Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..

[chris55]

I still can not get my head around this cold pool, it's spectacular!

[ribster]

7 minutes ago, booferking said:

Just like its been since Oct.

Yes and no, compare 168/192 with 216/240. Atlantic loses all its oomph, and block says excuse me, your'e going to have to shift over...

[JBMWeatherForever]

All of the models seem to be heading in the direction of an easterly at the moment. Lets hope the signals continue to strengthen and we finally get that Easterly that most of us have been wishing and hoping for. It's projected start would be just about on time for the Buchan Cold spell too ! 

[booferking]

That cold pool is bigger than 1991 & not far behind 1987 what could go wrong.

 

[booferking]

3 minutes ago, ribster said:

Yes and no, compare 168/192 with 216/240. Atlantic loses all its oomph, and block says excuse me, your'e going to have to shift over...

You can thank the azores high for that along with the monster block to the East.

[Summer Sun]

GFS Op on the cold side of the mean again

Question is will the mean and control move towards the colder Op in the coming days??

 

[Purga]

2 hours ago, bluearmy said:

I find the gem solution more plausible than the gfs 

don't expect to get too many likes for it but that's where the modelling is currently headed - fi ops will lead us a merry dance. 

Unless the ecm has a flip in 90mins then I don't expect my stance to change 

Well what do you think now BA?

And for the +264hr chart this is the St Albans 'now where the hell is my car??' chart.

Of course it's FI and there's 'a long way to go' etc. etc.. but by god it's fun again now...

Edited January 31, 2017 by Purga

[I remember Atlantic 252]

16 minutes ago, chris55 said:

I cant remember the last cold Valentines day...it has been at least a decade i reckon from memory or perhaps longer.

'79 looked legendary!

 

[Polar Maritime]

Some post have been hidden, Sensible model output discussion only in here please.

Thanks.

[chris55]

3 minutes ago, Sonnia said:

Evening guys,

The TV weather, newspapers and internet news are going ape about the incoming low for Friday, apparently it is going to be a big one.

I don't take too much notice until I have read about it on here.  But no one is on the case.  What's happening guys is it or isn't it ???

 

Well GFS op doesnt make much of it, and sends it over France as a weak feature, however BBC forecasts highlighting the uncertainty of track and intensity so just keep an eye on bbc forecast.

[Summer Sun]

GFS and UKMO extended are fairly close tonight at t168

[Singularity]

I must say this ECM 12z run fits very well with what you'd expect given the strength of the jet firing into Europe; the secondary lows resulting from trough disruption are quite vigorous for such systems, and while this means more mild air in the mix to begin with (Tuesday), it also means a stronger trough over or near Italy by Thursday, which helps advect the deep cold toward the UK. 

ECM then disrupts the next Atlantic trough pretty much ideally in terms of orientation and intensity of the sliding low. Such a perfect result is of course not a reasonable level to set the bar at, though we can certainly afford to set it higher than usual with impending easterly potential, given just how supportive the MJO has become (and what a trend it has been in recent days!) for restraining the Atlantic westerlies. Ironically perhaps, I'd not be surprised to see everything adjusted west such that we lose out on any frontal snow potential - but I doubt many would be complaining if we got decent streamers of the North Sea in the easterly flow. The North Sea is warmer than usual so... okay, I must stop getting ahead of myself!

Anyway, it's also worth taking note of the fact that GFS gets where it does despite displaying it's usual propensity for handling trough disruption poorly at the longer range.

Hmm. What to go for in the CET challenge...  

[Weathizard]

11 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

'79 looked legendary!

 

I believe this is what's known as the Murr Icelandic sausage 

Lack of ensemble support is of severe concern to me, we've seen this happen before and I would say more often than not the colder outcome doesn't come off, then again we saw earlier this winter ensemble support also can be wrong. I'm 50/50 on this one.

Anyone got a pair of tweezers to get the wood from the fence out my bottom?

[KTtom]

It's a shame IF isn't posting any more, we seem to have good continuity between the big 3 models, yet not a hint of this pattern materialising from the Met, unless I've missed something...be really interesting to know their thoughts and which model they back, or are they just wary of the tabloids if they mention the possibility of very cold conditions moving In? 

[Frosty.]

