Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..

[Man With Beard]

T168 ... Just one more disruption needed....

[Ali1977]

ECM at 168 looking great, much better position of the block and more akin to the others. 192 is the key frame, maybe Bluearmy will change his thinking!! Or not if 192 isn't so good but that looks primed to my very novice eyes!! Looks like the Jet is about to dig south to our SW, should aid an undercut and an Easterly.

Edited January 31, 2017 by Ali1977

[chris55]

Its getting closer, so much to be decided yet, but for me the ECM up to 168 is pretty good, even if we have to wait for the northern arm to calm a little the building blocks are there for sure

[Captain Shortwave]

I am going to be honest, I personally think the Scandi high will verify for once this season, the problem at the moment is that the pattern is too far east.

That said the chances of the pattern backing west are certainly possible if the Atlantic trough disrupts. So all in all a cyclonic south to south westerly is favoured but that brutal easterly is there a possibility.

Both the ECM and UKMO bring a very cold airmass into eastern Europe at day 6, the GFS more watered down, the point being we can be a little patient with this one if the block verifies.

[Seasonality]

ECM smells the coffee

[chris55]

3 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

I am going to be honest, I personally think the Scandi high will verify for once this season, the problem at the moment is that the pattern is too far east.

That said the chances of the pattern backing west are certainly possible if the Atlantic trough disrupts. So all in all a cyclonic south to south westerly is favoured but that brutal easterly is there a possibility.

Both the ECM and UKMO bring a very cold airmass into eastern Europe at day 6, the GFS more watered down, the point being we can be a little patient with this one if the block verifies.

I agree with that, if the block verifies and doesn't sink, then we may just have to wait a little before the cold get sent towards our shores.

[Man With Beard]

T192 is very, very close to a 1991 set-up - but not quite. Can the next runner lock the pattern in?

[Ali1977]

So close to being vv good,cold air still filtering in from the SE and a big strong Scandy high 

[chris55]

Some crazy charts being churned out by the OPs!

Look at that cold pool!

[Ali1977]

I know some complain about tweets, however thought this is relevant to potential changes that lay ahead.

And what a beautiful Scandy high, poor Eastern Europe into the freezer once again - this time it looks more aligned to head our way.

Edited January 31, 2017 by Ali1977

[Singularity]

The key here is the MJO which should unlock the rarely opened door to a major block moving generally west from Asia via Scandinavia.

Good to see ECM making more of the second trough disruption. Euro low has improved in position and orientation a lot over the past day of runs.

A trickier aspect is how much undercut happens from the east side of the block. Prior to the Nov-Dec 2010 spell, the extent of that was vastly underestimated while at more than a week's range, but the models have had a great many tweaks since then so who knows if such foibles remains.

[Ali1977]

And - BOOOOM. What a chart, long big deep freeze if this came off. 

Edited January 31, 2017 by Ali1977

[booferking]

1987 or 1991 guys & Girls?? Are will it be known as the 2017 event.

Edited January 31, 2017 by booferking

[winterof79]

Dear Exeter....

 

 

[Matthew.]

Let's face it. If the easterly comes off from the ECM day 10 there'll be no more worries about snow.

 

[Guest]

Happy 40th Birthday to me.

[Scandinavian High.]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

And - BOOOOM

I new there would be a boom very interesting times ahead and not talking cold and dry but  snow fest.

[seabreeze86]

ECM are 240 hrs is simply stunning, with the Gfs and ukmo looking just as good. We are due some luck this winter that's for sure,  deep deep cold is knocking on the door again for continental Europe can we tap into it properly for the first time this winter. 

Edited January 31, 2017 by seabreeze86

[ribster]

Latter stages of the ECM have a bit of Gandalf about them, Atlantic stopped dead!

[cheshire snow]

-13 uppers just across the Channel at T240

C.S. 

Edit imagine if it were a mild outlier LOL

[Day 10]

I posted GFS P7 earlier as a bit of a joke and then the ECM says hang on I'm serious!!!

Not exact but you get the idea.

 

[booferking]

1 minute ago, ribster said:

Latter stages of the ECM have a bit of Gandalf about them, Atlantic stopped dead!

Just like its been since Oct.

[Stozzy]

Great charts , fingers crossed this easterly can get into the 96hr time frame . Fingers crossed 

[nick sussex]

At last the ECM is joining our expedition!

We could still though do with losing that bloated troughing to the west, more sharpness increases our margin for error as that's more likely to disrupt energy se under the high.

With the MJO on the move and increasing in amplitude and the SSW we do have at least reasons to be optimistic that the models are reacting to that and we might yet see more westwards corrections, hopefully!

 

[Matthew.]

Thing is this time it feels this output is on the money. MJO + decrease of zonal winds, weak vortex this could be the big one