Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..

[Ice Day]

Morning all, just a quick post before work.  Beauty at 192, how about those uppers!!!

[Ali1977]

2 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Now that's a boom 

 

Very cold air in but not sure how it'll pan out for longevity , the Scandy high has rotated N/S which isn't ideal , however the Atlantic isnt coming in so it's a strange one. Unsure where the next 2 frames will leave us - I'd say still v cold.

Edited February 1, 2017 by Ali1977

[Seasonality]

There we go UK. Cold bomb has arrived.

[Gowon]

Just now, MR EXTREMES said:

ecm brrrrr and much much better than yesterdays 

Incredible!.

 

[Mucka]

2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Very cold air in but not sure how it'll pan out for longevity , the Scandy high has rotated N/S which isn't ideal , however the Atlanticisnt coming in so it's a strange one.

Yeah actuality won't look like this but the Atlantic trough should disrupt and slide under the cold air without the high.

Edited February 1, 2017 by Mucka

[MR EXTREMES]

7 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Very cold air in but not sure how it'll pan out for longevity , the Scandy high has rotated N/S which isn't ideal , however the Atlantic isnt coming in so it's a strange one. Unsure where the next 2 frames will leave us - I'd say still v cold.

id been inclined to think that we could end up with a greenland iceland block,

with pressure lower into europe.

still more runs needed though we could get close but no cigar.

if this is not stratospheric warming induced then i dread to think what more we could come up with.

and a undercut at 216 ecm

Edited February 1, 2017 by MR EXTREMES

[Mucka]

Very cold and snowy chart.If only...

[mulzy]

Decent 0z ECMWF run but I think it's gone shortwave crazy in FI.  Let's see how things pan out this evening...

[MR EXTREMES]

still cold not sure about the short wave going north up the north sea then into the arctic.

beyond 240 possibly displaced azores heights into the atlantic.

Edited February 1, 2017 by MR EXTREMES

[Mucka]

I'd say ECM loses the plot a bit from 144/168 with that embedded cold trough doing a loop the loop around the Scandi high but very encouraging out to 144.

[terrier]

Well some nice looking output from the ukmo and ecm this morning but until we get cross model agreement I remain very cautious indeed. As we all have seen this winter until all the models are in agreement we should remain cautious.

[MR EXTREMES]

ao looking like deep neg values al la 09/10 

mjo is on the move 7/8

 

Edited February 1, 2017 by MR EXTREMES

[Matthew.]

Going by the ECM the 10th Feb is one to go in the diary for building a snowman

[Ali1977]

Strange ECM from 168, and definitely not one that's worth basing a forecast on - however cold weather looks very likely from that. The EPS out at 0830 will be interesting, I don't think the Op will be a cold outlier , especially beyond 192. 

[winterof79]

You have to remember that strange features will always develop in our location when deep cold is involved.Only a few years ago a low moved UP the North sea out of the Benalux into very cold air producing Orographic snowfall.

Someone may be able to find it in the archives.Met now saying colder by Sunday.

GOT IT Jan 2013 similar initial set up low in Atlantic.Edit not convinced this was the one but who cares

 

 

Edited February 1, 2017 by winterof79

[Singularity]

Key differences out east in the 4-6 day range; ECM and UKMO along the flow well for draining the deep cold from the polar vortex lobe over W. Asia, but GFS and HEM don't, with the trough associate with the vortex able to hang on to the deep cold and grow larger. Eventually the cold heads west due to the continued build of HP to the NE by the negatively tilted Atlantic trough. It's a messier outcome although the sliding lows could still have played out better.

Even ECM is keen on some small disturbances making things complicated - but such features sometimes become widespread snow events so it's a case of how much are you willing to gamble with? To be honest I'd be okay with a cleaner outcome with deep cold and powder snow. Playing it safe

[Duane S.]

No point nit-picking at the details, they are irrelevant at this stage. What is relevant is that the 00z suite very much says a big yes to a proper cold snowy spell.

A heck of a lot is in our favour with this one, by far the most favourable set of background signal + chart outputs all winter. But, of course, there are many ways in which this could be curtailed, it is still relatively early days, this is the UK, and how many times have we seen defeat being snatched from on the jaws of victory in these scenarios. 

Its nice to at least have a ticket for the raffle though, so often at this stage of the winter we are desperately scrabbling around for shreds of optimism with the Atlantic fully fuelled up.

[The Beast From The East]

Well lovely looking charts from the UKMO and the ECM and this chart is only about 8 days away, it shows all the cold air backing west towards us BUT............. I'm not going to be telling any of my friends or family this time round. Done that to many times this winter and ended up with egg on my face plus the minute I do tell them I jinx it lol. We are due some luck and looking at the latest models I think were in for a good shot this time round my net weather friends 

[jvenge]

GEFS have backed off a little on a potent easterly, even those reaching central Europe, compared to some of the runs from yesterday. ECM is also laughably different from the  12z yesterday. It's a pity we can't see its members, but I will have a look at the mean later and likely Matt Hugo will give a twitter update as to where it sits.

The UKMO is either being consistent or stubborn ;-) Or, it could just be benefiting from not going out so far. Some fun model watching ahead though.

[mb018538]

What a crazy post. February is NOT a spring month. We are very much still in the depths of winter at the moment, and this potential cold spell is at a great time.

That's like saying we can't get a hot day in August because the end of June has more sunlight available for heating. We all know the warmest day in summer is always a month or so after the longest day, and the coldest portion of winter is nearly always a while after the shortest day.

[bluearmy]

Found a very comfortable spot on my fence .............

some implausible output last few op runs 

as steve says, find a match ! 

[Seasonality]

1 minute ago, jvenge said:

GEFS have backed off a little on a potent easterly, even those reaching central Europe, compared to some of the runs from yesterday. ECM is also laughably different from the  12z yesterday. It's a pity we can't see its members, but I will have a look at the mean later and likely Matt Hugo will give a twitter update as to where it sits.

The UKMO is either being consistent or stubborn ;-) Or, it could just be benefiting from not going out so far. Some fun model watching ahead though.

Yes, so much variation day to day it is funny really. In the shorter term what I'm interested in is that the colder block over Europe is still holding from Central Europe and further east. Last week it said Warsaw would have temperatures of 7 degrees C from mild wind blowing in from the Atlantic. Hasn't happened, still all that horrible old snow and ice on the ground and the "warm up" has again been limited to a couple of days where the maximum just pops above freezing (ie pretty average for the time of year). At least now there'll be a top up of snow tomorrow so everything will look a bit cleaner.

[northwestsnow]

So as expected ecm sides with ukmo- the tricky part is still outside the reliable though so once the 144 becomes 96 we can have decent confidence.

The modelling of the atlantic energy at 120 - 144 is absolutely critical for the UK.As we see with the projected uppers from gfs and ecm, chalk and cheese.

Fwiw ecm would bring a very cold 3 or 4 days with snowcover for many and very cold nights following the initial blast.Plenty of time to build a snowman! 

As always the meto update today and over the next 48 hours will be uber important.i for one will immediately smell a rat if we dont see a serious upgrade in that text today.

If ukmo and by proxy ecm dets are on the right page then they have to mention the posibilty of a cold easterly this time next week.And i dont mean low probabilty either..

[northwestsnow]

5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Found a very comfortable spot on my fence .............

some implausible output last few op runs 

as steve says, find a match ! 

ECM-

UKMO-

[Frosty.]

I would very happily settle for this days 8/9 & 10 on Ecm 00z thanks very much..cracking Euro output this morning and its all about the general trend at the moment rather than specific detail..hope we are in for a very cold spell during this month!