Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..

[ACCOUNT DELETED]

It's getting difficult to keep up with those small but intense lows on the GFS.... 

Now showing gales/severe gales for S England and S & W Wales on Friday & Sunday. Hopefully the worst of the gusts will push through fairly swiftly. Things will probably change again though by the next run but it's a weekend that needs watching carefully in the south! 

[nick sussex]

We're getting closer! Better upstream and it could be the speed up in the forecasts of the MJO  allied with the SSW might start to be translated into the outputs.

 

[Singularity]

2 hours ago, nick sussex said:

That looks better than yesterdays forecast, the phase 5 composite looks quite close to both the ECM/GFS outputs which could suggest we're seeing the MJO impacting more on the NH pattern. NCEP update their overview later so hopefully that sticks to last weeks suggestions that we'll be seeing less interference on the MJO.

It's a big jump by GEFS, enough so that longer-term it's even more enthusiastic than ECMF for the phase 6-7-8 follow-up to the establishment of the blocking as the MJO emerges in phase 5.

Must. Remain. Skeptical. 

[SMU]

I wonder if we can get any 12z ENS to top this chart ( my chart of the winter )

[bobbydog]

The GFS may be having a laugh at our expense... but it does look nice 

[chionomaniac]

Good to see the UKMO tonight. Ever since that wave 2 was modeled I have been getting excited at the prospects - we still need a lot to fall in place, but it is like a lottery that is run every few years and we have more than a handful of tickets with this type of set up.

[Ali1977]

40 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

I wonder if we can get any 12z ENS to top this chart ( my chart of the winter )

At 174 there are plenty setting up for good FIs so maybe the 12z will have some similar - hopefully trending that way anyway.  There were 3 or 4 awesome FIs on the 6z so hopefully more on this run.

Edit - 12z ENS FI actually isn't as good as the 06Z, Op defo looks about the best.

Edited January 30, 2017 by Ali1977

[Froze were the Days]

Near day 10 on the GFS 12z and I'd say there is too much energy out west, needs stronger troughing nearer to Italy/Greece,  - High Pressure would simply slip southwards and all the real cold would stay well out to the east. Pointless I know talking about 1 op run though at least a trend is there compared to a few days ago. Fingers crossed for some cold uppers it really is about time!

[Summer Sun]

The 12z op is very much a cold outlier on the Aberdeen and Inverness ens

Still an outlier for London but not to the extreme of the above

[Hairy Celt]

2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

The 12z op is very much a cold outlier on the Aberdeen and Inverness ens

Still an outlier for London but not to the extreme of the above

The op isn't an outlier for London.

[Summer Sun]

Just now, Hairy Celt said:

The op isn't an outlier for London.

10th onwards it's the cold side of the mean

[TEITS]

22 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

Good to see the UKMO tonight. Ever since that wave 2 was modeled I have been getting excited at the prospects - we still need a lot to fall in place, but it is like a lottery that is run every few years and we have more than a handful of tickets with this type of set up.

What an excellent way to sum up the situation.

I am sitting quietly in the background following the model output, the UKMO has put a huge smile on my face.

[Methuselah]

From the GFS op, we might even be on for some more freezing fog!

[Allseasons-Si]

P4

nom! nom! nom!

[bluearmy]

the gfs 12z ens suite is a stronger atlantic run in general than the 06z was. be interesting to see how the gem ens and eps are later in this regard

[Summer Sun]

 

[Scandinavian High.]

2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

 

So where going in the right direction.

Quote

 

 

[Summer Sun]

This could be a nasty storm for parts of the south one to keep an eye on

[The Weather Dragon]

Some tasty looking charts to view in FI -need to get these into T120z - then we can really enjoy them 

[Harsh Climate]

ECM 144  very nice!

Edited January 30, 2017 by Harsh Climate

[Harsh Climate]

ECM 168 even better!

 

[Mucka]

3 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

ECM 168 even better!

 

Looks disappointing to me given other output.

[bluearmy]

would like to get the blocking further west as per ukmo - the ec run looks a bit strong on the northern arm though day 6-8 is early for developments so perhaps the progressive nature of ukmo and gem with the undercutting have drawn me in a bit

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Mucka said:

Looks disappointing to me given other output.

Agreed.Azores-high...

[Harsh Climate]

1 minute ago, Mucka said:

Looks disappointing to me given other output.

I think you need to change the lens in your glasses mate. This is just part of the transition, wait and see what 192 onwards will offer ; )