Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..

[lassie23]

Just now, Djdazzle said:

Will we get sucked in again? Last time, we have great ECM and GFS charts, virtual full ensemble agreement and support from anomalies - and it never happened!

I can see it all vanishing and the UK stuck with gloom, it's been the pattern all winter, despite what the models promise.

[Ali1977]

Winter could be in as early as mid next week looking at the pub run.

[The Weather Dragon]

4 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

I can see it all vanishing and the UK stuck with gloom, it's been the pattern all winter, despite what the models promise.

Your spot on there mate - most sensible post all evening - follow the pattern 

[Weathizard]

1 minute ago, The Weather Dragon said:

Your spot on there mate - most sensible post all evening - follow the pattern 

What has gone before is irrelevant, weather has no memory

[Ice Day]

2 minutes ago, The Weather Dragon said:

I'm not getting sucked in at all - looking to get the cold synoptics in at under 120z - same old rampers - same old story - will they learn, i doubt it.

It's the model discussion thread; used to discuss what the models are showing funnily enough.  You should try it sometime!

A very interesting chart at 156.  You would assume fun and games would follow?

 

[Catacol]

2 hours ago, Frosty. said:

Rightly we (coldies) should be cautiously optimistic about FI but we need the experts on-board and they are not at the moment..in the meantime it looks generally unsettled and on the mild side with spells of wind and rain pushing in from the w / sw and potentially a spell of very wet and windy weather from the southwest during the coming weekend..one to watch.

To be fair you've got Chio waking from a winter slumber talking up the potential... and Tamara doing a steady systems check. That's 2 big guns.... and others may follow.....

I'm staying quiet for now. Fingers burned a bit this year, and while I posted a while back suggesting mid Feb would be our last chance winter saloon I'm not quite ready to kick open those saloon doors and order the whisky....

[lassie23]

Just now, Weathizard said:

What has gone before is irrelevant, weather has no memory

It does have repeating patterns though, which the models eventually concede to.

[Nouska]

The ECM 360 hour MSLP ensemble mean is an interesting chart as in there appears to be no connector to the Atlantic on the isobars - if I'm reading correctly, the east is the player and the spread for the south is quite low at fifteen days in the future.

Edited January 31, 2017 by Nouska

[Djdazzle]

2 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

It's the model discussion thread; used to discuss what the models are showing funnily enough.  You should try it sometime!

A very interesting chart at 156.  You would assume fun and games would follow?

 

I was just urging caution. Yes, the charts are looking promising, but we all know how poor the models have been this Winter.

[Chris K]

10 minutes ago, The Weather Dragon said:

I'm not getting sucked in at all - looking to get the cold synoptics in at under 120z - same old rampers - same old story - will they learn, i doubt it.

I can understand the frustration but just because it hasn't gone well on previous occasions, does not mean this time it will do the same.

Most are just commenting on what the models are showing. Yes, perhaps we need to wait until something gets to the more reliable time frame, but calling people "the same old rampers" and "will they learn" is a tad harsh in my opinion. It's part of the winter roller coaster and this thread would be boring without it!

Edited January 31, 2017 by Chris K

[Catacol]

1 hour ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

GEM says no inside T240. Still need to be cautious until output is showing within 96T.

The GEM has been poor all winter. The big 4 (and I include the JMA in that list) all have a much better profile at 192 and an easterly influence. GEM is a poor 5th in my book.

[cheshire snow]

2 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

I was just urging caution. Yes, the charts are looking promising, but we all know how poor the models have been this Winter.

But they have not been smashed to pieces by a SSW

C.S. 

[Nick F]

8 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Will we get sucked in again? Last time, we had great ECM and GFS charts, virtual full ensemble agreement and support from anomalies - and it never happened!

This time round the atmospheric  drivers for change are a lot more favourable, namely  the MJO coherently moving into colder phase 7/8, the best MJO propagation we've seen this winter, with enough amplification to induce HLBs rather than MLBs. The MJO forcing concurrent with planetary wave number 2 over Scandi/Svalbard propagating up from the trop will mean the stratosphere PV will be in an increasingly weakened state as we head through early Feb too. Could go wrong if the HLB doesn't position right, but more background support this time.

[bluearmy]

1 hour ago, Man With Beard said:

Thoughts @bluearmy?

Well, I did sort of say I would wait to see if ECM 12z went for it. Quite surprised and still of the opinion that we won't get that deep cold this far. 

Given the overall set up, surprised to see only a few sub zero daytime max members in holland in the extended period 

[snowray]

You couldn't make it up, T144, cold air set for a direct hit, T192, clipping the east coast, T216, thats as far as it gets, heading south!

[northwestsnow]

At work im guessing the lack of comments on 18z suggest a bad run?

[nick sussex]

Similar run from the GFS 18hrs run upto T192hrs but I think the issue here is the big flabby high. Generally you want the smaller high with the centre over Scandi and not this one which is too big for its own good.

 

[bluearmy]

11 minutes ago, Nouska said:

The ECM 360 hour MSLP ensemble mean is an interesting chart as in there appears to be no connector to the Atlantic on the isobars - if I'm reading correctly, the east is the player and the spread for the south is quite low at fifteen days in the future.

I believe it shows higher mslp anomolies to the north and lower to our south. The isobars at that range will almost always revert to climatology. 

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

2 minutes ago, The Weather Dragon said:

I'm all for ramping but let's get into the semi-reliable time frame first - that's sensible - isn't it ?

Who is ramping?  The posts on here this evening have been by and large sensible discussion looking at the possibilities of some cold weather?  Nobody has said we are nailed on for cold as far as I can see?

FWIW however I happen to think that we have the best shot at a decent cold spell than we have had all winter coming up looking at today's model output.....

[MattTarrant]

2 minutes ago, snowray said:

You couldn't make it up, T144, cold air set for a direct hit, T192, clipping the east coast, T216, thats as far as it gets, heading south!

To expand on your point and Nicks, I considered the GFS to be overplaying the Lows in the Atlantic which is why a greater fight is happening!

[joggs]

1 minute ago, snowray said:

You couldn't make it up, T144, cold air set for a direct hit, T192, clipping the east coast, T216, thats as far as it gets, heading south!

Trough out west not sharp enough to undercut hence no connection to the east low heights and Italy etc get buried. .....again lol.

[Ali1977]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

At work im guessing the lack of comments on 18z suggest a bad run?

It's not a bad run, still a Scandy high and split PV at day 9. FI could be good as a big shot of WAA is heading for Greenland from NE Canada.

[northwestsnow]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

It's not a bad run, still a Scandy high and split PV at day 9. FI could be good as a big shot of WAA is heading for Greenland from NE Canada.

Cheers ali  im on nights so i will have my break at 3.30am to watch the 00z run come out..

[The Weather Dragon]

Anyway in the shorter (sensible) term - still much uncertainty regarding the track and intensity of Fridays potential storm - could be quite significant for parts of the south/south west 

[Ali1977]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

It's not a bad run, still a Scandy high and split PV at day 9. FI could be good as a big shot of WAA is heading for Greenland from NE Canada.

Crazy NH at day 10....imagine working that one out as a weather forecast.