Rightly we (coldies) should be cautiously optimistic about FI but we need the experts on-board and they are not at the moment..in the meantime it looks generally unsettled and on the mild side with spells of wind and rain pushing in from the w / sw and potentially a spell of very wet and windy weather from the southwest during the coming weekend..one to watch.

Edited January 31, 2017 by Frosty.

[WillinGlossop]

38 minutes ago, JBMWeatherForever said:

All of the models seem to be heading in the direction of an easterly at the moment. Lets hope the signals continue to strengthen and we finally get that Easterly that most of us have been wishing and hoping for. It's projected start would be just about on time for the Buchan Cold spell too ! 

I went to Buchan School in 1991-94..... sorry model thread....

Edited January 31, 2017 by WillinGlossop

[Scott M]

Is it possible for the high pressure to retrogress to Greenland or is it more likely to link up with the Azores high. Just out of curiosity as I feel if it did then we would be more influenced by a s/sw wind rather than an e/se but I could be wrong I hope I am as I am in desperate need to see some cold weather before winter is over. 

[ACCOUNT DELETED]

22 minutes ago, chris55 said:

Well GFS op doesnt make much of it, and sends it over France as a weak feature, however BBC forecasts highlighting the uncertainty of track and intensity so just keep an eye on bbc forecast.

There's a lot of uncertainty over these secondary lows this weekend, some weather websites now suggest Sunday could turn stormy in the SW of the U.K. 

[mcweather]

Well I'm usually very excited to see charts like the one appearing in the mid term, however. The story of the winter so far is one of the ECM showing 1947esque charts at 240 only to lead us up the garden path as to the exact location of the cold pool a few days later so I am firmly on the fence on this one.  I very much hope that for all the cold and snow lovers on the forum that something akin to what is being shown by the gfs and ecm comes off but  I urge you not to hang your hats on this yet.

Unless the Met office extended outlook replaces  the words  'low chance'  for very cold weather later in feb with something a lot more substantial then I'd be very very  wary about letting the GFS or ECM flatter to deceive us yet again this winter.

Edited January 31, 2017 by mcweather

[January Snowstorm]

11 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Rightly we (coldies) should be cautiously optimistic about FI but we need the experts on-board and they are not at the moment..in the meantime it looks generally unsettled and on the mild side with spells of wind and rain pushing in from the w / sw and potentially a spell of very wet and windy weather from the southwest during the coming weekend..one to watch.

I think after this Winter the definition of expert is ? 

Every model and every lrf has been off the mark. I don't know why but this particular easterly looks more robust. Time will tell but for what it's worth I'm confident our change of luck has arrived

[Singularity]

12 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Rightly we (coldies) should be cautiously optimistic about FI but we need the experts on-board and they are not at the moment..in the meantime it looks generally unsettled and on the mild side with spells of wind and rain pushing in from the w / sw and potentially a spell of very wet and windy weather from the southwest during the coming weekend..one to watch.

It's true that the lack of Met Office support is of some concern, though they are responsible for so many socioeconomic sectors that arguably they have to be really sure indeed before they can go predicting much. The contingency planner's forecast does mention the easterly possibility but yes, not as the favourite yet.

There are a good few experts around who are talking of great potential though, so there's reason to be cheerful. In truth I dare not anticipate anything 'full on' just yet.

By the way, the weekend is actually looking rather cool or even chilly for the majority of the UK, with a chance of frosts overnight - all due to the UK languishing in polar maritime air while secondary lows track across or near to the south.

[Man With Beard]

Haven't seen a NOAA chart like this for a very, very long time. What with heights all over the Arctic and and signal for a north-based Scandi ridge / Greenland to Biscay oriented trough, it's teetering on the edge of a BOOM!

[Day 10]

Liam Dutton Verified account ‏@liamdutton

Well, well, well... Still a signal from weather models of a cold easterly wind bringing proper winter weather mid-Feb. One to watch!

Nice to see a TV weather presenter having a mini ramp!!

[snowray]

1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

GFS Op on the cold side of the mean again

Question is will the mean and control move towards the colder Op in the coming days??

 

Yes indeedy...and will the Met Office come on board with their further outlook 6-30days, todays update has not even a hint of an easterly in it.

[Day 10]

4 minutes ago, snowray said:

Yes indeedy...and will the Met Office come on board with their further outlook 6-30days, todays update has not even a hint of an easterly in it.

Darren Bett's currently in charge of it ....

Edited January 31, 2017 by Day 10