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Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
7 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

ECM 168 even better!

 

ECH1-168.gif

That is not good high to far east and South we miss out again if it is anywhere near right.  That is exactly what has been happening all winter that chart hope it does not verify 192hr chart will not be great.

Edited by booferking
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
2 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

I think you need to change the lens in your glasses mate. This is just part of the transition, wait and see what 192 onwards will offer ; )

Look how far the real cold is anything from the west wouldn't last more than a few days

ECM0-192.GIF?30-0ECM1-192.GIF?30-0

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Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales

Yep, agree with most of the above, ECM sinking the high too far south. However, baring in mind the models performance so far this winter, I'm happy with gfs and UKMO agreeing against the ecm rather than the other way around.

Edited by KTtom
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Posted
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m
3 minutes ago, booferking said:

That is not good high to far east and South we miss out again if it is anywhere near right.  That is exactly has been happening all winter that chart hope it does not verify 192hr chart will not be great.

Sorry but all of your expectations are far too high, we are never going to get anything worthy within a 6-9 day time frame. It's after that, attempts 2 or 3 that will possibly deliver. In tune with what steve murr says and the met office's thoughts at around day 15+.

This is going to be a slow burner and take a few attempts, look at the big picture and be patient folks.

Edited by Harsh Climate
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Posted
  • Location: Pembrokeshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Pembrokeshire
11 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

ECM 168 even better!

 

ECH1-168.gif

come on guys lets get realistic - tone down the ramping - have we not learned anything - especially this winter

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
1 minute ago, Harsh Climate said:

Sorry but all of your expectations are far too high, we are never going to get anything worthy within a 6-9 day time frame. It's after that, attempts 2 or 3 that will possibly deliver. In tune with what steve murr says and the met office's thoughts at around day 15+.

This is going to be a slow burner and take a few attempts, look at the big picture and be patient folks.

You just said wait and see what 192+ has to offer when I said it was disappointing in comparison to other output - you can't have it all ways.

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Posted
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m
Just now, Mucka said:

You just said wait and see what 192+ has to offer when I said it was disappointing in comparison to other output - you can't have it all ways.

ECM 216 getting there

 

 ECH1-216.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m

Im sorry guys but this is why I tend to stay away from the model thread now, too many unfounded knee jerk reactions every single run, sometimes before a run has even fully come out.. O when will you learn :/

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Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
6 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

Sorry nut all of your expectations are far too high, we are never going to get anything worthy within a 6-9 day time frame. It's after that, attempts 2 or 3 that will possibly deliver. In tune with the met off ice thoughts too at around day 15+.

This is going to be a slow burner and take a few attempts, look at the big picture and be patient folks.

Im well patient just pointing out the 168hr chart that you said was better when infact it is not better than GFS 168hr chart?? Nothing was said about the ECM not getting there

 

Edited by booferking
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Just now, Harsh Climate said:

Your all saying ecm 192 is bad but look at the big picture (NH chart) The PV is now split

ECH1-192 (1).gif

 

No. Saying it is disappointing compared to UKMO and GFS. Slow burners are well and good but the slower and further into FI the evolution the more likely it doesn't happen.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Far too many uncertainties to the east/ne to have much confidence in any of the outputs. They all differ with how any blocking to the ne sets up and upstream the ECM has a less favourable view of the PV set up.

Unless you can detach any low pressure near the UK from low heights to the nw then its going to remain a stalemate, we need that PV lobe to edge further to the nw and stop feeding low pressure near the UK with energy.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
1 minute ago, Harsh Climate said:

Im sorry guys but this is why I tend to stay away from the model thread now, too many unfounded knee jerk reactions every single run, sometimes before a run has even fully come out.. O when will you learn :/

But you were the one posting 144 and 168 charts saying how good they were?

All I said was IMO they were disappointing compared to UKMO and GFS.

If you had waited until the end of the run and said you were happy with it because you are looking at the "big picture" or "long game" nobody would of batted an eye lid.

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Posted
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m
1 minute ago, Mucka said:

But you were the one posting 144 and 168 charts saying how good they were?

All I said was IMO they were disappointing compared to UKMO and GFS.

If you had waited until the end of the run and said you were happy with it because you are looking at the "big picture" or "long game" nobody would of batted an eye lid.

Yes they are good (144/168) because look what they lead to  ECH1-240 (1).gif : ))

 

But to the untrained eye they was poor because they wern't showing howling easterlies with deep snow. You get what I'm saying?

 

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Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales

Gfs op a bit of an outlier to say the least, both in temperatures and the trigger low ..(look at London ppn prior to Aberdeen temps dropping)

 

 

MT8_Aberdeen_ens.png

MT8_London_ens-26.png

Edited by KTtom
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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
8 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

Yes they are good (144/168) because look what they lead to  ECH1-240 (1).gif : ))

 

But to the untrained eye they was poor because they wern't showing howling easterlies with deep snow. You get what I'm saying?

 

Yep, got what your saying. Right off to train me eyes:rofl:

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

When all is said and done, a good set of 12z runs today and lots to look forward to.

JMA highlights the importance of the Italian low, we really want the centre of this LP to stay as far to the north of Italy (Genoa low) as possible, Switzerland would also be a very good place in fact for it to park its ass for a while, if it sinks, the high sinks and it ends up with happy days for Greek skying holidays on the Troodos mountains, and also on some of the beaches down there all over again.

J204-21.GIF

J192-21-1.GIF

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

I'd actually say the next 24 hours is massive. If this chart can get from T144 down to T120...

UN144-21.GIF?30-18

then we we're back in the snow game by the end of next week.

Even if not, the direction looks much better for mid-February cold than a few days ago.

 

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