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Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch

i see to-night  if  the  gfs  is  right  deep  into  FI    the  u.k.could  get snow from feb 8  onwards  !!!  dont tell the  express!!!

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=6

 

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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
3 minutes ago, booferking said:

Ecm mean not to shabby @240

EDH1-240.gif

That's a cracking mean from ECM, best I have seen all winter.

 

Edited by chris55
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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
1 minute ago, booferking said:

Ecm mean not to shabby @240

EDH1-240.gif

That is a very good mean from the ECM, looking forward to the ECM ensembles this evening.

Once more we are getting all the right signals from the models, but can they be trusted, after all the disappointments I think I will just take one day at the time until we enter the D4/5 range, then I will get the bottle of Chamagne that I bought today from Marks's and put into the fridge ready for a celebration when the flakes start to fall. I notice that a few of us have birthdays coming up, could be a white birthday week coming up for some if we are lucky. :D

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

I'm not so worried about ens when the operational is not interested - you should be worried no cause for concern yet. I've not had a scan through, but I bet there are some very wintry ones. Across the board it's looking pretty damn good (minus the GEM) which has been a real scarcity. Pretty good consensus on a cold bullet to the east the orientation of the blocking which looks pretty expansive, looks set to funnel rather severe cold into Eastern Europe at least IMO. Although details are still uncertain. If it can be advected to us which is certainly possible, then this will not be any standard cold spell it'll be premium once in xx type of stuff :wink:.

"Later in February and into March there are signs of a quieter and rather colder spell developing, but confidence remains low in the likelihood and details of this development." 

^ it's not as if cold signal is eluding the MetO. There's much to happy about if cold floats your boat. Understandable caution considering all that we've put through but I do not see a repeat.

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

Main issue preventing cold flooding in on ensembles appears to be low pressure setting up to our SW rather than south. Been there before this winter. Eventually, too much of a southerly influence gets in. For instance:

gens-20-1-240.png

looks good, but within a couple of days there may be too much Mediterranean air sucked in.

Still at D10, perhaps a little early to worry about that one. But it does explain why some 850s are not as high as they could be.

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

Although the Op is on the cold side its supported by the control and plenty of EPS members, this is de Bilt so imagine there are many saying an Easterly is game on. This is a huge upgrade on this mornings suite but still not enough for any confidence

IMG_4119.PNG

I would say about 25% support for the ECM op on the long range suite as posted below by winterog79

Edited by Ali1977
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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.

pluim_06260_10D.png

pluim_06260_15D.png

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk
1 hour ago, nick sussex said:

At last the ECM is joining our expedition!

We could still though do with losing that bloated troughing to the west, more sharpness increases our margin for error as that's more likely to disrupt energy se under the high.

With the MJO on the move and increasing in amplitude and the SSW we do have at least reasons to be optimistic that the models are reacting to that and we might yet see more westwards corrections, hopefully!

 

I'm still unconvinced as you say that energy just might help us or hinder us by God what a beautiful 240 chart but I'm still not convinced I reckon by Thursday Friday were know for sure as the lows will either stick over the uk or they might disrupt into France Spain area.

Which of coarse the latter would be a good start.

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Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
7 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

Ive seen some comments re the Ensembles :

Heres 2 very clear obsevations relating to the ENS from 16 years of model watching

* When a decent easterly does varify which of course is rare as hens teeth- so 2005,2009, etc - the ENS suite is ALWAYS 1 day behind the ops trend setter- to put this into context where we are now-

yesterday 12z GFS had one sub -10 run for london now the 06z has 3 / 4

same as ECM yesterday only having one cobra run- now the 00z has many more plus the control -

So ensemble means charts poinless in isolation, only good if your comparing trends along a time - say GFS 00z 156 V GFS 06z 150- your looking for incremental movements of the ENS towards the Ops - its been shown time & time again this winter than at this current time in resolution accuarcy that when there os significant change - the ENS cant handle it

As the ensembles are being posted the points Steve made earlier are coming to fruition. Ensembles coming round to the OPs

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

Hahaha. Bloody hell, here we go again then I suppose!

Cracking ECM and to some extent GFS this morning. One of the best Scandi heights i've seen in the models for literally years.

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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.

I posted earlier about watching the ensembles further east. Now much better support for a colder outcome compared to 24 hours ago when op was a wild outlier. Fingers crossed it pushes all the way west.

gefsens850Warsaw_Poland0 (6).png

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Looking at the wind directions on the ECM ensembles theres a strong cluster taking that towards the e/ne from around the 9th. The uncertainty might be more in relation to what kind of cold pooling develops to tap into.

The op might look like a bit of an outlier but its not a case of the ensembles seeing a raging Atlantic and the op being in the small minority, blocking is looking likely but its the more important detail re exactly how this sets up that's the main uncertainty.

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
24 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Main issue preventing cold flooding in on ensembles appears to be low pressure setting up to our SW rather than south. Been there before this winter. Eventually, too much of a southerly influence gets in. For instance:

gens-20-1-240.png

looks good, but within a couple of days there may be too much Mediterranean air sucked in.

Still at D10, perhaps a little early to worry about that one. But it does explain why some 850s are not as high as they could be.

Yes this is all important, I have posted about this a few times now, the low must move south of us, ideally setting up shop around Northern Italy/Switzerland. Too far south, or SE of us towards the Azores and our case is lost.

 

Thanks for posting the ensembles, certainly a big improvement compared too the ECM 00z suite.

Edited by snowray
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Posted
  • Location: Wellingborough
  • Weather Preferences: snow
  • Location: Wellingborough

Looking at the satellite images, looks like the west vs east battle has already begun. As some others have said , most promising charts of the season for deep cold. 

Screenshot_2017-01-31-21-34-52.png

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

Just to highlight the cold pooling in Eastern Europe on the ECM - this is Warsaws weather according to the ECM...Frigid.

IMG_4122.JPG

Edited by Ali1977
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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex

Will we get sucked in again? Last time, we had great ECM and GFS charts, virtual full ensemble agreement and support from anomalies - and it never happened!

Edited by Djdazzle
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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

Looking OK at 126.  Deep cold slightly closer than vs the 12z and moving WSW

.  gfsnh-0-126.pnggfsnh-1-126.png

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