from the Ops is wild swings in synoptics between outputs but they mostly all lead to cold with the chance of snow.  Take the last few ECM outputs for example.  I expect the run to run swings to continue but I expect / hope that they all continue to show that all roads lead to Rome !  

[jvenge]

5 minutes ago, Tristrame said:

No disrespect to Matt but Its wintry output depended on items happening in the nearer term which are chopping and changing run to run 

so I'd not take the above as gospel 

Its been thus all winter 

I'm not sure what is there to be taken as gospel? Outliner compared to the ENS? Check. Majority milder? (has to be, if the Op is a very cold outlander) Check. Therefore unlikely to verify? Check (Unlikely is not a "will not" or "no chance", so no mention of gospel.

 

[Weathizard]

The GEFS have little to no interest in anything sustained from the East throughout its entire ENS suite, the ECM whilst nice to see once again isn't backed by its vast suite and so must be looked as a very low likely outcome. Given the lack of support from elsewhere we must be realistic and say 25% chance of an easterly, being realistic.